Seceding from Oregon: just how much bigger could Idaho get? (West Coast community)

[C C]

At least the Golden State is safe -- or from their perspective the "unlucky" Calbillies will remain trapped there, especially due to Arizona turning purple.
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Another rural Oregon county voted to explore moving to Idaho, part of a larger effort to secede from the blue state
https://www.businessinsider.com/greater-...ng-2021-11

EXCERPTS: Harney County became the latest Oregon county to express interest in joining the "Greater Idaho" movement, an effort to secede from Democratic-leaning Oregon and join conservative Idaho.

On Tuesday, a measure that would require local officials to hold meetings about the idea passed, with 63% of the vote in favor, according to the early results.

Seven other Oregon counties have previously voted in favor of exploring the move: Lake, Grant, Baker, Malheur, Union, Sherman, and Jefferson.

[...] Organizers behind the movement say Oregon's government does not represent the conservative values of much of the state and that none of the Democrats in the state Legislature represent a rural area... (MORE - missing details)

[Magical Realist]

I have to say, that when I think of Idaho, I picture rightwing gun-toting rednecks living in fortified compounds. If that's what those rural counties want, let em have it. It will only make our state bluer.

[Syne]

If that's what those rural counties want, let em have it. It will only make our state bluer.

I think you mean more crime-ridden and homeless infested.

[Magical Realist]

If that's what those rural counties want, let em have it. It will only make our state bluer.

I think you mean more crime-ridden and homeless infested.

Crime and homelessness are always higher in the more populated urban centers. It has nothing to do with a political party.

[Yazata]

At least the Golden State is safe -- or from their perspective the  "unlucky" Calbillies will remain trapped there, especially due to Arizona turning purple.

I don't understand that. Most of the California counties north of Sacramento (about 1/3 of the land area of the state) went for President Trump. That red-zone extended down the Sierra foothills down to around Fresno. If you take a map of California, about half the land area is red-counties.

The problem for Republicans is that both the SF Bay Area and Greater LA are (with some exceptions) deep blue. (San Diego is more pale blue.) LA county alone has some 10 million of California's 40 million people, as many people as the entire state of Michigan. A county with 10,000 people can't compete, even if it has equal land area. There's this stereotype of California being hard-left, but that's largely an urban phenomenon.

So for years there's been a simmering successionist movement in the far northern rural end of the state to leave California and create the new state of Jefferson. If that happened, far southern Oregon around Medford and Klamath Falls might want to join Jefferson, while eastern Oregon joins Idaho.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jefferson_...fic_state)

Which would leave Oregon reduced to the Portland-Eugene corridor I guess.

[Syne]

If that's what those rural counties want, let em have it. It will only make our state bluer.

I think you mean more crime-ridden and homeless infested.

Crime and homelessness are always higher in the more populated urban centers. It has nothing to do with a political party.

Bullshit excuses.

As of January 2020, Oregon had an estimated 14,655 experiencing homelessness on any given day
https://www.usich.gov/homelessness-statistics/or/

Portland, OR
Population: 654,741
Crime Rate (per 1,000 residents): 59.00
https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/or/portland/crime

Compared to:

As of January 2020, Oklahoma had an estimated 3,932 experiencing homelessness on any given day
https://www.usich.gov/homelessness-statistics/ok/

Oklahoma City, OK
Population: 655,057
Crime Rate (per 1,000 residents): 48.63
https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/ok/oklahoma-city

I've lived in Portland. You can't bullshit me.

[Magical Realist]

If that's what those rural counties want, let em have it. It will only make our state bluer.

I think you mean more crime-ridden and homeless infested.

Crime and homelessness are always higher in the more populated urban centers. It has nothing to do with a political party.

Bullshit excuses.

As of January 2020, Oregon had an estimated 14,655 experiencing homelessness on any given day
https://www.usich.gov/homelessness-statistics/or/

Portland, OR
Population: 654,741
Crime Rate (per 1,000 residents):  59.00
https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/or/portland/crime

Compared to:

As of January 2020, Oklahoma had an estimated 3,932 experiencing homelessness on any given day
https://www.usich.gov/homelessness-statistics/ok/

Oklahoma City, OK
Population: 655,057
Crime Rate (per 1,000 residents): 48.63
https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/ok/oklahoma-city

I've lived in Portland. You can't bullshit me.

Are you denying the rather self-evident fact that crime and homelessness are more prevalent in major cities than in rural areas because of increased population density there?

[Syne]

Are you denying the rather self-evident fact that crime and homelessness are more prevalent in major cities than in rural areas because of increased population density there?

You think Oklahoma City is a rural area, with a larger population than Portland?

Okay, you want to play the population density excuse, huh?
Sure, we'll play that little game.

The highest population densities or two states:

Johnson City, OR: 11,061.5 (people per mi²)
Nearest metropolitan: Portland, OR
Crime Rate (per 1,000 residents): 59.00

Mobile City, TX: 11,911.3 (people per mi²) [higher population density]
Nearest metropolitan: Dallas, TX
Crime Rate (per 1,000 residents): 43.17

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Un...on_density
https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/

And that's with Portland being 70.6% white and Dallas only being 29% white. So even with a much more homogeneous population, Portland has more crime.

[Magical Realist]

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

• 2018 violent crime rate: 867.3 per 100,000 people

• 2018 homicides: 52

• Poverty rate: 17.1%

• 2018 unemployment rate: 3.2%

"Oklahoma City is the second most dangerous city in Oklahoma and 43rd most dangerous in the United States. There were 867 violent crimes for every 100,000 people in the city in 2018, less than the 1,065 per 100,000 reported in Tulsa – but well more than double the nationwide rate of 369 per 100,000.

As is the case nationwide, aggravated assaults are the most common violent offense in Oklahoma City. Of the 5,663 violent crimes reported in the city last year, nearly 4,000 were classified as aggravated assaults."

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/201.../40406541/

[Syne]

Oh, so you suddenly no longer want to talk about population densities? Proves it was just an excuse.

Knowing that the black crime rate is so much higher, especially for violent crime, the simple fact that Oklahoma City is 14.1% black (higher than the national percentage) and Portland is 5.6% black (way lower than the national percentage) explains the discrepancy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_and_c...ted_States

Studies have examined that ethnic/racially heterogeneous areas, most often neighborhoods in large cities, have higher crime rates than more homogeneous areas. Most studies find that the more ethnically/racially heterogeneous an area is, the higher its crime rates tend to be.

[Image: USA_Homicide_Offending_Rates_By_Race.png]

Poverty rate is compared to the national average, which doesn't mean much for areas with a much lower cost of living. Higher poverty and unemployment not adding to the homelessness means that housing is more affordable. IOW, it does nothing to excuse the vastly higher rate of homelessness in Oregon.