Apr 20, 2021 06:18 AM
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/04/...re-season/
EXCERPT: . . . But fire scientists aren’t so much interested in the regenerative abilities of the chamise as its powers of prognostication. Because the plant is so abundant, it’s a sort of standardized species—they can sample it all over the state. Fire weather researchers like San Jose State University’s Craig Clements (who’s also a fire chaser) use it to get an idea of how parched vegetation is overall. Clements goes out into the field, randomly samples chamise plants, and takes the material back to the lab. He weighs it, pops it in an oven for 24 hours at 212 degrees Fahrenheit, and then weighs it again to determine how much water it’s lost. Or, put another way, he measures how much moisture the shrub had in the first place.
And nothing scares a fire weather scientist quite like a year with dehydrated chamis. If it’s dry, then that’s a good indicator that everything is dry. “Right now, these are the lowest April 1 fuel moistures we’ve ever had,” Clements says. This is supposed to be the time of year when moisture levels are at their highest, thanks to recent autumn and winter rains. But California is withering in a drought. “The shocking thing in 2021 is that we don’t have any new growth on chamise in our sample areas,” Clements says. “These plants are stunted by the drought.”
The California landscape appears ready to burn epically this year. “It looks bad, to put not too fine a point on it,” says UC Los Angeles climate scientist Daniel Swain, especially considering that several wildfires have already broken out in heavily forested parts of Northern California. “It shouldn’t be dry enough to support accidental fire ignitions in April in the Santa Cruz Mountains.”
“I think the forest fire risk this year is going to be about as high as it can be,” Swain adds. “And that’s pretty alarming considering what we’ve seen in the last couple of years.” (MORE - details)
EXCERPT: . . . But fire scientists aren’t so much interested in the regenerative abilities of the chamise as its powers of prognostication. Because the plant is so abundant, it’s a sort of standardized species—they can sample it all over the state. Fire weather researchers like San Jose State University’s Craig Clements (who’s also a fire chaser) use it to get an idea of how parched vegetation is overall. Clements goes out into the field, randomly samples chamise plants, and takes the material back to the lab. He weighs it, pops it in an oven for 24 hours at 212 degrees Fahrenheit, and then weighs it again to determine how much water it’s lost. Or, put another way, he measures how much moisture the shrub had in the first place.
And nothing scares a fire weather scientist quite like a year with dehydrated chamis. If it’s dry, then that’s a good indicator that everything is dry. “Right now, these are the lowest April 1 fuel moistures we’ve ever had,” Clements says. This is supposed to be the time of year when moisture levels are at their highest, thanks to recent autumn and winter rains. But California is withering in a drought. “The shocking thing in 2021 is that we don’t have any new growth on chamise in our sample areas,” Clements says. “These plants are stunted by the drought.”
The California landscape appears ready to burn epically this year. “It looks bad, to put not too fine a point on it,” says UC Los Angeles climate scientist Daniel Swain, especially considering that several wildfires have already broken out in heavily forested parts of Northern California. “It shouldn’t be dry enough to support accidental fire ignitions in April in the Santa Cruz Mountains.”
“I think the forest fire risk this year is going to be about as high as it can be,” Swain adds. “And that’s pretty alarming considering what we’ve seen in the last couple of years.” (MORE - details)