Jun 22, 2024 12:17 AM
(This post was last modified: Jun 22, 2024 08:01 PM by C C.)
Well, finally, the whole or actual interview that an earlier Peter Zeihan video snip was taken from.
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https://youtu.be/VFPuv_OZDg0
VIDEO EXCERPTS: The bare bones, the idea that the structures that brought us everything in the last 75 years, is that they're dying. Unfortunately, that's pretty baked in at this point.
Well, let's unpack that, because one of the key planks you write about is the sort of end of globalization, a de-globalization. Why do you think that the world will shatter in terms of globalization? Why will that happen?
Well, there are two pieces of it. [...] The Americans, even if they wanted to, no longer have the naval structure to patrol the world. That's kind of piece one. Piece two is demographics [population collapse]...
But if America does withdraw and becomes more isolationist, you're writing about the days of long haul shipping being largely over, and quote “Expect state piracy to come back into vogue”. Now, are you seriously predicting a world where pirates roam the seas attacking container ships?
I would argue that we're already there to a certain degree. With what's going on in the Horn of Africa and with the Houthis in Arabia. We've also seen more activity, of course, in Southeast Asia as well. We're not to the point yet where a specific government is doing it.
But keep in mind, if you want the United States patrolling the global oceans, we need about 800 destroyers. We only have about 60. Now that we've retooled our Navy, we can't hold the seas open any longer. No one can.
[...] if you look at Trump, he's obviously going to be more isolationist. He's talked about threatening NATO's pact. He's talked about letting Russia kind of do what it likes. Whereas, Biden seems to have built something of an international coalition around helping Ukraine defend against Russia. He seems to have been more globalist. How much of this depends on the Trump Biden contest and your view?
I would argue that it's two sides of the same coin. I don't mean to suggest that the two leaders are the same on foreign policy. They're not. But on foreign economic policy, Biden's actually the more isolationist of the two.
In essence, we had four years of Donald Trump tweeting out a lot of things, but then never really putting his back into making policy, much less making it stick.
Biden is much more comfortable working with the tools of power and with the tools of the bureaucracy and when it comes to economic policy, trade barriers, tariffs, state policy, industrialization policy, national economic restrictions. He's been an order of magnitude more involved, and he's ensured that his policy set will outlive him. And what we're seeing in the United States right now is an open, direct confrontation between the left and the right about who can be more aggressive against trade and especially against China.
This isn't a contest between open and closed. This is a contest between two different versions of closed.
[...] Who's going to win [the POTUS election]?
Oh, Biden in a landslide.... MORE --> Why Trump will lead Republicans to historic defeat
The End of the World Is Just the Beginning (New Zealand program)
https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/VFPuv_OZDg0
- - - - - - - - - -
https://youtu.be/VFPuv_OZDg0
VIDEO EXCERPTS: The bare bones, the idea that the structures that brought us everything in the last 75 years, is that they're dying. Unfortunately, that's pretty baked in at this point.
Well, let's unpack that, because one of the key planks you write about is the sort of end of globalization, a de-globalization. Why do you think that the world will shatter in terms of globalization? Why will that happen?
Well, there are two pieces of it. [...] The Americans, even if they wanted to, no longer have the naval structure to patrol the world. That's kind of piece one. Piece two is demographics [population collapse]...
But if America does withdraw and becomes more isolationist, you're writing about the days of long haul shipping being largely over, and quote “Expect state piracy to come back into vogue”. Now, are you seriously predicting a world where pirates roam the seas attacking container ships?
I would argue that we're already there to a certain degree. With what's going on in the Horn of Africa and with the Houthis in Arabia. We've also seen more activity, of course, in Southeast Asia as well. We're not to the point yet where a specific government is doing it.
But keep in mind, if you want the United States patrolling the global oceans, we need about 800 destroyers. We only have about 60. Now that we've retooled our Navy, we can't hold the seas open any longer. No one can.
[...] if you look at Trump, he's obviously going to be more isolationist. He's talked about threatening NATO's pact. He's talked about letting Russia kind of do what it likes. Whereas, Biden seems to have built something of an international coalition around helping Ukraine defend against Russia. He seems to have been more globalist. How much of this depends on the Trump Biden contest and your view?
I would argue that it's two sides of the same coin. I don't mean to suggest that the two leaders are the same on foreign policy. They're not. But on foreign economic policy, Biden's actually the more isolationist of the two.
In essence, we had four years of Donald Trump tweeting out a lot of things, but then never really putting his back into making policy, much less making it stick.
Biden is much more comfortable working with the tools of power and with the tools of the bureaucracy and when it comes to economic policy, trade barriers, tariffs, state policy, industrialization policy, national economic restrictions. He's been an order of magnitude more involved, and he's ensured that his policy set will outlive him. And what we're seeing in the United States right now is an open, direct confrontation between the left and the right about who can be more aggressive against trade and especially against China.
This isn't a contest between open and closed. This is a contest between two different versions of closed.
[...] Who's going to win [the POTUS election]?
Oh, Biden in a landslide.... MORE --> Why Trump will lead Republicans to historic defeat
The End of the World Is Just the Beginning (New Zealand program)