Russian Ukraine Invasion

[Yazata]

Video from outside Kherson, showing Russian anti-missile missiles launching at incoming HIMARS rockets, some of which nevertheless succeed in hitting the Antonivsky bridge. So the Ukrainians are continuing to devote high-value resources to keeping the bridge links severed.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/stat...2542508034

[RainbowUnicorn]

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/eEXfKzqj7BA

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Video from outside Kherson, showing Russian anti-missile missiles launching at incoming HIMARS rockets, some of which nevertheless succeed in hitting the Antonivsky bridge. So the Ukrainians are continuing to devote high-value resources to keeping the bridge links severed.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/stat...2542508034

i can hear missile strike explosions near the end and cant see impact on the bridge(that sounds almost as loud as the HIMARS hits), im guessing there is another target close by they are hitting, i wonder if that is anti radar missiles hitting the s300 anti missile missile batterys, or a second set of HIMARS targetted on the S300's

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Day 171 of the war that was only supposed to last a week.

[Image: FaBkTFPWAAAj6h2?format=jpg&name=medium]

& now Ukraine can target their stock piles which they are collecting to put on the pontoon bridge
im sure there will be a supply dump point not too far away from the pontoon bridge which hopefully should be in reach of HIMARS

[RainbowUnicorn]

Good News

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62547403

Ukraine hits Russian Wagner mercenary HQ in east

Ukrainian artillery has struck a headquarters of Russia's shadowy Wagner paramilitary group of mercenaries in eastern Ukraine, reports say.
The extent of damage to the military base of the group - which has been linked to war crimes - is not clear.
Luhansk's governor claims its secret location was revealed after a Russian journalist shared its address.
Last week, pro-Kremlin correspondent Sergei Sreda posted a photo on Telegram of the base with its apparent address.
The image, shared on the social media site but since deleted, shows five people in military uniform with a street sign in Popasna, Luhansk visible in the top left corner.
While the BBC has not been able to confirm the connection between the photo and the strike, Governor Serhiy Hayday wrote on Telegram that Ukrainian forces "hit an enemy HQ whose whereabouts were established thanks to a Russian journalist".

[Image: _126330809_mediaitem126330808.jpg]

[Yazata]

Thanks for the information about the Wagner HQ, Russian journalist

Here's some more video of that (assumed) Ukrainian attack on the Russian air base in Crimea.

https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status...4685588482

[RainbowUnicorn]

Ukraine strikes big Russian ammo dump

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/UNSfCHB6Wsk

[Yazata]

Thanks for the information about the Wagner HQ, Russian journalist

Here's some more video of that (assumed) Ukrainian attack on the Russian air base in Crimea a few days ago.

https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status...4685588482

And it's continuing! [Edit Looks like RU scooped me on posting news about this latest hit! His post appeared as I was writing this.]

This just happened today: Big explosions at a Russian ammunition depot at Azovsk in Crimea. Once again the Russian officials are saying it was accidental, not a Ukrainian attack, nothing to worry about.

But it's starting to look like Ukraine has gotten its hands on some ATACMS missiles or something similar. This is like 200 km from the nearest Ukrainian positions.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/stat...6253016064

Crimea is a major Russian tourist destination and it looks like the tourists are starting to bail.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/stat...6258962437

Map of the area. The airbase that was hit earlier is located at Saky near some Black Sea tourist beaches north of Sevastopol. Azovsk appears to be in a less touristy farming area to the northeast. The nearest Ukrainian held territory is far off in the northwest corner of the map, at Mykolaiv, on the far side of Russian occupied Kherson. The wide Dnipro river is a prominent feature up there, with the location of the bridges marked.

[Image: FaQkmvUWYAYoxm8?format=jpg&name=large]

[RainbowUnicorn]

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/7s9zoiyNWZE

i posted this video for its audio
it says russian command is retreating over the river

[Yazata]

I believe that it was the Oblast (province) civilian administration for Russian occupied Kherson Oblast that moved across to the east bank of the Dnipro. (I don't have any idea where the Russian military commanders are, maybe they moved too.)

But so far, there hasn't been a lot of evidence of a big Ukrainian ground offensive in the Kherson region either. There have been many small attacks but the Russians have successfully repelled them. My guess is that the Ukrainians are waiting for the growing Russian supply difficulties to take hold before they launch any big attack.

The Ukrainian military briefings love to list numbers of Russian casualties and equipment destroyed. What they never reveal is numbers of Ukrainian casualties and equipment destroyed. (There are anecdotal reports of entire Ukrainian units being decimated.) My guess is that after the days early in the war when Ukrainians were just happily picking off Russian tanks with Javelins, losses on both sides have grown more equal. And Russia is a bigger country with more resources to pour into the conflict. So time is not on the Ukrainians' side in the Donbas, even if it might be west of the Dnipro in Kherson.

That's why it seems to me that the Ukraine War is descending into a World War I style war of attrition, with huge numbers of dead and wounded on both sides, while the front lines move little if at all.

One good coming out of it all, is that the conventional Russian military forces are being ground up and weakened tremendously. Given the difficulty they are having and the losses they are suffering in Ukraine, it's hard to see them posing much danger to the rest of Europe for years to come. (Perhaps with the Baltics excepted.)

[RainbowUnicorn]

seeing those pictures again of the prison fire where some 50 Ukrainian POW's died
the white charring on the metal beds shows the fire has been very intense.
not something you would see from missile strikes
there has obviously been some type of high heat fuel for the fire.

i suspect the wagner group(or Orcs or both) put an incendiary bomb inside the prison

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I believe that it was the Oblast (province) civilian administration for Russian occupied Kherson Oblast that moved across to the east bank of the Dnipro. (I don't have any idea where the Russian military commanders are, maybe they moved too.)

But so far, there hasn't been a lot of evidence of a big Ukrainian ground offensive in the Kherson region either. There have been many small attacks but the Russians have  successfully repelled them. My guess is that the Ukrainians are waiting for the growing Russian supply difficulties to take hold before they launch any big attack.

The Ukrainian military briefings love to list numbers of Russian casualties and equipment destroyed. What they never reveal is numbers of Ukrainian casualties and equipment destroyed. (There are anecdotal reports of entire Ukrainian units being decimated.) My guess is that after the days early in the war when Ukrainians were just happily picking off Russian tanks with Javelins, losses on both sides have grown more equal. And Russia is a bigger country with more resources to pour into the conflict. So time is not on the Ukrainians' side in the Donbas, even if it might be west of the Dnipro in Kherson.

That's why it seems to me that the Ukraine War is descending into a World War I style war of attrition, with huge numbers of dead and wounded on both sides, while the front lines move little if at all.

One good coming out of it all, is that the conventional Russian military forces are being ground up and weakened tremendously. Given the difficulty they are having and the losses they are suffering in Ukraine, it's hard to see them posing much danger to the rest of Europe for years to come. (Perhaps with the Baltics excepted.)

i expect things will get very difficult for russia when the winter arrives.
i hope the ukrainins get some good winter clothing & more personal carriers by then.
it appears that russia does not have enough uniforms for its own soldiers so it wont have winter clothing for them.
& they will not have any means to keep warm other than starting fires which will give away their positions.
i expect russian soldiers will start to die from exposure

[Yazata]

The ammunition depot in Crimea that exploded this morning was right next to a rail line with all sorts of ordinance stored right out in the open. Grad multiple rocket launchers, big piles of ammunition crates. Here's video shot from a train, before it blew up.

Just from looking at it, an accident doesn't seem out of the question. It doesn't look like a very professional military operation. The Russians are apparently blaming sabotage.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/stat...3160083457