Russian Ukraine Invasion

[RainbowUnicorn]

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/N9YO4UQUOj4

[Yazata]

Another Kraken video...

Warning, it's brutal and intense

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/usRRNFXgRAo

[RainbowUnicorn]

Another Kraken video...

Warning, it's brutal and intense

Kraken look really good
great that they have and are using those shoulder launch rockets
i think they make a huge difference
specially when they are fighting Orcs who are inside houses
well planned & organized well equipped mechanized lighting raids seem to be the undoing of the Orcs

where to go next ?
i think i would try and convince the Orcs i was going to launch a  major offensive into volnovakha to see if they pull wagner troops out of the wagner line, then if they did push artillery into the wagner line to try and smash their middle and rear
then when they move their troops back to wagner line then push into volnovakha for real and then do a fast retreating withdrawal
then push back into wagner line & try and move that front line forward as the north get ready to probe svatove
meanwhile increase long range missile strikes on fuel & supply depots & rail way stations inside russia
then co-ordinate jdams assault on wagner line to crush them as they take svatove

[RainbowUnicorn]

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/OO8QeFc0uuA

[Yazata]

Excellent analysis of where the war stands now, how it might end and what the United States should do:

Part I

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/12/the-...e-learned/

Part II

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/12/the-...d-in-2023/

Part III

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/12/ukra...should-do/

[Syne]

Even though the US is sending the Ukraine a lot of money, in an already rough fiscal time, it is a very small fraction of the US military budget that ensures American troops are not put in harm's way, or the US directly committed, to weaken Russia, a geopolitical enemy.

[RainbowUnicorn]

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/zOMEByDknz4

[Yazata]

Excellent analysis of where the war stands now, how it might end and what the United States should do

Here's my own view:

I don't think that either of them, Russia or Ukraine, can win.

Ukraine can't defeat Russia, Russia's numerical advantage is too great and Russia has nuclear weapons.

And it's become increasingly clear that Russia can't defeat Ukraine. This second one comes as a surprise to everyone, including Putin. His military advisers told him it would take three days to seize Kyiv and overthrow Ukraine's regime. The US Pentagon estimated that it would take maybe six or seven days. Everyone was surprised not only by the Ukrainians' bravery and skill, by even more by the imcompetence displayed by the Russian army and particularly by its commanders, who seem incapable of learning from their mistakes.

So the war has devolved from a fast-moving war of maneuver, into more of a frozen war of attrition. Russia has the advantage there in that they have a larger population and many thousands of tanks and artllery in storage that they can dust off and throw into battle. Ukraine is largely using the same models of old Russian equipment, but has far less of it. They only have something like 1/3 as many young men. Ukraine has made it illegal for young men of military age to leave the country and has just announced a new round of mobilization that will hit the economy hard. Something like 20% of Ukraine's population has already fled outside Ukraine. (Disproportionately women and children.) Ukraine's economy has been far more devastated by war than Russia's. It's estimated that Ukraine's current GDP is only about 60% of pre-war levels and still falling. Despite sanctions, Russia's is down less than 5%. So definite advantage-Russia in a war-of-attrition.

But Ukraine is receiving military supplies from Europe and the United States. Some of that equipment is proving to be superior to similar Russian equipment. In a few categories, such as ATGMs and long range precision artillery, Ukraine has developed a distinct advantage that they have been using very skillfully.

That Western equipment isn't without its problems. Ukraine is receiving what are oftentimes small numbers of many different weapon types from many different countries. Each requires its own skilled operators, maintaince technicians, ammunition and spare parts. Any army knows that having too many types and models of weapons in inventory is a logistics nightmare. So there's that.

What's more, Ukraine is consuming military supplies like the GMLRS rockets fired by HIMARS much faster than the US can manufacture them. So supplies sent to Ukraine are coming out of US Army stockpiles. And that depletion will only degrade US ability to fight wars in the immediate future. (The US is talking about increasing production of some of these items, but that's years off.)

And there's a possibility that Russia might start receiving Chinese weaponry sometime in the future. It would inevitably come with countless strings attached and would put Russia in China's debt in ways that Moscow doesn't want. China might demand below-market-rate access to Russian energy resources and raw materials in exchange for war aid. And it would inevitably move Russia towards being a Chinese client-state in ways Russia would never accept. But just as we have seen with Iran, which has turned into a Russian military supplier with its Shahed drones, the Ukraine war might drive Russia into deeper alliance with countries that are not America's friends.

All in all, taking the battlefield realities, manpower, economics and supply issues into account, my own guess is that if the war continues as a protracted war-of-attrition for many months, the situation will gradually evolve in Russia's favor. But only at great cost to Russia. So it would be in the interest of both Russia and Ukraine to reach some kind of negotiated settlement before Ukraine loses a generation of young men and is economically devastated, and before Russia's dreams of once again being a superpower are totally dashed. The Russian land-mass turning into a failed-state or an unstable, fragmenting power-vacuum is in nobody's interest.

Right now, there's little sign that either side is thinking of compromise. Russia probably hopes to keep the war of attrition going as the terms of negotiation gradually slip more and more in their favor. (They have 150,000 newly mobilized soldiers under training that they probably hope will allow them to take the offensive in the future.) And Ukraine is making maximalist demands that Russia withdraw from all of post-1989 Ukraine including Crimea, and then submit to an international war-crimes trial, before Ukraine will talk. Which Russia will never do. Russia is proud and will not voluntarily be humiliated in any show trial. And Moscow will defend Crimea with nuclear weapons if need be, as they have already stated.

Bottom line: I think that we are probably in for maybe a year's more war, then a belated negotiated settlement of some kind where Russia keeps Crimea (and possibly more). But where Ukraine has developed a lasting hatred for Russia and will never be a Russian satellite or even an ally either. Ukraine may end up joining the EU conceivably, but probably not NATO. I'm not convinced the US wants Ukraine in NATO, since it could obligate America to go to war with Russia over Ukraine, a war which would serve no vital US national interest and would be likely to go nuclear. But a future EU-alligned Ukraine will want a strong military in the future and the US and Europe will no doubt sell them the required gear.

It will be interesting to see if Putin is still in power in Moscow when the day this is finally resolved comes, or whether he is removed in some kind of palace coup in the Kremlin. But much as the US would cheer that, chances are that he would just be replaced by a more competent Russian-nationalist hard-liner.

[Syne]

Once winter's over, the combat will likely accelerate. So if that estimate is from the current pace, I'd expect it to end sooner than that. But otherwise, likely just as you predict.

[Yazata]

The big news today is that the Ukrainians hit a vocational school in the Russian-held part of Donetsk with HIMARS rockets. The Ukrainians say, and the Russians admit, that it was being used to house some 500 soldiers. The building is totally obliterated and it's hard to see how anyone could have survived. (Though it's possible not everyone was in the building at the time.) The Russians are putting the death toll at less than 100, but that seems to only be the number of bodies they have pulled from the rubble.

If they all died, that's the equivalent of wiping out an entire Russian battalion tactical group (BTG) at one time. There's consternation in Russia and lots of finger-pointing looking for the commander that housed them all in one small place within artillery range of the enemy. Calls for a court-martial etc. My guess is that it might be a sign of poorly trained officers who failed to perceive the risk in what they were doing.

[Image: FleY-CHWAAAxlGU?format=jpg&name=large]

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On a similar note, here's a French reporter doing a TV thing in Druzhkivka Ukraine (also in Donetsk oblast) when a Russian missile hits some distance behind him. The target is said to have been a sports arena/hockey rink that the Ukrainian military was using for something.

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/161...8791556096