Dec 24, 2020 03:01 AM
(This post was last modified: Dec 24, 2020 04:53 AM by C C.)
https://reason.com/2020/12/22/humanity-a...g-in-2100/
EXCERPTS: . . . These dire calculations and projections come from authoritative-sounding reports issued by international agencies, conservation groups, and peer-reviewed scientific journals. But is the future of wild nature and human civilization really so bleak?
Not according to the demographic and ecological trends that Marian Tupy and I describe in our book Ten Global Trends Every Smart Person Should Know (Cato Institute). Data from uncontroversial mainstream sources strongly indicate that both humanity and the natural world are likely to be flourishing rather than collapsing at the end of this century.
World population, today about 7.7 billion, likely will peak at 8.9 billion by 2060 and decline to 7.8 billion by the end of this century. This projection is based on the fact that women around the world are choosing to have fewer children, causing the global average fertility rate (the number of children per woman of childbearing age) to plummet from 5 in 1960 to 2.4 now.
According to a July analysis in The Lancet, that rate will fall to 1.5 by the end of this century. Other global trends—such as steeply falling child mortality rates, increased urbanization, rising incomes, expanding education of women, and the spread of political and economic freedom—all strongly correlate with the choice to have fewer children.
Human ingenuity, enlarged through free markets, is also enabling us to get ever more goods and services from fewer and fewer resources. [...] Humanity is becoming an urban species, and that's good for the environment, since city dwellers generally use less electricity, emit less globe-warming carbon dioxide, and have smaller land footprints than people living in the countryside...
The amount of farmland needed to sustain humanity peaked at the beginning of this century, according to data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Considering that agriculture is the most expansive and intensive way in which people transform natural landscapes, that is really good news for other species. The trend will reinforce ongoing depopulation of rural areas, freeing up ever greater swaths of land...
[...] Aquaculture is already supplying about half of the fish that humanity consumes. Much as rising crop productivity is freeing up land for nature, fish farming could help relieve pressure on overfished wild stocks in our oceans, lakes, and rivers...
[...] Developed land is already reverting to nature. In 2018, researchers at the University of Maryland reported that the global tree canopy increased by 865,000 square miles between 1982 and 2016. That's a land area larger than Alaska and Montana combined... (MORE - details)
EXCERPTS: . . . These dire calculations and projections come from authoritative-sounding reports issued by international agencies, conservation groups, and peer-reviewed scientific journals. But is the future of wild nature and human civilization really so bleak?
Not according to the demographic and ecological trends that Marian Tupy and I describe in our book Ten Global Trends Every Smart Person Should Know (Cato Institute). Data from uncontroversial mainstream sources strongly indicate that both humanity and the natural world are likely to be flourishing rather than collapsing at the end of this century.
World population, today about 7.7 billion, likely will peak at 8.9 billion by 2060 and decline to 7.8 billion by the end of this century. This projection is based on the fact that women around the world are choosing to have fewer children, causing the global average fertility rate (the number of children per woman of childbearing age) to plummet from 5 in 1960 to 2.4 now.
According to a July analysis in The Lancet, that rate will fall to 1.5 by the end of this century. Other global trends—such as steeply falling child mortality rates, increased urbanization, rising incomes, expanding education of women, and the spread of political and economic freedom—all strongly correlate with the choice to have fewer children.
Human ingenuity, enlarged through free markets, is also enabling us to get ever more goods and services from fewer and fewer resources. [...] Humanity is becoming an urban species, and that's good for the environment, since city dwellers generally use less electricity, emit less globe-warming carbon dioxide, and have smaller land footprints than people living in the countryside...
The amount of farmland needed to sustain humanity peaked at the beginning of this century, according to data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Considering that agriculture is the most expansive and intensive way in which people transform natural landscapes, that is really good news for other species. The trend will reinforce ongoing depopulation of rural areas, freeing up ever greater swaths of land...
[...] Aquaculture is already supplying about half of the fish that humanity consumes. Much as rising crop productivity is freeing up land for nature, fish farming could help relieve pressure on overfished wild stocks in our oceans, lakes, and rivers...
[...] Developed land is already reverting to nature. In 2018, researchers at the University of Maryland reported that the global tree canopy increased by 865,000 square miles between 1982 and 2016. That's a land area larger than Alaska and Montana combined... (MORE - details)
