Russian Ukraine Invasion

RainbowUnicorn Offline

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/ImFZ3YsvFQ8

(Sep 6, 2022 02:29 PM)C C Wrote:
(Sep 5, 2022 04:58 PM)RainbowUnicorn Wrote: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5hZxVjRvIM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEkOHEA8Uko

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLI0zDa0kTo

With respect to the last one, sabotage from Russian dissidents themselves is one limited way of carrying the conflict into the otherwise secure invader's homeland. But given the state's ability to round suspects up and sentence them without due process (or with a speedy, sham version of that) and punish them to the max... One has to wonder how long the insurgents can maintain their numbers of "willing to sacrifice all to damage military logistics" participants.

However, French resistance endured through WWII -- the height of it was late in the war. Not quite the same thing, but Germans controlled France and were arguably a threat to the French underground as much as Russian dissidents are menaced by Vlad's domestic agencies.

with the massive amount of war crimes committed by russia resistance actions would expect to have repercussions.
but those repercussions would be coming anyway just via artillery or missiles regardless of resistance action.

WWII france had already had the death squads and ethnic cleansing go through it & in a constant state.

i guess the difference is russia needs some people to use for publicity to prove they have supporters, which is why i think they were attempting to capture civilians to use as human shields and as public media to fake local support and governance.
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Yazata Offline
The Kherson offensive still seems to be advancing slowly, at great cost. Russian sources say that the Ukrainians haven't managed to gain much ground but are moving in reinforcements. They continue striking Russian ammunition dumps and river crossings with missiles, artillery and jets. So while the Russian defenders seem well equipped now, that might not last.

Ukrainian forces pressing forward

https://twitter.com/praisethesteph/statu...4510273538

But the biggest news might be a surprising new Ukrainian offensive southeast of Kharkiv, eastwards toward Kupiansk and the road from Russia to Izium. It seems to have been kind of a target of opportunity, where the Russians withdrew so many forces to the battles in Donetsk and Kherson that the Ukrainians realized there was hardly anybody opposite them, so they have been advancing fairly rapidly and taking multiple villages.

Map by Militaryland.net from twitter


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Another interesting thing. The Russian and Ukrainian languages are very similar, pretty much just dialects of each other. (Which is one reason why Putin thinks of Ukrainians as just more Russians.) But one difference is that the Ukrainian alphabet has a letter 'i' with two dots above it (the letter is pronounced 'yee'), and the Russian doesn't. So Ukrainian partisans have started painting this distinctive Ukrainian letter on walls and roads all over Russian occupied Ukraine as a symbol of Ukrainian nationalism.

The Partisans aren't just about defiance. There's talk that they are serving as artillery spotters, which is one reason why the HIMARS strikes have been so effective. Precision rockets have to be precisely aimed, so the partisans locate ammunition dumps and command-and-control sites, and send the coordinates back. (And the Russians are still unable to jam those damned Starlinks...).


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Yazata Offline
Another map of the new Kharkiv oblast front, from Ukraine War Mapper on twitter. This one shows the Ukrainians having taken Semenivka and approaching Shevchenkove


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In other news, there was a big explosion at the electricity distribution station serving the Russian city of Belgorod north of Kharkiv, and reportedly half the city of Belgorod is currently blacked out.
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C C Offline
(Sep 9, 2022 12:09 AM)RainbowUnicorn Wrote: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84xjCc_2GtY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9ETT_G7aYk

EXCERPT FROM 1st VIDEO: "The Kremlin continues to downplay the Ukrainian counter-offensive, claiming that its war in Ukraine is going as planned. In a rare speech at an economic forum in Russia's eastern Vladivostok, on september 7th, Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin claimed that we have not lost anything and will not lose anything."


This is quite right. Vlad could completely pull his forces out of Ukraine and still be victorious and in possession of whatever amount of Ukraine he desires to be. The reason this is so, is because Vlad controls the reality of Russian citizens. As George Orwell put it (1984 Part 3, Chapter 3):

'We are the priests of power,' he said. [...]

For a moment Winston ignored the dial. He made a violent effort to raise himself into a sitting position, and merely succeeded in wrenching his body painfully.

'But how can you control matter?' he burst out. 'You don't even control the climate or the law of gravity. And there are disease, pain, death --'

O'Brien silenced him by a movement of his hand. 'We control matter because we control the mind. Reality is inside the skull. You will learn by degrees, Winston. There is nothing that we could not do. Invisibility, levitation -- anything. I could float off this floor like a soap bubble if I wish to. I do not wish to, because the Party does not wish it. You must get rid of those nineteenth-century ideas about the laws of Nature. We make the laws of Nature.'
https://www.george-orwell.org/1984/19.html


The opening narration from the TV series The Outer Limits (1963 version) further clarifies:

"There is nothing wrong with your television set. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are controlling transmission. If we wish to make it louder, we will bring up the volume. If we wish to make it softer, we will tune it to a whisper. We will control the horizontal. We will control the vertical. We can roll the image, make it flutter. We can change the focus to a soft blur, or sharpen it to crystal clarity. For the next hour, sit quietly and we will control all that you see and hear..."

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Yazata Offline
The Ukrainian offensive in eastern Kharkiv oblast continues with considerable success. As RU notes, the Ukrainians have taken Balakliya. They are in control of Shevchenkove. The biggest news is that the Ukrainians are outside Kupiansk. This country town is very strategic since it controls the supply lines between Russia and all the Russians to the south around Izium. If the Ukrainians manage to take Kupiansk, all those Russians will be more-or-less cut off from resupply, except for some farm roads. It would be a major Ukrainian success if they can seize and hold it. Even the fighting in the vicinity has already severed Russian supply lines. A very big deal.

A bridge near Kupiansk:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/stat...9904463872

Militaryland.net has produced a special update just for the Kupiansk front

https://militaryland.net/news/invasion-d...nsk-front/

The Russians are sending in relatively elite helicoper-borne forces to try to stop the bleeding. Report by Russian war correspondent

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/...4715284481

Gif showing Ukrainian breakthrough in just the last four days

https://twitter.com/reconghostsamar/stat...9425284097

The latest map from militaryland


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Battling the Orcs.

On one hand, this painting illustrates reducing one's enemy to subhuman status, making them easier to kill without compassion. But it also illustrates how the Russian side has been reduced to enlisting mercenaries and even prisoners from prison promised pardons for completing a tour, while on the Ukrainian side the war has become something of a righteous popular crusade. Which probably has something to do with how much more motivated the Ukrainian soldiers seem to be. They feel that they are fighting for something important to them personally, and I'm not sure many of the Russian soldiers feel the same. When you are fighting for your country, your home, family and neighbors, it's a strong and intoxicating brew.

It's a little striking, sad and ironic that while nationalism has somehow become equated with fascism in western Europe, it's something very different in places like Ukraine, Hungary and Poland. Something still worth fighting for.


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Here's kind of a moving scene, a unit of Ukrainian soldiers gathered to receive a briefing by their officers prior to going into battle in the Kupiansk front. And concluding by singing the hymn-like Ukrainian national anthem:

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/stat...7137970176
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Yazata Offline
Institute for the Study of War's assessment:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...eptember-8

They note an unusual amount of critical comment by "milbloggers" on the Russian internet. These are often Russian military veterans with their own sources in the services. They want Russia to win, but can be very critical of the military leadership if they feel that campaigns are being botched and regular soldiers are being hung out to dry.

Part of the problem is that the Russian Ministry of Defense hasn't made any statement about the Ukrainian Kupiansk offensive, so all the Russians see are unofficial sources. Which lowers public confidence in what they are being told. The MoD seems to want to fit everything into a narrative of the war going smoothly and easily. So when unexpected things happen, their spin machine freezes.

ISW anticipates the Ukrainians taking Kupiansk in the next two days.

In Kherson, the Ukrainians continue to hit supply dumps and "GLOCs" (ground lines of communication), but aren't making a whole lot of progress on the ground. The Ukrainian military command describes it as between two and several dozen kilometers advance, depending on the location. The thing is, they way they telegraphed the coming Kherson offensive, allowed the Russians to prepare and reinforce, HIMARS or no HIMARS. (It's conceivable that the Kherson offensive was kind of a feint designed to get the Russians to take their eye off preparations for the surprise Kupiansk offensive that's encountered surprisingly little resistance.)

In the Donetsk fronts like Bakhmut, the Russians continued to make small but incremental gains not unlike Ukrainian gains in Kherson.

Militaryland's Day 198 Summary (of the war that was supposed to be over with a Russian victory in 14 days)

https://militaryland.net/news/invasion-day-198-summary/
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