Israel-Gaza War (and Iranian Distractions)

[Yazata]

The Jerusalem Post is reporting that the execution of Ismail Haniyeh wasn't a missile strike at all. It was a bomb smuggled into Haniyeh's apartment in the IRGC guesthouse by an Israeli agent. If this is true, as it apparently is, it suggests that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps security is as bad as the US Secret Service.

[Yazata]

Following services in Tehran today, Ismail Haniyeh's body has arrived in Doha Qatar for burial tomorrow.

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Iran has issued a warning that any Arab state that allows Israeli aircraft to cross its airspace to attack Iran will be attacked by Iran in reply.

The United States has significant naval forces in the broader region. This includes the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) nuclear powered aircraft carrier accompanied by six Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyers. This Carrier Battle Group had been operating south of Yemen, but it may have moved east off Oman, closer to Iran. Word is that this battle group is positioned to help defend friendly states in the Persian Gulf region, should they be attacked by Iran.

The USS Wasp (LHD 1) itself a small aircraft carrier and its Amphibious Battle Group consisting of two amphibious landing ships, 2,500 US Marines and two more escorting guided missile destroyers is near the coast of Lebanon, tasked with civilian evacuations should that become necessary.

[Yazata]

Israel has confirmed that a July 13 airstrike on a Hamas compound near Khan Yunis in central Gaza succeeded in killing Mohammed Deif, the head of Hamas' military wing.

I'm getting the impression that as a military force, Hamas is largely disrupted. They have little centralized command and control left. Of the ~15,000 Hamas fighters pre-war, only a few thousand remain and these are incapable of large organized actions and are operating in small squad size units, largely on their own, with whatever arms and ammunition they can find or had hidden away. About all they can do is mount ambushes of passing Israeli patrols.

With no police or organized government in Gaza, we've also seen the rise of criminal gangs separate from Hamas. These have mostly been stealing international aid (including most of the aid the US has supplied) then reselling it on the black market. It's kind of a Mad Max existence in Gaza right now.

[Zinjanthropos]

The Jerusalem Post is reporting that the execution of Ismail Haniyeh wasn't a missile strike at all. It was a bomb smuggled into Haniyeh's apartment in the IRGC guesthouse by an Israeli agent. If this is true, as it apparently is, it suggests that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps security is as bad as the US Secret Service.

I was thinking that Mossad pays Iranian field operatives more than they make as a Revolutionary guard.

[Yazata]

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[Yazata]

The official X account of Iran's 'Supreme Leader' Ayatollah Khamenei has pinned a post saying "The Zionist Regime is gone".

The news anchor of Iranian channel 3 TV says "In coming hours, the world will witness extraordinary scenes and very important developments".

Israeli cabinet ministers and other high ranking officials have been issued emergency satellite phones, in case Israeli government communications are disrupted by physical or cyber attack.

The US embassy in Jerusalem has put out this security alert for Americans in Israel:

https://il.usembassy.gov/security-alert-...usalem-24/

Reports of Israeli airstrikes in the Bekaa valley of northeastern Lebanon, targeting a large convoy of trucks carrying Iranian supplied arms from Syria to Hezbollah. The Israelis also appear to have struck a Syrian air base outside the Syrian city of Homs where Iranian aircraft were flying in the arms.

[Yazata]

It's unclear when the Iranian and Hezbollah attack will come. But it's expected that when it does, it will feature many more ballistic missiles and fewer drones than last time. The attack is expected to come in waves  and last several days. The Iranians hope to do real damage to Israel this time.

And for their part, the Israelis have stated that if they suffer significant damage or loss of life, it will mean full-scale war. So the danger of escalation is very real.

The USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) and its battle group is reported to be heading to the Middle East. US air force and land based anti-ballistic missile assets are headed there as well. It's unclear whether the US will strike Iran if war breaks out, or whether we will just try to protect our friends from Iranian strikes. But if the Iranians cripple or sink a US warship, it might be hard for us to restrain ourselves from hitting Iran and the US will have a new and bloody hot war on its hands with a country that likely has a small arsenal of nuclear weapons.

And Israel has nuclear weapons as well, and is prepared to use them if they believe that the survival of their small state is threatened.

US reconaissance satellites should be able to spot the Iranians deploying their ballistic missiles to launch sites and readying them. So the Pentagon and Israel will have some warning that attack is immanent. The first indication visible to the public might be airspace closures. Right now, air traffic in Iran is reasonably normal.

[Zinjanthropos]

It's unclear when the Iranian and Hezbollah attack will come. But it's expected that when it does, it will feature many more ballistic missiles and fewer drones than last time. The attack is expected to come in waves  and last several days. The Iranians hope to do real damage to Israel this time.

And for their part, the Israelis have stated that if they suffer significant damage or loss of life, it will mean full-scale war. So the danger of escalation is very real.

The USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) and its battle group is reported to be heading to the Middle East. US air force and land based anti-ballistic missile assets are headed there as well. It's unclear whether the US will strike Iran if war breaks out, or whether we will just try to protect our friends from Iranian strikes. But if the Iranians cripple or sink a US warship, it might be hard for us to restrain ourselves from hitting Iran and the US will have a new and bloody hot war on its hands with a country that likely has a small arsenal of nuclear weapons.

And Israel has nuclear weapons as well, and is prepared to use them if they believe that the survival of their small state is threatened.

US reconaissance satellites should be able to spot the Iranians deploying their ballistic missiles to launch sites and readying them. So the Pentagon and Israel will have some warning that attack is immanent. The first indication visible to the public might be airspace closures. Right now, air traffic in Iran is reasonably normal.

Sounds like it’s going to happen with repercussions so why not go on the offensive?

[Yazata]

The Wall Street Journal is reporting:

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Graphic by Elint news

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[Yazata]

The UK is instructing all British individuals in Lebanon to leave immediately.

British military forces are positioned to aid in an evacuation should that become necessary. These include a landing ship, the RFA Cardigan Bay, and a guided missile destroyer HMS Duncan, both off the coast of Lebanon. There are also RAF transport helicopters in the British bases in nearby Cyprus.