Israel-Gaza War (and Iranian Distractions)

[Yazata]

The US State Department has raised their travel advisory for Lebanon to Level 4 - Do not travel.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/...isory.html

They say:

"Raised to Level 4 and updated to reflect the authorized departure of family members of U.S. government personnel and some non-emergency personnel on a case-by-case basis.

Do Not travel to Lebanon due to the unpredictable security situation related to rocket, missile, and artillery exchanges between Israel and Hizballah or other armed militant factions. Reconsider travel to Lebanon due to terrorism, civil unrest, armed conflict, crime, kidnapping, and Embassy Beirut’s limited capacity to provide support to U.S. citizens.

On, October 17, 2023, the Department authorized the voluntary, temporary departure of family members of U.S. government personnel and some non-emergency personnel from U.S. Embassy Beirut due to the unpredictable security situation in Lebanon.

Do Not Travel to:

the border with Syria due to terrorism and armed conflict
the border with Israel due to the potential for armed conflict
refugee settlements due to the potential for armed clashes
Country Summary: Terrorist groups continue plotting possible attacks in Lebanon. Terrorists may conduct attacks with little or no warning targeting tourist locations, transportation hubs, markets/shopping malls, and local government facilities.

The Lebanese government cannot guarantee the protection of U.S. citizens against sudden outbreaks of violence. Family, neighborhood, or sectarian disputes can escalate quickly and can lead to gunfire or other violence with no warning. Armed clashes have occurred along the borders, in Beirut, and in refugee settlements. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) have been brought in to quell the violence in these situations.

Large demonstrations have erupted in the wake of recent violence in Israel and Gaza. U.S. citizens should avoid demonstrations and exercise caution if in the vicinity of any large gatherings or protests as some of these have turned violent. Protesters have blocked major roads, including thoroughfares between downtown Beirut and the area where the U.S. Embassy is located, and between Beirut and Beirut Rafic Hariri International Airport.

Local security authorities have noted a rise in violent crimes, including political violence. Multiple unsolved killings in Lebanon may have been politically motivated. U.S. citizens living and working anywhere in Lebanon should be aware of the risks of remaining in the country and review their personal security plans.

U.S. citizens who choose to travel to Lebanon should be aware that consular officers from the U.S. Embassy are not always able to travel to assist them. The Department of State considers the threat to U.S. government personnel in Beirut sufficiently serious to require them to live and work under strict security. The internal security policies of the U.S. Embassy may be adjusted at any time and without advance notice.

Kidnapping, whether for ransom, political motives, or family disputes, has occurred in Lebanon. Suspects in kidnappings may have ties to terrorist or criminal organizations."

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I wouldn't put it beyond Hamas to bomb their own hospital, in order to garner international sympathy to curb Israel from annihilating them. If not, Israel gave plenty of warning for civilians, while Hamas told civilians to stay and even blocked roads out. Either way, the blood is solely on Hamas' hands.

I thought that too. I can't see the Israelis intentionally targeting a hospital, especially with the POTUS flying in. It wouldn't give them any military advantage and it woud create trouble with countries like Egypt and Jordan. So if the Israelis were responsible, it was probably an accident. The Israelis use lots of precisely targeted smart bombs, but when you drop so many, some are gong to go awry.

Right now, the consensus seems to be that it was a rocket fired from Gaza that failed early in its flight and fell back on the city. From the videos, it didn't seem to land with the explosive bang one would expect of an Israeli bomb, but it burned more forcefully. Which suggests to me a smaller warhead along with burning rocket propellant.

[Yazata]

Video of the supposedly destroyed hospital by Gazans themselves show a burned parking lot but very little structural damage to the buildings all around. At worst blown out windows.

Maxar says that their satellite imagery shows the same thing.

The lack of any obvious bomb crater and surrounding blast damage suggests that whatever hit the parking lot wasn't a conventional bomb. I'm inclined to think it was a failed rocket whose propellant burned intensely after it hit.

So it appears very doubtful to me that anything like 500 people died here.

The whole thing looks to me like a very effective bit of propaganda exploiting their own screw-up. And that wouldn't have worked without so much of "responsible journalism" running with the story without any corroboration at all, simply because it suited their favored narrative.

[Image: F8uG8XpWwAA5g6J?format=jpg&name=large]

[stryder]

Video of the supposedly destroyed hospital by Gazans themselves show a burned parking lot but very little structural damage to the buildings all around. At worst blown out windows.

Maxar says that their satellite imagery shows the same thing.

The lack of any obvious bomb crater and surrounding blast damage suggests that whatever hit the parking lot wasn't a conventional bomb. I'm inclined to think it was a failed rocket whose propellant burned intensely after it hit.

So it appears very doubtful to me that anything like 500 people died here.

The whole thing looks to me like a very effective bit of propaganda exploiting their own screw-up. And that wouldn't have worked without so much of "responsible journalism" running with the story without any corroboration at all, simply because it suited their favored narrative.

[Image: F8uG8XpWwAA5g6J?format=jpg&name=large]

Watching a video of the missile in flight, it looks and acts very similar to an western anti-armour manpats round. (In the anti-armour usage it flies above it's target before firing off it's payload down at it with a secondary thruster.) The one in the video behaves similar to the western variety, however it doesn't mean that the munitions couldn't have been captured from somewhere else (Ukraine/Syria/Afghanistan) to be used or reverse engineered and recreated in a rogue state (need I list them).

As for it's target/targetting... I'd assume western munitions are guided via laser designator and/or possible switch to heat sensors when out of range... If the car in the carpark had just arrived or had been idling for a while, it's hood(bonnet) would of been hot from the engine, which would of likely been the highest heat output in the area.

edit: Could be a Spike LR2, if thats the case it's possible someone on the Israeli side got bored and wanted to peak at what was going on, rather than sending a drone over though, shot a missile.

[RainbowUnicorn]

what is the failure rate of Palestinian Islamic jihad & Hamas Rockets ?
must be fairly high

Stryder
what it looks like is the laser hitting the rocket & cutting it in half
but its out of range of the laser
engine explosion i am guessing

its bound to happen again and must have already happened a few times considering how many rockets have been launched by Palestine islamic jihad & Hamas.

looking at the picture im guessing the actual casualty rate is around 100 to 150 dead and maybe 200 injured

im guessing Hamas will be adding the dead bodies of Hamas into the dead body counts to hide their dead terrorists.

[Syne]

Yeah, looks like very little impact/explosive damage and a lot of fire damage. Not in line with the sort of munitions Israel uses. And no one's going to convince me 500 people were crowded into that relatively small parking lot.

[RainbowUnicorn]

Hamas have changed their figures to say 471 dead and 350 or soo injured

would be a bit of a tight squeeze to get that many people into that space, you would need to be stacking people on top of each other

[Syne]

Hamas claimed 500 within minutes of the strike, where Israel didn't know the casualty figures for a week. It's faster to make up a lie than to find the facts.

Failed Hamas rocket launches landing in Gaza:

[Image: 6f6f58cd-e8e9-4777-9031-7a68d1248bbb-1024x539.jpg]

[Yazata]

The US state department has issued a worldwide caution advisory to US travelers.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/...ution.html

"Worldwide Caution

Due to increased tensions in various locations around the world, the potential for terrorist attacks, demonstrations or violent actions against U.S. citizens and interests, the Department of State advises U.S. citizens overseas to exercise increased caution. U.S. citizens should:

Stay alert in locations frequented by tourists.
Enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to receive information and alerts and make it easier to locate you in an emergency overseas.
Follow the Department of State on Facebook and Twitter."

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The Pentagon confirms that three cruise missiles and eight long range drones were shot down headed north over the Red Sea by the US Arleigh Burke class destroyer USS Carney. The missiles and drones appear to have been launched by the Houthis in Yemen (Shi'ite rebels armed by Iran) and it's assumed they were headed to Israel. Just yesterday the Houthis announced that they would be entering the war against Israel.

The Carney is part of the Gerald Ford carrier battle group in the eastern Mediterranean and it just transited the Suez canal headed south on Wednesday Oct 18.

An interesting aspect of this that initially caused some skepticism about the report is that the Houthis weren't known to have any weapons with the range necessary to reach Israel. But Iran does. So the Iranians must have supplied the Houthis with weapons that nobody knew about.

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USS Carney

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[C C]

[...] The Pentagon confirms that three cruise missiles and eight long range drones were shot down headed north over the Red Sea by the US Arleigh Burke class destroyer USS Carney. The missiles and drones appear to have been launched by the Houthis in Yemen [...] Just yesterday the Houthis announced that they would be entering the war against Israel. [...]

I doubt Israel has enough nuclear bombs to be satisfactorily inclusive for everybody who wants to join.

[Yazata]

Canada has joined the United States in issuing a 'do not travel' advisory for Lebanon.

https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/lebanon

For Israel, Canada has a 'avoid non-essential travel' rating, with 'do not travel' for Gaza, the West Bank, and the borders with Syria, Gaza, Lebanon and Egypt

https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/israel...gaza-strip

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There were several attacks on US facilities in Iraq and Syria today.

Two rockets were fired at the US transport facilities at Baghdad International airport. A CIWS (close-in-weapon-system) hit one of the rockets but the other hit the base. Damage is described as minimal and there are no US casualties. The airport is still open.

There was some kind of attack on the Ain AlAsad airbase in western Iraq that caused air raid sirens to sound. Reports that one American died (a civilian contractor) but the cause of death was a heart attack.

An oil field operated by the Kurds in eastern Syria where American soldiers are also present came under attack at least twice. Unclear whether there were casualties.