Article Are coincidences real?

[Magical Realist]

No, the gambler's fallacy is believing "you're due for a win," "this slot machine is about to pay off," "this table is hot," etc.. When has anyone ever thought "I'm due for a coincidence"? No one's waiting for a coincidence, so it can't be a gambler's fallacy.

People wait and look for signs all the time for whatever reason. And they often find them. In any case, if an event is not made less likely to happen again over time by happening, then how is it made more likely to happen by not happening? The slot machine that hits jackpot is not suddenly less likely of hitting jackpot again. Likewise a rare coincidence is not made more likely because it hasn't occurred. Of course one can always arbitrarily enlarge one's definition of "trials" to make the coincidence seem more likely. Like saying because it hasn't occurred once in a billion trials it is more likely to occur than once in a million trials. But the objective improbability of that coincidence remains unchanged.

[Syne]

When I read SS post I thought of Tootles in the movie Hook, receiving his lost marbles from Peter Pan. So I’m on the lookout today for someone to say tootles to me, hear it on media or it shows up on a word puzzle should I attempt one. Not counting on it…lol

Well, if you're looking for coincidence, at least that would qualify as MR's gambler fallacy.

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No, the gambler's fallacy is believing "you're due for a win," "this slot machine is about to pay off," "this table is hot," etc.. When has anyone ever thought "I'm due for a coincidence"? No one's waiting for a coincidence, so it can't be a gambler's fallacy.

People wait and look for signs all the time for whatever reason. And they often find them. In any case, if an event is not made less likely to happen again over time by happening, then how is it made more likely to happen by not happening? The slot machine that hits jackpot is not suddenly less likely of hitting jackpot again. A coincidence is not made more likely because it hasn't occurred. Of course one can always arbitrarily enlarge one's definition of trials to make the coincidence seem more likely. Like saying because it hasn't occurred once in a billion trials it is more likely to occur once in a million trials. But the objective improbability of that coincidence remains unchanged.

The difference between a coincidence and a sign depends on whether you interpret the event as having personal, meaningful significance versus being a random occurrence. A sign is often seen as a "meaningful coincidence" called synchronicity. While a coincidence is simply an unexpected convergence of events, a sign is an event that aligns with your inner state or a perceived message from a higher power. Some scientific perspectives suggest that events perceived as signs are often the result of confirmation bias, while others believe they are genuine messages or part of a larger pattern.

People can definitely be primed to see signs. This phenomenon is rooted in several psychological principles, primarily priming, confirmation bias, and apophenia (or patternicity), which all influence how we perceive and interpret random events.
- Google AI

Looking/waiting for signs is self-priming, at best.
Probability distributions hold over any sufficiently large number of samples. On a distribution bell curve, many occurrences will cluster/repeat nearer to the mean. But the bottom of the bell curve includes very unlikely occurrences, which eventually do occur. As the probability space is filled (more samples), the lesser probabilities do become more likely.

The law of truly large numbers (LLN) states that as a random event is repeated many times, the average of the outcomes will converge to the expected value. The gambler's fallacy is the mistaken belief that a short-term deviation in a random sequence (like a coin flip streak) must be "corrected" by the next few outcomes. The LLN applies to the long-term average, while the gambler's fallacy is a misunderstanding of how individual, independent events work in the short term.
- Google AI

So your argument that "The slot machine that hits jackpot is not suddenly less likely of hitting jackpot again" is a short-term argument. Hence "suddenly." There is no "sudden" change in the probability distribution.

[Magical Realist]

The difference between a coincidence and a sign depends on whether you interpret the event as having personal, meaningful significance versus being a random occurrence. A sign is often seen as a "meaningful coincidence" called synchronicity. While a coincidence is simply an unexpected convergence of events, a sign is an event that aligns with your inner state or a perceived message from a higher power. Some scientific perspectives suggest that events perceived as signs are often the result of confirmation bias, while others believe they are genuine messages or part of a larger pattern.

People can definitely be primed to see signs. This phenomenon is rooted in several psychological principles, primarily priming, confirmation bias, and apophenia (or patternicity), which all influence how we perceive and interpret random events.

- Google AI

In my experience synchronicities do not necessarily have some hidden meaning or message. The endless echos of my read or thought about words by the TV at roughly the same time doesn't seem to me to be a sign for me personally. Rather I am tapping into a level of reality going on that we aren't ordinarily aware of. Not just random coincidence but not a message either. Rather a kind of reflectivity or symmetry of the mind to the outside physical world. The tacitly-intuited unity of what is happening inside me and what is happening outside of me. "As above so below".

[Syne]

Ah, but that is a hidden meaning for you. You believe it makes you special. It's a sign of your supposed "tapping into a level of reality."

[Magical Realist]

It would only be a sign or message if it was sent from another intelligence. The fact that it is just something that happens as a result of spontaneous thinking and happens to everyone every now and then entails it does not make me special.

[Syne]

No, people think they see signs all the time. Seeing Jesus in a piece of toast doesn't require anyone sending a message. It's just magical thinking in lieu of reason. You thinking you're "tapping into something," itself, is you attributing more significance.

[Magical Realist]

LOL If someone only thinks they see a sign but it isn't, then it isn't a sign either. But then you're just here to bitch and nitpick obviously. Quit trolling my posts.

[Syne]

No, if someone thinks they see a sign.. or are "tapping into something".... they are delusional. There is no way to verify that a "sign" came from anywhere.
You're obviously just starting to whine because you don't like where this logic is leading. Quit playing victim to avoid supporting your claims.

[Magical Realist]

No, if someone thinks they see a sign.. or are "tapping into something".... they are delusional. There is no way to verify that a "sign" came from anywhere.

Assuming there's no such things as signs. But even if we do, again that means my synchronicities are not signs and not taken to be such. There's no message. It's simply the nature of the creative mind..

[Syne]

A sign is just a coincidence perceive to have a deeper meaning. That meaning doesn't have to be a specific message.
This is contrasted with a coincidence, that is just random, without any deeper significance.

A metaphysical sign is a symbol, an experience, or a personal intuition that is believed to have spiritual or mystical meaning beyond the physical world. Examples include spiritual symbols like the Om symbol or the Hamsa hand, or personal signs such as synchronicities, vivid dreams, or heightened intuition. These signs are often seen as a way to connect with a deeper, intangible reality or as indicators of a spiritual awakening.
- Google AI

Notice how you use the word "synchronicities" and phrase "tapping into a level of reality." They're literally signs.