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Biden's Covid ''team'' discussing another national lockdown

#11
Syne Offline
(Nov 18, 2020 10:37 PM)confused2 Wrote: I have to conclude the '1 in 5' figure for hospitalisation (source 'the Internet') is poorly sourced and may be an artifact of only testing people who already have serious symptoms.  I take your 217 hospitalisations per 100,000 (source CDC) as being the relevant figure for America - so, as you suggest, US hospitals may have sufficient capacity.

Unfortunately your figure of 0.02% death rate does not match the source you quote. 254,563 deaths from  11,715,041 is about a 2% death rate. As in my post above where I suggested (guessed) a leveling of with half the population infected (150 million) this would suggest 3 million deaths. 

As before - either taking my guesswork or suggesting a better approach - are (for example) 3 million deaths acceptable?  

You're right, it is about 2.17% death rate. But that's the total, cumulative death rate, including when no one had any idea how to treat it. In the latest spike in cases, there hasn't been a matching spike in deaths, and as more are infected, everyone expects the death rate to continue to drop. So 3 million may be an overestimate.

Acceptable? Compared to what? Countries with more mandated lock downs, masking, and social distancing are currently seeking spikes in cases as well. Both red and blue states, with wildly different Covid policies are seeing spikes. The UK currently has more deaths per million and seeing a much larger spike in deaths per million than the US, according to: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

There is just no hard evidence that any lock down or masking measures help. And there's enough places trying enough different policies, or lack thereof, to compare.

(Nov 18, 2020 11:36 PM)confused2 Wrote: https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpspro...nov-nc.png

More cases doesn't mean much, as they can be due to more asymptomatic spread, that increases herd immunity, and greater testing capacity. The death rate per million is the only important and comparable figure. But the media is keen on fearmongering.
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#12
confused2 Offline
Syne Wrote:The death rate per million is the only important and comparable figure. But the media is keen on fearmongering.

[Image: _115552989_uk_daily_deaths_with_ra_18november-nc.png]
[Image: _115552989_uk_daily_deaths_with_ra_18november-nc.png]



Clearly whatever the UK did actually worked - more info on request.
We need to see if the UK death rate follows the UK infection rate .. the word on the street is that there is a four week delay .. so we wait and see.
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#13
Leigha Offline
While this is a global problem, the US “seems” to be doing a poor job controlling Covid. (according to the media) But, I have a sneaking suspicion when Biden takes office (and he likely will), suddenly Covid cases will be “decreasing”. The media will change the narrative and Biden will look like a savior. The fear mongering will come to an end.

Wait for it. Wink

This isn’t to say of course that we shouldn’t be cautious. We should still be vigilant with mask wearing, hand washing and so on. But, blaming Trump while people are dying on his watch, will not make Biden look good. My prediction is - Covid will be contained and cases on a rapid decline when Biden takes over. (even if that’s untrue) The media would rather slash its collective wrists that hurt their puppet’s reputation.

I used to think Biden was a decent man until I read that article about his cancer “foundation,” and how he crossed the line bordering corruption over his son, Hunter. So...just like those stories vanish...so will fear mongering over Covid.

Politics have become gross. If I were a Democrat, this wouldn’t be a proud moment.
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#14
confused2 Offline
Leigha Wrote:I used to think Biden was a decent man until I read that article about his cancer “foundation,” and how he crossed the line bordering corruption over his son, Hunter. So...just like those stories vanish...so will fear mongering over Covid.
Could you post your doubts on the Biden charity scam thread? I'm interested but it's off-topic on this thread.
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#15
Syne Offline
(Nov 19, 2020 12:21 AM)Leigha Wrote: While this is a global problem, the US “seems” to be doing a poor job controlling Covid. (according to the media) But, I have a sneaking suspicion when Biden takes office (and he likely will), suddenly Covid cases will be “decreasing”. The media will change the narrative and Biden will look like a savior. The fear mongering will come to an end.

The US only seems to be doing poorly because people are comparing small European countries to the US, where most would actually compare better with US states. They're not comparing apples to apples, which is why I point out the deaths per million stat, where the US is doing better than the UK. That's the only fair way to compare countries of wildly different geographic and population sizes. Europe as a whole is doing worse than the US, in both cases and deaths.

The media can't very well say all the deaths are Trumps fault and then admit deaths are continuing under Biden.
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#16
confused2 Offline
It is interesting (surprising?) to see that the US hospitalisation rate is very much lower than the US death rate - (without checking a source) - only 1 in a hundred people dying of Covid 19 were admitted to a US hospital whereas in the UK (source 'The Internet') the bias is the other way where 10 people are admitted to hospital for every one that dies. While it may be that US hospitals are the best in the world - they seem to be achieving very good results with Covid 19 patients without actually seeing them.
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#17
Yazata Offline
A disproportionate number of covid deaths are people with other life-threatening medical conditions that were perfectly capable of killing the individual. Things like COPD, congestive heart failure and such things. That's why covid fatalities are disproportionately the elderly. What covid often does is pile onto frail people with life-threatening conditions, hastening them through death's door. Just think of how many people die on a normal day, it's probably not all that far behind the number of births on that day. (We don't like to think about the fact that somewhere between 1% and 2% of the population is going to be dying in any normal year. Everyone who is born eventually dies.) Yet many of these are now being counted as covid deaths in the statistics.

Most of the US covid deaths happened early in the epidemic, when state officials were requiring hospitals to move less-ill covid patients to nursing homes and weren't allowing the nursing homes to refuse them. And we all know that the nursing homes are filled with the most frail elderly. So thousands of nursing home residents died in those early days. In some US states, more than half of covid fatalities were in nursing homes. I wouldn't be surprised to see that similar things happened in Canada and Europe.

The reason why the officials made such an appalling blunder is that they were relying on terribly alarmist predictions from the scientists. Remember that Imperial College London model that everyone was taking as gospel for a while? Remember all the shrieking about ventilators? ... that were never needed. Remember all the shrieking about hospitals being flooded with new cases? ... which never happened. The scientists were predicting an overwhelming surge of patients and ultimately millions of dead. Thankfully it never happened, but it did succeed in panicking some state politicians whose efforts to clear hospital beds for a wave of cases that never materialized resulted in thousands of dead in the nursing homes.

Today there's great excitement in the mainstream-news media about increasing numbers of cases. I would guess that's in large part the result of increased testing that are catching many minor or even asymptomatic cases. There was always a suspicion that there are lots of asymptomatic positives out there. (That's why asymptomatic people are required to wear masks.) I still remember Deborah Birx saying that people shouldn't freak out when numbers of cases rise as tests become more common. It was expected. 

Hospitalization and fatality rates are much lower than they were early in this thing when it was being so badly mismanaged. Among healthy people, especially those who are younger, the severity of this thing isn't necessarily all that bad in most cases.

So to get a real handle on this thing among the general population, those early extreme spikes in fatality numbers months ago probably need to be disregarded as unrepresentative and attention directed to recent months. How many of these new cases are leading to hospitalizations? How many of them end up as fatalities? I'd wager that the real fatality number is a small fraction of that 2%.

It seems to me that the best policy on covid might be to release the lockdowns, and replace them with increased protection for vulnerable populations like those ill with other conditions and the frail elderly. For most people, this disease doesn't look any worse than a particularly bad strain of the flu. While the flu can be deadly in some people (that's why the elderly are encouraged to get their flu shots) it doesn't justify shutting down the whole economy, putting tens of millions of people on virtual house arrest and wiping out the entire small business sector, the lifeblood of many communities and of the middle class. 

At some point the cure becomes worse than the disease.
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#18
C C Offline
65,446 nursing home deaths from COVID-19 (total) at week ending 11/01/2020

August 10 claim (ABC news): Long-term care facilities across the nation have been ravaged by the coronavirus and have accounted for roughly 40% of virus-related deaths, data shows

November 11 claim (AARP): More than 91,000* residents and staff of nursing homes and other long-term care facilities have died from COVID-19, representing 40* percent of all coronavirus fatalities in the U.S., according to Kaiser Family Foundation’s most recent analysis released on November 9.

- - - - - -

By race: COVID-19 death percentages (NOV 12)

53.5% White 

20.5% Hispanic 

19.8% Black

4% Asian

1.1% Indigenous

0.9% Other

"Two out of three Black adults (66%) say the government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic would be stronger if White people where getting sick and dying at higher rates than people of color." --stated on "Kaiser Family Foundation" site on 11-18-20

- - - - - -

By age: death rates for COVID-19 in New York City as of November 17, 2020 (NYC only)

0-17 yrs: 0.88 deaths (per every 100,000 people)

18-24 yrs: 4.97

25-34 yrs: 12.81

35-44 yrs: 46.09

45-54 yrs: 127.03

55-64 yrs: 305.43

65-74 yrs: 667.92

75 and older: 1,698.87

- - - - - -

By state: deaths in states from COVID-19 in the United States as of November 18, 2020 (plus Puerto Rico, District of Columbia)

(1) New Jersey: 187 deaths (per every 100,000 people)

(2) New York: 176

(3) Massachusetts: 150

(4) Connecticut: 134

(5) Louisiana: 132

(6) Rhode Island: 121

[...]

(14) Florida: 82

[...]

(17) Indiana: 75

[...]

(22) Texas: 69

[...]

(28) Missouri: 56

[...]

(32) Ohio: 49

(33) California: 46

[...]

(48) Oregon: 18

- - - - - -

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1122...y-race-us/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109...york-city/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109...-by-state/
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#19
Secular Sanity Offline
I’ve been searching for stats that included the age. I couldn’t find any.

Thanks, C C!


(Nov 18, 2020 10:55 PM)Yazata Wrote: Here in California, the lockdown has been more of less continuous for the last eight months. When it started in March, there was the "15 days to stop the spread" slogan. Then that was extended a few times. Gradually it turned into an open-ended 'It will stop when we tell you'. Right now, there's no expectation that it will ever end. Everyone is talking about "the new normal".

The result, perhaps intentional, perhaps not, has been to basically destroy small business. The little shops up and down main streets are all closed or open under such restrictions that they can't be profitable. Many likely will never reopen. Landlords aren't getting rent. And soon, taxes aren't going to be paid.

Of course the federal government can simply print money. And they will enact "relief" measures, providing funds to state and local governments... provided that those governments behave as demanded. State and local autonomy will increasingly be a thing of the past as everyone and everything becomes more dependent for its survival on Washington (or on London, Ottawa, Brussels or whatever it is). 

While the local options (in everything) are being suppressed, the big politically-connected corporations all seem to have a special dispensation that declares them "essential". So all the business that went to the little main street shops is now going to Amazon and straight into Jeff Bezos' pocket. You know that he just loves the shutdowns and has probably been lobbying behind the scenes for them to continue. We can't gather at the local bar or restaurant, but Mark Zuckerberg's Facebook is going strong. Gather on-line, they say, so they can monopolize our social lives too. Live entertainment is dead, but television and netflix are still there. Anything unique and alternative is drying up and blowing away like dust.

If it's big and controlled by elites top-down, it's encouraged to continue. If it's small, a grass-roots matter of people choosing for themselves where to spend their time and their creative energies, it's being suppressed. The same thing is playing out throughout our lives. I'm starting to suspect that it's intentional social-engineering, designed to herd all the cats into a few channels all controlled by the same few big players. Liberty, choice and autonomy in one's own life? Increasingly a thing of the past.

The disease originated in China. Perhaps in more ways than one.

This is a little weird. They’re claiming that this is just another Covid-19 conspiracy theory but I find the video of Justin Trudeau's Reset just as creepy as Kamala Harris'-Equality vs. Equity video. It's  something that you’d expect to see in a 2030's si-fi version of Orwell's 1984.

Transcript:

"Building back better means getting support to the most vulnerable while maintaining our momentum on reaching the 2030 agenda for sustainable development and the SDG’s (sustainable development goals). Canada is here to listen and to help. This pandemic has provided an opportunity for a reset. This is our chance to accelerate our pre-pandemic efforts, to reimagine economic systems that actually address global challenges like extreme poverty, inequality and climate change."—Justin Trudeau

SOURCE

SOURCE
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#20
C C Offline
(Nov 19, 2020 02:07 PM)Secular Sanity Wrote: I’ve been searching for stats that included the age. I couldn’t find any.

Thanks, C C!

Since it would exceed several times over a claimed 26,100 COVID-19 death total for New York state itself, they're not an accurate reflection of deaths per 100,000 in NYC over the whole run of the pandemic, though. Maybe they're restricted to the rates at this time (which still doesn't seem to fly) or "per 100,000" purely refers to members of that age group alone -- or whatever is up the original bean-counters' sleeve that might have a chance of making sense. 

But missing or obscured contexts for stats would be part of the exaggerated appearances for generating massive paranoia to help ensure Trump's removal. So confidence in the reliability of the numbers or a non-vague reflection of them was only a pertinent issue for the opposition, anyway (to make hay of, if it noticed no grounds for either).
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