Israel-Gaza War (and Iranian Distractions)

Iran's UN delegation says: "Iran's armed forces will not engage, provided that the Israeli apartheid does not dare to attack Iran, its interests, and nationals. The resistance front can defend itself.”

It's not clear what "the resistance front" includes. Is Iranian funded and equipped Hezbollah included? Is Iran just saying that they will pursue the war by proxy forces?

For its part, Hezbollah (they essentially operate as a foreign arm of Iran's Revolutionary Guards) said today that the recent increase in shooting along Israel's northern border is "only skirmishes" and constitutes a "warning". They say that it doesn't mean that Hezbollah has decided to enter into the Israel-Hamas war.

It's hard to know how seriously to take any of this. (I'm hugely skeptical.) But it does kind of look like Iran just might be abandoning Hamas.

The whole Arab world has always abandoned Palestine. They've always refused to take in Palestinian refugees, usually out of fear, ostensibly, that they would be a radical and disrupting problem. But it also may be that the Arab states enjoy having a proxy and fodder.

Saudi Arabia has apparently ceased talks of normalizing relations with Israel over this war. That would seem to indicate that they no longer fear Iran as much as they previously did. But if Iran shows more signs of acquiring nuclear weapons, that's very likely to change again.

A large Naval Fleet either already in the eastern Mediterranean or headed there includes:

- 2 Aircraft Carriers (both United States)
USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78)
USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69)

- 2 Ticonderoga-Class Cruisers (both United States)
USS Normandy (CG-60)
USS Philippines Sea (CG-58)

- 7 Arleigh Burke-Class Destroyers (United States)
USS Thomas Hudner (DDG-116)
USS Ramage (DDG-61)
USS Carney (DDG-64)
USS Roosevelt (DDG-80)
USS Laboon (DDG-58)
USS Mason (DDG-87)
USS Gravely (DDG-107)

- 1 Type-45 Air Defense Destroyer (Great Britain)
HMS Duncan (D-37)

- 5 Frigates
ESPS Méndez Núñez (F-104) (Spain)
FS Surcouf (F-711) (France)
ITS Carlo Margottini (F-592) (Italy)
TCG Yavuz (F-240) (Turkey)
HS Psara (F-454) (Greece)

- 2 Landing Support Ships (both Great Britain)
RFA Lyme Bay
RFA Argus

Plus an unannounced number of submarines. During the Cold War two United States nuclear subs typically accompanied each carrier battle group (I don't know if that's still true) so four are possible. There may be European subs as well. Navies don't like to talk about submarine operations, as they are the original stealth-ships.

There will also be supply ships, fleet oilers and other auxiliaries.

The fleet grows larger

The Bataan Amphibious Ready Group which had been in the northwest Indian ocean is heading to the eastern Mediterranean. It includes 2,500 US Marines with the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit.

- 1 Amphibious Assault Ship
USS Bataan (LHD-5) essentially a small aircraft carrier able to launch helicopter and water-borne landing craft

- 1 Landing Ship Dock
USS Carter Hall (LSD-50) with landing craft

and probably some support ships and defensive destroyers/frigates

They will join up in the eastern Med with

- 1 Amphibious Transport Dock

USS Mesa Verde (LPD-19) with landing craft
which had been undergoing maintainance in Spain

Iran is talking war again.

The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament announced ​that if a Ground Invasion of Gaza occurs that Iran will “Open up the Gates of Hell” against Israel.

The Iranian foreign minister says that “Preemptive Measures” will taken by the Axis of Resistance against Israel in the coming hours. The Axis of Resistance includes Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah. He says that the chance for peace with Israel is quickly becoming impossible and that the likelihood of the conflict expanding is becoming inevitable.

And all of today's Iranian threats were accompanied by videos of Iranian missiles and drones blowing things up.

Hezbollah controls much of southern Lebanon and operates as a state within a state. So if they go to war with Israel, Lebanon will be drawn in. More airlines say that they are canceling flights in and out of Beirut.

Hezbollah has about 50,000 fighters, but they would probably lose if they come across the border. But they have thousands of Iranian supplied rockets and drones, so I expect a massive rocket and drone attack like nothing Israel has ever seen before. The Israeli response will be scorched earth in southern Lebanon.

Given that Israel has nuclear weapons and they will use them if they believe the survival of Israel is at stake, things might conceivably get very dicey if Israel starts losing to those sworn to destroy not only their country but them as well.

(Oct 17, 2023 01:11 AM)Yazata Wrote: The Iranian foreign minister says ... that the chance for peace with Israel is quickly becoming impossible...

Only a moron would think that Iran would even entertain the notion of peace with Israel, regardless of Israel does or doesn't do.

This went out to the Israeli army last night (English version)

I just watched a 2 min newsreel re the bombing of a hospital in Gaza by Israel. I know it’s war and with truth being the first casualty I hesitate to say staged or accidental. What I did notice from this news clip was that there were no women seen in any of the footage. No female rescuers, no deceased female victims, no injured females and no female children. Is that the way it is over there, women not allowed in or near hospitals?

I'm not sure how strict Hamas are about women and modesty. Possibly the photographer gave advance notice to avoid giving offence (or being killed) or maybe it was better to leave the women in the rubble than drag them out. idk. Strict Islamic dress for females probably wouldn't work well in a search and rescue scenario.

I wouldn't put it beyond Hamas to bomb their own hospital, in order to garner international sympathy to curb Israel from annihilating them. If not, Israel gave plenty of warning for civilians, while Hamas told civilians to stay and even blocked roads out. Either way, the blood is solely on Hamas' hands.