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Article  Are coincidences real?
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#52
Syne Offline Nov 8, 2025 05:55 AM
Right, a sign.
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#53
Zinjanthropos Offline Nov 8, 2025 03:08 PM (This post was last modified: Nov 8, 2025 03:13 PM by Zinjanthropos.)
Is someone says “ Hey, I’m thinking about something running” and that was immediately followed by observing a critter running or if instead someone says “ Hey, thinking I haven’t seen any squirrels running lately” quickly followed by observing a running squirrel then should both of these scenarios be classified as a coincidence? Is one more coincidental than the other?

Thinking they are but if one is more improbable than the other then perhaps there are different degrees of coincidences, idk.
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#54
C C Offline Nov 8, 2025 08:05 PM (This post was last modified: Nov 8, 2025 08:17 PM by C C.)
(Nov 8, 2025 03:08 PM)Zinjanthropos Wrote: [...] Thinking they are but if one is more improbable than the other then perhaps there are different degrees of coincidences, idk.

Based on how rapidly two or more "spuriously related" events coincide or how far apart they are in time, we can always have informal rankings, whether the establishment recognizes such or not.

I don't know where the post about it is now, but it seems like someone even once worked out a pattern of how normally rare or sparsely occurring coincidences can cyclically explode into a spasm of many coincidental events jammed into a few days or even multiple weeks. Then the frequency tumbles back into low density.
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#55
Syne Offline Nov 8, 2025 08:13 PM
(Nov 8, 2025 03:08 PM)Zinjanthropos Wrote: Is someone says “ Hey, I’m thinking about something running” and that was immediately followed by observing a critter running or if instead someone says “ Hey, thinking I haven’t seen any squirrels running lately” quickly followed by observing a running squirrel then should both of these scenarios be classified as a coincidence? Is one more coincidental than the other?

Thinking they are but if one is more improbable than the other then perhaps there are different degrees of coincidences, idk.

The extra specificity of "squirrels" would make that less probable than the more generic "something."
Without that difference in specificity, there would be no appreciable difference in probability.
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