Russian Ukraine Invasion

Magical Realist Online
"European leaders have urged Russia to agree to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire with Ukraine starting on Monday.

The call was issued at a meeting of the "coalition of the willing" in Kyiv. The leaders of France, Germany, the UK and Poland were hosted by Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky, while others joined remotely.

They made the announcement after discussing the plan by phone with US President Donald Trump - who initially mooted an unconditional ceasefire. The leaders threatened Russia with "massive" sanctions if it does not comply.

UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said the aim of the coalition of the willing was to show "that aggression will never prevail on our continent".

"Once a ceasefire is achieved, it will take time, but this will be a huge moment in reconnecting Ukraine's economy, boosting investor confidence, and helping to reunite families separated by this war," Starmer told reporters.

He was speaking alongside Zelensky, French President Emmanuel Macron, Polish PM Donald Tusk and the new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

Zelensky said: "Thank you all for standing with us. Today we will focus on how to build and guarantee real and lasting security."

Russia has so far insisted that before considering a ceasefire, the West must first halt its military aid to Ukraine.

However, Zelenksy said that the ceasefire should be unconditional.

"Attempts to put forward any conditions would be evidence of an intention to prolong the war and undermine diplomacy," he added..."

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c87j03x9px2o
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Syne Offline
Don't know why Putin would allow 30 days for the West to rearm Ukraine. Seems a ceasefire should be accompanied by a cessation of arming. Otherwise it just looks like an excuse to regroup. That's not a precursor to peace.

As usual, Europeans want to talk about peace while sabotaging it.. because they want this war to continue weakening Russia.


https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/iRMxGbo6uJw
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stryder Offline
(May 10, 2025 09:35 PM)Syne Wrote: Don't know why Putin would allow 30 days for the West to rearm Ukraine. Seems a ceasefire should be accompanied by a cessation of arming. Otherwise it just looks like an excuse to regroup. That's not a precursor to peace.

As usual, Europeans want to talk about peace while sabotaging it.. because they want this war to continue weakening Russia.


https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/iRMxGbo6uJw

The problem with Putin is that he will not deal if he feels he doesn't know the outcome of what he's dealing in. Consider his country is deep within a blanket of propaganda, where nobody dare protest for the concern over being arrested etc.

It's a controlled environment, an environment where a Dictator dictates the outcome.

Putin doesn't want to sit around the table and be asked questions he can't answer (or have control over which ones are asked first), thats why he hasn't attended "Peace" negotiations, as negotiations suggest dealing with problems that you don't have control over or answers for, it's part of the reason to negotiate. After all if Putin is caught out not being able to deal, or force his will, he'll be seen as weak internally.

Trump of course inserts that Putin is waiting on him... but like I said it's only down to whether Russia controls the narrative (which Trump originally let Putin do.)

If Trump does what he did last time and just let Putin say and do whatever he wants, then yes Putin will sit at the table knowing what outcome he wants but don't expect a peace deal, just more pig swill.
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Syne Offline
Russia's economy is now a fully and successful wartime economy. There's zero incentive to change that without a sizeable carrot.
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Magical Realist Online
Read em' and weep Syne!

https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bomber...6doOXGA0fw

"An operation by Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) using first-person-view (FPV) drones smuggled deep inside Russian and hidden inside trucks has hit 41 Russian heavy bombers at four airfields across the country, a source in the agency told the Kyiv Independent on June 1.

The operation — codenamed "Spider web" and a year-and-a-half in the planning — appears to have dealt a major blow to the aircraft Moscow uses to launch long-range missile attacks on Ukraine's cities.

"The SBU first transported FPV drones to Russia, and later, on the territory of the Russian Federation, the drones were hidden under the roofs of mobile wooden cabins, already placed on trucks," the source said..."
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Syne Offline
No weeping here. That's good news!

The EU has finally decided to support Ukraine striking into Russia... even with EU-supplied weapons. That's great news. That at least has some chance of upsetting the endless war of attrition that Russia was sure to win. The EU has been willing for Ukraine to throw their own to the meat grinder, but they have been afraid of Russia's response if their own supplied arms were use to attack Russia directly.

So good for EU finally starting to grow a pair. Not that they're willing to supply their own forces to help, but it's something. It beats the hell out of the tap dance they've done all this time about not wanting to have meaningful peace talks and wanting to help "secure the peace" after someone else does all the work.
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Yazata Offline
The nature of warfare seems to be changing. Not just in Ukraine, but potentially for everyone, as drone warfare moves front and center.

Russia and Ukraine are currently the world leaders at this, having learned quickly out of necessity, but some other countries like Iran are leaning into drones as well. I don't know what China is doing, but they are doubtless watching and learning too.

Unfortunately, I don't think that the United States or Europe are ready yet to fight this new way.

New York Times story. (Despite that, the story is good.) Highlighting by me.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025...eaths.html

"Drones now kill more soldiers and destroy more armored vehicles in Ukraine than all traditional weapons of war combined, including sniper rifles, tanks, howitzers and mortars, Ukrainian commanders and officials say."

"Speeding cars or trucks no longer provide protection from faster-flying drones.

Soldiers hike for miles, ducking into cover, through drone-infested territory too dangerous for jeeps, armored personnel carriers or tanks.

Soldiers say it has become strangely personal, as buzzing robots hunt specific cars or even individual soldiers."


“You can hide from artillery, but drones are a different kind of nightmare.

"Ukrainian officials said they had made more than one million first-person-view, or FPV, drones in 2024. Russia claims it can churn out 4,000 every day. Both countries say they are still scaling up production, with each aiming to make three to four million drones in 2025."

nsNS
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Yazata Offline
I'm thinking that soldiers might have to go back to shotguns, like shooting birds or trap/skeet shooting for smaller low-flying drones. If these are FPV drones, then someone relatively nearby is flying them remotely, so it should be possible to jam the radio command transmissions and locate & eliminate the radio controlling them.

I'd guess that both sides are pretty good at destroying drones or rendering them ineffective. Which is probably why both sides are making millions of them. Overwhelm your opponent with swarms of them.
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Syne Offline
I wondered if Ukraine's successful drone attack would lead to Russia retaliating and further escalation.
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Yazata Offline
It's been a while, so maybe it's time for a Ukraine update.

The Russians are still on the attack (and from their responses to Trump, aren't interested in stopping). But they are making very little progress. (So why do they want to keep fighting?? It's not like some dramatic victory is within their reach.)

There are several places on the Donetsk front where they seem to be concentrating their efforts.

One of them is Pokrovsk, a major road/rail junction west of Donetsk city. This is actually three small cities, Pokrovsk in the west, Myrnohad in the middle and Mykolaivka (the smallest of the three) in the east. Russia has been attacking for months and the Ukrainians have been mounting a determined and stout defense. Both sides seem willing to throw endless soldiers into the battle, though it isn't clear to me what the importance is that justifies the losses that both sides are suffering.

But as the months go by, the Russians seem to be wearing down the Ukrainians and the Ukrainian position is gradually worsening.

Here's what the Pokrovsk front looked like on March 8


[Image: GlkAjT0XIAA2rDa?format=png&name=medium]
[Image: GlkAjT0XIAA2rDa?format=png&name=medium]



And here it is today. The Russians have managed to inject spetsnaz (special forces) into the middle of Pokrovsk. More importantly, they are gradually enveloping the Ukrainians to the east, where the Russians have already captured Mykolaivka. It's starting to look to me like the Ukrainians might have to withdraw from Pokrovsk in the next few weeks.


[Image: GxOvmrjX0AQvZjH?format=png&name=4096x4096]
[Image: GxOvmrjX0AQvZjH?format=png&name=4096x4096]

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