Israel-Gaza War (and Iranian Distractions)

[Yazata]

Last night, HMS Diamond, a Daring class air defense destroyer of the British royal navy, shot down a Houthi attack drone that was targeting a nearby commercial ship.

Royal navy photo

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Tonight, the USS Carney engaged a whole wave of 14 Houthi drones headed for nearby ships and shot them all down.

There was no damage or injuries in either of these attacks.

https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1736035863849824595

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[Yazata]

Unnamed "US officials" say that the US will be announcing sometime next week a "major multinational mission" to be called "Operation Prosperity Garden".

And it was announced today. It's named "Operation Prosperity Guardian" (not 'Garden').

It's still unclear what its precise mission will be. I'm guessing it will be an international coalition and probably a unified command structure providing naval escorts for commercial shipping.

Participating countries include the United States, United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain. Apart from Bahrain and the Seychelles (which has no navy to speak of) these are the NATO countries with the most capable navies. I notice that Germany is absent. While this isn't a NATO operation, most of the participating navies exercise with each other regularly and have joint operations down.

It's interesting that Japan isn't participating, despite its heavy use of the Red Sea trade route. China also isn't a participant, despite having several warships in the Red Sea area. That might be because China and Iran are friendly and Beijing doesn't want to hurt that relationship. It's also notable that India isn't listed.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Re...edom-of-n/

[Yazata]

Participating countries include the United States, United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain.

A reporter for Politico is claiming that an unnamed US official told her that in addition to these ten countries, there are nine more countries participating in Prosperity Guardian, that don't want their participation made public.

If this is true, I'd guess that one of the nine is Saudi Arabia, which has been fighting a war with the Houthis for years now. They might not want to be seen fighting on the same side as Israel for domestic political reasons. Others might include places like the United Arab Emirates (who have also been fighting the Houthis) and (conceivably) Egypt (whose economy depends on Suez canal revenues).

[Yazata]

Fairly reliable reports indicate that both the United States and the United Kingdom are moving air and naval assets into the vicinity of Yemen, apparently in preparation for possible strikes against the Houthis.

The Houthis respond: "We will retaliate against any U.S. attack on our country, and we will make U.S. battleships, interests, and ships a target for our missiles, drones and military operations... they will face worse than what they faced in Afghanistan and Vietnam."

Talk is that the United Arab Emirates is agitating for an international attack on the Houthis (who the UAE have been fighting for some time).

Meanwhile Saudi Arabia (who are also fighting the Houthis) appear to fear a wider mideast war. If the talk is true, then my guess is that they fear that Iran might do something if Iran's Houthi clients in Yemen are molested.

[Yazata]

Operation Prosperity Guardian might already be falling apart, before it had even begun. France, Spain and Italy have all withdrawn saying that they will only participate under NATO or EU command, but not American command. But Australia and Greece have joined.

Of course all three of the defecting countries were only making small contributions. One French destroyer and one frigate each from Italy and Spain. Most of the Prosperity Guardian naval muscle by far is American (1 carrier, 1 cruiser and 5 Arleigh Burke guided missile destroyers), plus one British destroyer and a Greek frigate. Most of these countries have additional ships nearby that weren't assigned to Prosperity Guardian. Canada is listed as a participant, but no Canadian ships seem to be in the area at present. Australia has signed on but no Australian ships are nearby. The Netherlands, Norway and Denmark are signed up but have no ships assigned. India, Japan, South Korea and China all have ships in the vicinity but aren't participating in Prosperity Guardian.

So the whole thing looks totally disorganized. The US seems to have tried to create some organization, but it's proved to be like herding cats.

Schizointel did this very good graphic:

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[Zinjanthropos]

If by some miracle Israel gets taken out, who gets the spoils? Would the Arab Muslim countries duke it out, winner take all? Arab states unite to get rid of Hamas forever? Who wins?

[Yazata]

Report of a drone attack on an unidentified ship in the northwest Indian ocean, closer to India than Yemen. A Merchant vessel says it was hit and suffered an explosion and fire, but no casualties. They have extinguished the fire.

It seems unlikely (but possible) that the attack drone was launched from far-away Yemen. Pakistan or Iran are both closer. Or (perhaps most likely) from another ship at sea.

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[Yazata]

The ship that was struck near India has been identified as a Liberian-flagged/Japanese-owned tanker called Chem Pluto. It was carrying petrochemicals from Saudi Arabia to India. It is currently being assisted by Indian naval vessels. Damage to the Chem Pluto is said to be minor and none of the 20 Indian crew members aboard was injured.

Unnamed sources (edit now said to be Israeli intelligence sources) are saying that they believe it was attacked by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard corps, and not by the Houthis (who function as an extension of the IRGC). These sources believe that the drone was launched from an Iranian ship.

If it is true that the Iranians launched the attack directly, and not indirectly by one of their many proxies, it could be a significant escalation of the mideast hostilities.

Edit - 2 - the Wall Street Journal is reporting that the US Department of Defense confirms that the drone that struck the Chem Pluto was launched by the Iranian military.

[Yazata]

The US Central Command just put out this:

"On December 23 two Houthi anti-ship ballistic missiles were fired into international shipping lanes in the Southern Red Sea from Houthi controlled areas of Yemen. No ships reported being impacted by the ballistic missiles.

Between 3 and 8 p.m. (Sanaa time), the USS LABOON (DDG 58) was patrolling in the Southern Red Sea as part of Operation PROSPERITY GUARDIAN (OPG) and shot down four unmanned aerial drones originating from Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen that were inbound to the USS LABOON. There were no injuries or damage in this incident.

At approximately 8 p.m. (Sanaa time), U.S. Naval Forces Central Command received reports from two ships in the Southern Red Sea that they were under attack. The M/V BLAAMANEN, a Norwegian-flagged, owned, and operated chemical/oil tanker, reported a near miss of a Houthi one-way attack drone with no injuries or damage reported. A second vessel, the M/V SAIBABA, a Gabon-owned, Indian-flagged crude oil tanker, reported that it was hit by a one-way attack drone with no injuries reported. The USS LABOON (DDG 58) responded to the distress calls from these attacks. These attacks represent
the 14th and 15th attacks on commercial shipping by Houthi militants since Oct. 17."

USS Laboon (US navy photo)

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[Yazata]

Yesterday, the Israel Defense force put out this

"In recent weeks, the 551st Brigade of the 162nd Division secured control of the area of the Jabalya camp – one of Hamas’ operational centers in the Gaza Strip. The operations included fierce battles during which many terrorists were killed by IDF soldiers and hundreds of weapons were located.

As part of the operation, and following advanced intelligence, the soldiers, in cooperation with the Multidimensional Unit and the Yahalom Unit, exposed a strategic tunnel network that served as Hamas’ northern headquarters in Gaza. The underground headquarters, which included two levels – the first approximately 10 meters deep and the second dozens of meters deep. The tunnel network, with many routes, was used for directing combat and the movement of terrorists. At the depth of the military headquarters, weapons, infrastructure for manufacturing weapons, and emergency hideouts were found. The network was connected to a shaft leading to the residence of the Commander of Hamas’ Northern Brigade, Ahmad Andur. The underground network also passed beneath a school and a hospital.

In a centralized intelligence effort, led by Unit 504 of the Intelligence Directorate, the soldiers located and recovered the bodies of five hostages abducted on October 7th and brought them to be buried in Israel: Warrant Officer Ziv Dado, Sergeant Ron Sherman, Corporal Nik Beizer, Eden Zacharia, and Elia Toledano. May their memory be a blessing.

The findings were presented to the families by IDF representatives. The IDF expresses its condolences to the bereaved families and will continue to accompany them. The IDF, in cooperation with other security organizations, is continuing to act through a variety of intelligence and operational means to return the hostages.

Upon completion of this mission, the forces dismantled the subterranean headquarters. The demolition of the headquarters in Jabalya is part of the effort to deal with Hamas’ tunnel infrastructure and to strike at its senior commanders and its strategic capabilities. This effort is continuing at all times and is now being carried out in Khan Yunis and the southern Gaza Strip."

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And this morning, the Israeli air force conducted a precision-targeted air strike on a location in the outskirts of Damascus Syria that succeeded in killing General Reza Mousavi of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, who was in Syria overseeing IRGC support for Hezbollah.

The President of Iran confirms Mousavi's death and vows retaliation, saying Israel will "pay the price".

Israel is now on hightened alert in anticipation of Iran doing something.

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