Kamala has the advantage over Biden that she doesn't face the senility issue that took him down.
Kamala's disadvantage is that unlike "Scranton Joe" in 2020, she's just another coastal "liberal" who seemingly offers nothing that might peel off any voters currently considering voting for Trump. Her appeal is entirely with people like media celebrities who were going to vote democrat anyway. She does little to grow the democratic tent which they need to do if they want to go up significantly in the polls.
Compare that to the Republicans' recent efforts (led in some large part by Trump) to reach out to the working class voters in the rust-belt midwest and to other historically democratic groups like socially conservative Hispanics.
Kyle Kondik of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia says
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalbal...-and-more/
"The argument for Harris’s upside is that she helps restore lagging Democratic enthusiasm and gives voters a new option in a race where many have long desired one...
One of Trump’s strengths in 2016—and weaknesses in 2020—was that he was seen as more ideologically conservative in the latter election than the former, as Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Alan Abramowitz noted after the election, using data from the American National Election Studies. “This shift was significant in that it placed Trump farther from the average voter than Joe Biden, while in 2016 Trump was considerably closer to the average voter than Hillary Clinton was,” Abramowitz wrote.
In Gallup’s June findings, 44% of respondents thought that Trump was “too conservative.”... But more viewed Biden as “too liberal,” 56%...
So while Biden’s age was clearly a big problem, and one that does not burden Harris (who is 59), age was not Biden’s sole problem. The perception that he was closer to the center than Trump in 2020 likely aided his victory, but the Gallup poll suggested that Biden no longer enjoyed that advantage over Trump.
Harris was not included in this Gallup poll, but it seems quite possible that the public will think of her as being as liberal or even more liberal than Biden, given that she is a California Democrat who tried to run to the left in her unsuccessful 2020 presidential bid... How Harris navigates these issues will be a big part of the campaign..."
Jul 23, 2024 11:42 PM
(This post was last modified: Jul 24, 2024 12:01 AM by Syne.)
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