YazataMay 3, 2023 07:12 PM (This post was last modified: May 3, 2023 10:13 PM by Yazata.)
Strange story coming out of Moscow. Apparently the Kremlin was attacked by two drones about 3 AM local time last night. One or both of them either were or weren't intercepted by anti-aircraft defenses. There's video of one exploding in midair above the Kremlin, without any interceptor rocket visible. It could have been hit by gunfire, or perhaps it was only meant as a display.
Russia is claiming that it was a Ukrainian attempt to assassinate Vladimir Putin and targeted his presidential apartments. Hotheads in the Russian government are already saying that Zelensky's assassination should now be on the table. Zelensky is conveniently visiting Europe on an extended trip to several countries, demanding/begging for more aid.
Comments on Twitter note that it might very well be a 'false-flag' operation, except that it's hard to see what Putin would gain by doing that. People are noting that the drones are probably too small to have flown all the way from Ukraine. More likely they were launched from within Moscow, by persons unknown. People are noting that nice color cameras caught the attack at 3 AM, as if whoever filmed it expected it to happen. Others suggest that they were government security CCTV cameras always trained on the Kremlin and note that kind of video would only be released with Kremlin authorization.
So was it a Russian false-flag, designed to drum up support for... something? Was it the work of Ukrainian agents in Moscow? Or was it the work of Russian dissidents of some kind?
We may or may not learn more in coming hours.
The video in the tweet below seemingly shows a drone (descending behind the dome) suddenly exploding. It isn't clear if it was shot down or whether it was commanded to explode in midair.
YazataMay 3, 2023 08:27 PM (This post was last modified: May 3, 2023 08:36 PM by Yazata.)
And here's how what might be the end-game shapes up in Bakhmut.
The Ukrainian defenders are concentrated in what is being referred to as the "citadel", a neighborhood of old Soviet style high-rise apartment buildings that the Ukrainians are using like forts. (The dark blue circled area, #4 on the lower right in the satellite photo below.) So Wagner is attacking southwards through a lower density residential neighborhood to the upper left (the red arrows). Their goal is to reach the yellow line #1 on the left, which is the Bakhmut end of the road in and out to Chasiv Yar. The Ukrainians are counterattacking from a new defensive line, the blue line below the red arrows. (And they seem to be having some success doing so and have even pushed the Russians back a short ways. So the red arrows don't represent areas the Russians hold, but where they are trying to go and where fighting is occurring.) It looks to me like Wagner would rather try to encircle the 'citadel' rather than attack it head on. (Which might unnecessarily cost them lots of fighters.) #3 to the left of the citadel is the adjacent Bakhmut Children's Hospital. (There aren't any more children in Bakhmut, but the Ukrainians are using it, perhaps as a field hospital for their own wounded.)
There were two drone attacks on the Kremlin, about 15 minutes apart. Both appeared to target the Senate Palace, a highly secure building where the Presidential Administration offices are, and reportedly a Presidential residence. There aren't many photos of the first attack since it was unexpected and happened about 2:30 AM in the morning.
Here's one of the few pictures of the first attack by a drone flying from the east.
It had burned itself out by the time 15 minutes had past.
The explosion and noise awakened people in central Moscow who started filming video. Meanwhile what appeared to be security men with flashlights were seen on the Kremlin grounds and two men were seen climbing the outside of the dome, presumably to examine the damage where the fire had been.
Then the second drone came in from the west and exploded above the dome. Luckily the two men climbing the dome appear to have been shielded by the dome from shrapnel from that second explosion.
Compare the size of the second drone to the size of the men. The drone was not small, it looks about 10 feet/3 m long. The photo below is the second drone enlarged, and it's clear that it wasn't a small commercial quadcopter. It looks like a professional military model.
A Doolittle raid to bring Muscovites into the war and perhaps strike some fear? Except they started videoing the attack/fire instead of panicking in the streets.
There is another angle. Intelligence of where Putin was in Russia is obviously handled by Russia. Perhaps Russia falsified information (about where Putin was) to root out dissidence in their own ranks (since they control their internal intelligence). That would suggest they already knew who was going to do it and when, I'd expect a shuffle in some of the people within their circles to be proof of that. They likely wouldn't want to admit who, so perhaps they'll be taken ill or fall from a balcony.
now PutZler has an excuse to ban the russian public from the 9th may victory parade so thousands of russians civilians wont be seen all across Russia carrying thousands of pictures of all the russian men who have died in Ukraine.
the innitial invasion cost ruzzia MASSIVE numbers of dead career military who will all be celebrated on the Parade by thier Familiys walking in parade carrying photographs of them.
it will be the biggest parade they have ever had since WWII
now PutZler has an excuse to cancel it and just have the military only parade in the red square where there wont be thousands upon thousands of marching civilians showing how many ruzzians have died in ukraine.
pondering...
all those Orc career military who died in the first 6 months of the Ruzzian invasion
will likely have roughly 4 family members who will want to march in parade day carrying their picture
that's half a million ruzzian civilians marching
then add the other 100,000 dead and times that by 2
that's 750,000 ruzzian civilians marching on parade day parading for the invasion of Ukraine
the number of total dead shown by marching family members will dwarf the WWII and other war dead.
not to mention entire battalions have been wiped out & effectively erased so entire battalions of family's will all suddenly be marching together at the same time all dead from Ukraine.
entire military college's family's of ALL the students all marching together on the same day
that's going to sew some seeds of dissent against putzler & his generals
YazataMay 5, 2023 12:53 AM (This post was last modified: May 5, 2023 03:38 AM by Yazata.)
Progozhin is pissed!!!
Here he is calling out the Russian MoD and the defense minister by name, calling them "traitors" (and some much more rude names) for failing to supply Wagner with all the ammunition that they need and are supposed to get. He accuses the Moscow bigshots of living luxurious lives in their private clubs, believing they have the power of life and death over his men who, all volunteers, are dying without the supplies they need. Progozhin displays several dozen bloody corpses and says these men are all somebody's son, somebody's father.
Wagner is doing all the heavy lifting in Bakhmut, as the regular Russian army basically just trains and equips newly mobilized young men, and builds up defensive positions, preparing for the anticipated Ukrainian spring offensive.
Luckily he's personal friends with Putin and can get away with talking this way. The Russian MoD generals and civilian bureaucrats apparently don't like Wagner because Wagner shows them up while going over their heads to the boss, all the while operating outside of and sometimes ignoring the formal top-down Russian army command structure. Which probably explains why they are the best fighters that Russia has. Progozhin gives his officers decision making power and encourages them to improvise in the field in response to whatever they encounter. NATO doctrine also encourages this, but the Russian army has alway been more regimented since Soviet days, with headquarters making all the decisions.
My guess is that his men will like him sticking up for them like this.
YazataMay 6, 2023 01:12 AM (This post was last modified: May 6, 2023 01:39 AM by Yazata.)
(May 5, 2023 12:53 AM)Yazata Wrote: Progozhin is pissed!!!
And today Progozhin announced that unless Wagner gets the ammunition they need, they will be withdrawing from Bakhmut to camps in rear areas, beginning May 10. That will presumably mean the Ukrainians once again getting control of the whole city, despite their being almost pushed out of it right now after four months of very intense street fighting.
And if that happens, I can't imagine Wagner going back in and trying to take Bakhmut a second time, after so many of their comrades died doing it the first time.
Progozhin says that earlier Wagner was only getting 30% of their ammunition allotment, then it was 10%, now they haven't gotten any since May first. He blames that on top generals and civilians in the Defense Ministry being embarrased by the regular army's failings and by the way smaller Wagner shows them up by performing so much better.
This is a situation where Putin has to do something, and fast.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status...0069037057
And in other news, there are reports of increased Ukrainian probing attacks south of Zaphorizhia city. The Russian governor of the Russian occupied part of Zaphorizhia has ordered civilians evacuated from several small towns and villages near the front.
Some observers are predicting that the Ukrainian Spring Offensive will start in that area in a matter of days. (Though I half suspect it's a feint designed to draw Russian defenders there and that the Ukrainians will then attack elsewhere where defenses are weaker.)
YazataMay 7, 2023 07:32 PM (This post was last modified: May 7, 2023 07:37 PM by Yazata.)
It looks like the Moscow MoD has backed down.
Progozhin says that Moscow has promised Wagner all the ammunition they need. They promise to deploy forces to protect Wagner's flanks. They have given Wagner the freedom to handle Bakhmut as Wagner sees fit, a major departure from typical top-down Russian military command doctrine. And they have taken the unprecedented step of assigning an important general, Sergey Surovikhin, as liason between the MoD and Wagner.
Surovikhin issued this (again rather unprecedented) statement in which he criticizes his own MoD:
"Yevgeny Progozhin and I were in contact from the very beginning of the SMO and I shared with him my opinion on some operations. From the very beginning, at the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, I opposed the restriction of the supply of weapons and ammunition to the PMC Wagner. They restricted me as much as they could, but now I have achieved it. We have reached a concrete decision that will move our front line from its place. Yes, it cost me a lot, but now the train has started moving. The shells are already being shipped and their production is increasing. In the near future it will be decided to regroup some units and organize a blockade of the remaining nationalists in the city of Bakhmut. Victory will be ours!"
Lots of interesting bits in there. First, it's hard to see how Progozhin and Surovikhin could have won without strong support from higher up. That suggests to me Putin's intervention. Surovikhin mentions the cost to him personally, which suggests that these events have made him some powerful enemies in the MoD.
And it sounds like Wagner isn't going to try to battle the last Ukrainians out, but will try to encircle and blockade them, which will be less costly in Wagner fighters and will require less ammunition and weaponry, which the regular Russian Army apparently wants to channel towards defending against the anticipated Ukrainian Spring Offensive (which looks to be slipping into a Summer Offensive).
Progozhin says he put these proposals to his officers, who in turn put them to their men, offering to transfer anyone who didn't agree to different military units, and everyone refused the offer, often in obscene terms (which Progozhin says is the Wagner way).
YazataMay 8, 2023 09:50 PM (This post was last modified: May 8, 2023 09:53 PM by Yazata.)
Russia has been launching cruise missiles aimed at Ukraine using strategic bombers.
There are Osint types that listen to the Russian strategic air force frequencies to hear communications to and from these bombers. (The communications are almost always encrypted.)
Well, today the listeners report that the Russian strategic communications frequencies are being powerfully jammed. Unclear if Ukraine has the ability to do this or if it is NATO.
May 3, 2023 07:12 PM
(This post was last modified: May 3, 2023 10:13 PM by Yazata.)
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