Israel-Gaza War (and Iranian Distractions)

Rebels have approached Hama, but withdrew again as a more powerful Syrian army column including armored vehicles entered Hama from the direction of Homs to the south. Syrian army units have advanced up the M-5 highway northwards of Hama a short distance and may be setting up defensive positions. A battle may or may not be brewing in coming hours in the vicinity of Hama.

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Meanwhile the Syrian Kurds (who are friendly with the US) are gathering forces and plotting to attack Syrian army positions in northeast Syria in the Deir ez-Zor area.

Nothing more about the gunfire in Damascus, so it looks like the attempted coup (if that is what it was, we don't really know) appears to have failed.

Meanwhile, many government army soldiers accompanied by tanks, trucks and armored personnel carriers are rolling into Hama. So the Syrian army seems to have pulled itself together and regained some ability to conduct operations. The rebels are gathering their own forces a short distance north of Hama. It really looks like a major battle is likely to take place there.

There are reports that the Syrian Kurds (friendly with the US) have moved into the Aleppo airport to keep it from being taken over by the Tahrir al Sham rebels from Idlib. The airport was still held by Syrian army soldiers when the Kurds arrived, but the Syrian soldiers left without a fight.

Iran's foreign minister has flown to Ankara, capital of Turkey, for talks about Syria. Syria is an ally of Iran and Turkey is evidently using proxy forces in an attempt to overthrow Syria's government.

The Turkish-backed rebels are very loosly grouped into something called the Syrian National Army (SNA) not to be confused with the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), the official Syrian government army. The SNA rebels (Turkish proxies) have warned the Kurds to withdraw from the vicinity of Aleppo. They promise that they will protect the Kurdish neighborhoods in Aleppo. And rebel armored personnel carriers have been photographed heading towards the airport. (US-made M-113's, which pretty much confirms that NATO member Turkey is arming them.)

Handy cheat-sheet for who's who in Syria

The big change with that lineup is that Tahrir al-Sham appears to have joined up with the SNA. (Turkey formerly labeled Tahrir "terrorists", which might just mean any group not cooperating with Turkish plans.)

The Israel/Hezbollah ceasefire already appears to be breaking down. No surprise there. Hezbollah has been firing into Israel and Israeli jets have been conducting air strikes in Lebanon. There are reports of Israeli ground forces making raids into border areas of Lebanon.

Not only has Hezbollah failed to evacuate southernmost Lebanon as they agreed to do, the Israelis are also concerned about their efforts to rearm after all the damage Israel did to them over the past weeks.

Despite (and perhaps because of) Syria's Iran-friendly regime teetering on the brink of collapse, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps. is continuing the flow of Iranian arms by air to Syrian air bases (despite their now being threatened by rebels) and by truck from there into Lebanon's eastern Bekaa valley. Israel has been conducting air strikes on Hezbollah weapons sites in the Bekaa valley.

Predictably, both sides are blaming the other for the ceasefire breaking down.

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In Syria news, a convoy of about 500 Iranian-backed Iraqi-Shi'ite militiamen crossed from Iraq into eastern Syria's Deir ez-Zor governate, presumably to reinforce Assad's Syrian army against an expected offensive by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Force (the Kurds). The Iraqi militiamen were hit by airstrikes by US Air Force A-10 Warthogs.

Illustrating the not-so-secret secret war that the US military is fighting in eastern Syria, ostensibly to prevent the resurgence of ISIS, but actually to support the Kurds.

It also illustrates how Iraq feels compelled to play both sides of the street. Iraq allows the US to use Iraqi air bases, while at the same time the Iraqi-Shi'ite militias are officially considered auxiliaries of the Iraqi military. Baghdad feels compelled to do this because they are next door to Iran and a majority of the Iraqi population is Shi'ite, many of whom (not all) support Iran (but simultaneously want to retain their independence from Iran). If Baghdad didn't play ball with the militias, they fear that Iran would use the militias to overthrow the Iraqi government. Cooperating with the US helps provide a counter-balance to Iranian domination.

Hama appears to be in trouble. The Syrian army tried to set up a defensive position north of the city to stop rebels advancing south down the road. The rebels spent the last few days occupying the hills on both sides of the road, surrounding the Syrian positions on three sides. The Syrian army then abandoned their new positions and fell back into Hama. And the rebels have followed them into the city, where fighting is reportedly occurring.

The Syrian army is rushing reinforcements to Homs, Syria's third largest city, to the south of Hama. In order for that to be effective, the Syrian army will have to show more willingness to fight. (They fought well ten years ago, I don't know what's wrong with them now...)

The rebels have attacked the Russians for the first time, launching a drone attack on the Russian air base outside Latakia. (Turkey is a major drone manufacturer.) There appears to be little damage, but the Russians are setting up new surface to air missile batteries both there and at their naval facility in Tartus to the south.

Turkish-aligned rebels appear to be ethnic-cleansing Kurdish neighborhoods in Aleppo. Various human rights groups claim that a vehicle convoy of about 15,000 Kurdish residents trying to escape were intercepted by rebels and forced to go to an unknown location.

The Druze religious minority in southernmost Syria around Jebel Druze (Druze mountain), close to the Jordanian and Israeli borders, has risen and taken over several local cities and towns including Suwayda, the capital of as-Suwayda province. There's talk in Israel that the Israeli army might be preparing to seize a buffer zone in southernmost Syria, if the Syrian government continues to fall apart south of Damascus.

There are reports today of shooting near Assad's presidential palace and smoke is rising from the vicinity of the Syrian defense ministry in Damascus. People are talking about a drone attack on the ministry.

There are unconfirmed indications that the Syrian army might be preparing to withdraw from Deir ez-Zor governate in eastern Syria, and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Force Kurds are preparing to advance to fill the void if that's true. They are said to have already peacefully taken over Deir ez-Zor city, the provincial capital until recently held by the Syrian army.

Assad's wife and children are in Moscow and his brother in law is in the United Arab Emirates. Syrian state media is saying that Assad just landed in Tehran for talks with the Iranian leadership. (Update - after announcing that Assad was in Tehran, now Syrian state media is denying it, claming that Assad is in Damascus. My guess is that he might be in Iran, but fears that if Syrians think he fled the country, his army might just lay down their arms.)

Egypt and Jordan are calling on Assad to leave Syria and to establish a government in exile.

The big story is that his ally Russia isn't rushing to save his regime. Russia is busy in Ukraine at the moment and has more or less told Assad that there's nothing that Russia can do to turn things around if his own huge army won't fight for him. Russia just doesn't have the soldiers to spare.

It's less clear what Iran will do to help its most important foreign ally. That remains to be seen. (I don't expect much from Iran either.)

If Assad's government falls, Syria will be faced with the problem of what replaces him. There are several different rebel armies, some militant Islamist, some aligned with Turkey or the United States, that will all be jostling for a piece of the pie. So the fall of Assad won't bring peace to Syria. It will just create a power-vacuum.

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Reports are coming in that Hama has fallen to the rebels. The Syrian army is attempting to regroup at the larger city of Homs (Syria's third largest)

Far from helping their "ally" Syria, Iran has started evacuating officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iranian diplomatic personnel and their families from Syria, in anticipation of the immanent collapse of Syria's government. The Iranian embassy in Damascus has advised all Iranian civilians in Syria to leave the country.

Rebel forces have reportedly penetrated some of the northeastern neighborhoods of Homs, where intense fighting is going on between them and the minority of Syrian army forces still willing to fight.

Russia has ordered all Russian naval vessels to leave the Russian navy base at Tartus (the only Russian navy base in the entire Mediterranean). Rebel forces aren't close to Tartus and the concern seems to be drone attacks.

(Dec 7, 2024 02:59 AM)Yazata Wrote: Far from helping their "ally" Syria, Iran has started evacuating officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iranian diplomatic personnel and their families from Syria, in anticipation of the immanent collapse of Syria's government. The Iranian embassy in Damascus has advised all Iranian civilians in Syria to leave the country.

Rebel forces have reportedly penetrated some of the northeastern neighborhoods of Homs, where intense fighting is going on between them and the minority of Syrian army forces still willing to fight.

Russia has ordered all Russian naval vessels to leave the Russian navy base at Tartus (the only Russian navy base in the entire Mediterranean). Rebel forces aren't close to Tartus and the concern seems to be drone attacks.

IOW, the rebels picked a good time. The sugar daddies are too preoccupied with business matters and the restlessness of their own domestic households -- and it's too far till the next weekend -- to protect poor Honey Baby from the wolves.

(Dec 6, 2024 10:20 PM)Yazata Wrote: Egypt and Jordan are calling on Assad to leave Syria and to establish a government in exile.

Jordan is denying this and say it's fake news.

nsNS

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(Dec 7, 2024 03:24 AM)C C Wrote: IOW, the rebels picked a good time. The sugar daddies are too preoccupied with business matters and the restlessness of their own domestic households -- and it's too far till the next weekend -- to protect poor Honey Baby from the wolves.

Russia already has plenty on their plate, while they fight a proxy war in Ukraine against all of NATO. The last thing that Moscow needs right now is what amounts to another proxy war in Syria against Turkey (a NATO member). (Which makes me wonder whether the CIA and/or British Intelligence had a hand in planning this for precisely that reason.)

I'm more surprised by the Iranian IRGC rolling over and pulling out of Syria. They've revealed themselves to be a lot better at stirring up trouble through proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis) than they are at actually fighting even a relatively small rebellion themselves. It kind of ruins the reputation that the IRGC have been trying to create of a force tough enough to be able to challenge Israel and even the United States.

Losing Syria will put a big dent in the Iranian-dominated 'fertile crescent' axis extending from the Mediterranean coast in Lebanon, through Syria, Iraq and Iran, all the way to the Afghan and Pakistani borders. I really expected Iran to do more to save it.

They just seem impotent right now. It's a huge loss for Tehran. Netanyahu must be loving it.