Russian Ukraine Invasion

[RainbowUnicorn]

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very mobile LoL !

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Putin makes human sacrifice for his political ideologies

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/r5pYiLlLno0

[RainbowUnicorn]

Orcs looting washing machines and packaging them up in ammo boxes to send back to Russia.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/stat...4414560258

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https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/dUEdYXhsa1k

[RainbowUnicorn]

Possible encirclement of Orcs in Lyman

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/9G5VEafkzNE

[Yazata]

It's really starting to look like the Russian military will screw up anything that possibly can be screwed up. And to think that a year ago the US and Europe were actually afraid of their conventional forces. In real life, they can't even defeat a single middle-rank power like Ukraine. So how well would they do against a better equipped and more modern force like Poland or Britain or France?

Perhaps the US doesn't have to worry about them attacking our European allies since those allies can probably take care of themselves against an army like this, and turn our attention more to China, which will be a much tougher adversary.

This is really bad:

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/09/27/...all-of-you

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/fEi8CYofHMc

[Yazata]

Back during the Cold War, the Soviet Union had what many pundits called A,B,C and D units.

A units were the elite forces, fully manned with the best equipment and training. They were considered the equivalent of US regular army forces or even better.

B units weren't manned at full strength, with some troops to be filled out with trained reservists. They were trained, but not as much as the A units which were always training. Their equipment was older models but still combat worthy. Their job would be to back up and reinforce the A units. Comparable to US reserve forces.

C units existed largely on paper. They were manned at less than 10% strength and would receive old equipment from storage, some of it junk. If they had to be called up quickly, the draftees that manned them would receive little training. Their job was mostly as occupation troops in regions the A and B units had already taken.

D units were composed of non-Russian citizens of the Soviet Union whose loyalty the Kremlin didn't fully trust. Many Muslims from central Asia. They weren't issued heavy arms and were assigned to jobs like truck drivers.

So it looks to me like these mobilization forces going to Ukraine are today's equivalent of the C forces. It will be interesting to see if they go to the front line or are used as occupation forces in occupied Ukrainian territories. Technically, Russian law says that draftees can't be used outside Russia. But if Russia annexes the occupied parts of Ukraine, presumably they could be used there. (Of course, the Kremlin might not obey its own laws. Laws are for the little guys, never for the rulers.)

[Yazata]

The Ukrainians like them so much, the US is sending Ukraine 18 more HIMARS launchers, to add to the 16 that they already have been using very effectively. When they arrive, Ukraine will have 34 HIMARS launchers, plus 12 of the larger tracked M-270's (US made but provided by Britain and Germany I believe) that can launch more of the same precision-guided missiles. That adds up to a formidable long range precision artillery capability.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1...2563628035

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Putin be like

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[RainbowUnicorn]

best thing putin could do is fake his own death and run away to south america like hitler did

[Yazata]

Lithuania says that it is sending Ukraine 25,000 winter uniforms. It isn't as sexy as HIMARS, but probably just as appreciated by the troops since Ukraine gets very cold in the winter. They say that they might ship another 10,000 in January.

https://twitter.com/a_anusauskas/status/...3499362304

One concern about the HIMARS that I've heard is availability of ammunition. The US only has limited stocks and needs to keep enough for its own army. The US manufactures about 6,000 rounds a year. Lockheed Martin is promising to increase production but that might take months. 6,000 rounds sounds like a lot, but even if we assume that the entire production goes to Ukraine, if there are 30 launchers each of which has 6 missiles, that only works out to 33 salvoes each per year. I'm sure that the Ukrainians are using them more heavily than that.

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Russia is trying to convince Europe that the US blew up the Nordstream gas pipeline.

https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/15...2798576640

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Timelapse gif of Ukrainian gains north of Lyman over the last week

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/15...9114804225

[RainbowUnicorn]

Lithuania says that it is sending Ukraine 25,000 winter uniforms. It isn't as sexy as HIMARS, but probably just as appreciated by the troops since Ukraine gets very cold in the winter. They say that they might ship another 10,000 in January.

Great news
i think the Orcs wont be able to stand up to the winter
They will become target practice for the Archers & Panzerhaubitze 2000
Ukraine will need to transition its 777 artillery crews to defensive positions and shift some of them into mobile artillery for winter.
while they keep HIMARS for special high value targets which might appear at short notice in some forward positions.
looks like its going really well in the north where if they can cut off the rail link it will be a big almost unsurmountable barrier to Orcs reinforcing with their mobalisation
this will force them to make road convoys which will present high value targets for himars

looks like nearly encirclement in lyman
but with such a large group of Orcs they will need to be careful they dont over reach and then put themselves into artillery range.

does himars have cluster munitions for troop concentrations & convoys ?

i worry that ukraine might over extend themselves trying to go too fast
making great progress, but people power is key, all those skills and abilities cant be replaced.
you can replace a machine but you cant replace a person.

the critical mistake that dictators have made is they think they can replace people so they put a low value on human life
and look where that has got the Orcs
thats 1 critical reason they are losing soo badly because the russian war machine & leadership doesn't value the lifes of its soldiers


UPDATE

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/UYrWK6k5Guc

[Kornee]

Russia is trying to convince Europe that the US blew up the Nordstream gas pipeline.

https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/15...2798576640

Given the huge list of known past US/Israel false flags, and the absurdity of proposing Russia would deliberately cripple it's meager chances of resuscitating Nord Stream II income stream, when a simple opening/closing of valves already handles the situation REVERSIBLY, I'll go with the analysis here:

https://www.moonofalabama.org/  (September 28, 2022 page)