The "homophobia is not increasing in UK" proposal (alt interpretations of data)

#1
https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/06/19...-the-rise/

EXCERPT: The horrific attack on a lesbian couple on a London bus has rightfully caused disgust and outrage. But according to many observers, attacks like this are a normal occurrence in Brexit Britain – a nation apparently rife with violent prejudice.

The Guardian carried a piece by one of the victims of the attack, which warned that the public’s sympathy for her and her partner was itself proof of the nation’s bigotry: it was only because we are racist and transphobic that we took any interest at all, apparently.

The same paper also produced some incredibly alarming statistics on the apparent state of hate in Britain today. Allegedly, England and Wales are in the grip of a ‘surge’ in homophobic and transphobic hate crime. [...] To make matters worse, according to LBGT campaigners, this rise in hate crime doesn’t even capture the true extent of the hatred out there.

[...] The truth is rather different. [...] as last year’s Home Office report made abundantly clear, large increases ‘are due to the improvements made by the police in their identification and recording of hate-crime offences and more people coming forward to report these crimes rather than a genuine increase’ (emphasis mine).

[...] Police-recorded data has other problems, too. Police are obliged to record not only criminal actions but also all non-crime hate incidents. A non-crime hate incident is literally any event that is perceived by the victim or any other person to be motivated by hostility towards a so-called protected characteristic. [...] In other words, for an incident to appear in the police-recorded hate-crime data, there does not have to be any evidence of any ‘hatred’, nor does the incident even have to be a crime. (MORE)
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#2
I still don't know that the attacks by teens are motivated by any real hate of a particular group. Like I said before, gang-like behavior targets vulnerable, ease victims.

There also seems to be a rise in UK violence in general, no matter how you classify it.
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#3
What isn't clear is the average age of the people people carrying out the attacks. Historically young people have moved from hula hoops to skateboards to tetris to .. and now what - gay bashing?
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#4
(Jun 21, 2019 12:36 AM)confused2 Wrote: What isn't clear is the average age of the people people carrying out the attacks.


Currently it might still be okay to reveal or be clearer about the data when they're secular and Christian offenders of Euro descent. But otherwise crime socio-demographics offered to the public might have to be deliberately vague to protect threatened ethnic minorities. For instance, there would likely be a non-trivial percentage of Muslim youth involved in LGBT-oriented attacks, just based on incidents over the last couple decades.

Even the AI algorithms UK police used were biased toward areas frequented by the "poor" as to where future crime would more likely be committed. (As in the USA, "poor" is probably half-code for something additional and sometimes other than economic status.) So you can't even feed the machines non-doctored or precise data about the past without the results being laced with offensive social-justice imbalances. Because of politically incorrect consequences, the individual human police themselves (mentioned below) were aware that they needed to at least curb their personal opinions about possibility back to at least "moderate" positions (when or if necessary). The machines lacked that refined capacity, as well as the motivation.

UK police are using AI to inform custodial decisions – but it could be discriminating against the poor: "I have a concern about the primary postcode predictor being in there," says Andrew Wooff, a criminology lecturer at Edinburgh Napier University, who specialises in the criminal justice system. Wooff adds that including location and socio-demographic data can reinforce existing biases in policing decisions and the judicial system. "You could see a situation where you are amplifying existing patterns of offending, if the police are responding to forecasts of high risk postcode areas."

The academic paper, the first review of HART to be published, states that postcode data could be related to "community deprivation". A person's "residence may be a relevant factor because of the aims of the intervention," the paper continues. If the postcode data is relied upon for building future models of reoffending then it could draw more attention to the neighbourhoods. "It is these predictors that are used to build the model – as opposed to the model itself – that are of central concern," the paper states.

The paper also highlights a "clear difference of opinion between human an algorithmic forecasts". During initial trials of the algorithm, members of the police force were asked to mimic its outcomes by predicting whether a person would be of a low, moderate or high risk of reoffending. Almost two-thirds of the time (63.5 per cent) police officers ranked offenders in the moderate category. "The model and officers agree online 56.2 per cent of the time," the paper explains.




(Jun 21, 2019 12:36 AM)confused2 Wrote: Historically young people have moved from hula hoops to skateboards to tetris to .. and now what - gay bashing?

That said, of course we're both well familiar with how the broad operating template for vocal school bullying is to derive (mild to severe) insults from some obvious outward characteristic of a student's appearance, behavior, etc. For instance if they wear eyeglasses they might get called "four-eyes", if they're overweight they get called "fatso", and so forth.

If ethnic or sexual orientation attributes were the most convenient ones available, then those will be opportunistically selected (especially historically). Even though the underlying template of "insult" isn't even based on or driven by population-group hate or general hate (just zeroing in on anything that can torment the specific individual, instead). This is also relevant to the following...

Here's a clarification of what the last paragraph in the OP excerpt might have been referring to, with respect to "...in the police-recorded hate-crime data, there does not have to be any evidence of any ‘hatred’, nor does the incident even have to be a crime." This in turn stems from how traditional profanity no longer has any shock-value due to gratuitous overuse in the the entertainment industry and the rest of society. So that politically incorrect speech is now recruited to serve the same function, since it does still have (or has acquired) shock-value as well as social consequences.

U.K. Expands Hate Crime Law Enforcement with Vague Online Crackdown: . . . One might naturally assume that "hostility" on the basis of a person's race or sex or sexual orientation would be fairly clear-cut, at least as a legal matter. One would be wrong. Here's a case from a page of guidance on race-based hate crime prosecutions:

"The demonstration of hostility need not be based on any malevolence towards the group in question. Disposition at the time is irrelevant: see DPP v Green [2004] EWHC 1225 (Admin.) and R v Woods, in which it was irrelevant that the offender, who used racially abusive language to a doorman after being refused admission, might well have abused anyone standing in the victim's place by reference to any obvious physical characteristic.

To eliminate the jargon on this one: The defendant in this case was hostile toward a doorman, and he threw a racist term at him. Evidence suggests he might have been hostile toward whomever was in that doorman's position, and that the hostility had nothing to do with his race. But because he used a racist term, his behavior qualifies as a hate crime.

The case law can be confusing, if not contradictory. In one case, the fact that a defendant used racial slurs during an attack did not mean that his companions should also face hate crime enhancements. But in another case, a defendant was a member of a group whose members had a history of racial hostility, and that was enough.
"
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#5
CC Wrote:That said, of course we're both well familiar with how the broad operating template for vocal school bullying is to derive (mild to severe) insults from some obvious outward characteristic of a student's appearance, behavior, etc.
Children attack:-
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/po...ar-AADiKsr
Quote:The men, both in their 30s, were walking through the Anfield area at 9.20pm on Saturday when they were approached by three male youths, Merseyside Police said.
The youths made homophobic insults towards them before one of them produced a knife and assaulted the men.
..
One of the victims sustained injuries to his head and neck described as serious but non-life threatening while the second sustained a minor hand injury.
..
The offenders are described as between 12 and 15, with one wearing a dark bubble coat and one riding a bike.
As CC has already pointed out there may be a wilful absence of description of likely ethnic origins but the combination of bike, age and bubble coat suggests (to me) these might well be feral children from a good old white trash neighbourhood. Or maybe not. I'm going to introduce 'personal experience' which may (or may not) be of some value in an age of fake news.

Like MR (?) I've been 'gay bashed' in the vicinity of a gay bar. I was looking in the window of a junk shop (junk is one of my weaknesses) when I was hit from behind. My head hit the shop window and I could immediately taste blood in my mouth, Interesting? At the time the 'what happens next' was the part that interested me most. I turned to find two 18-year-olds in front of me (I would be twice their age at the time). I elected to talk while I regained my senses (as they say in romantic novels). It turned that they had assumed I was a look-out for the gay bar and when no gang of gays emerged from the bar to avenge their attack they were at a bit of a loss as to what to do next. What is relevant is that they were both 'well-spoken' - that is to say they were not from a trailer trash background (in England social class and accent are inextricably linked). As the exchange ended we may judge their class from the fact that they offered to shake hands and consider the matter closed. Irrelevant to the gay bashing theme is that I said "I don't shake hands with scum - just go home." (one of the few lines in my life I'm actually quite proud of ) and for a moment the two considered the merits of attack or retreat and chose to retreat. The boys didn't look or behave like fighters - they were 'something else'.

l
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#6
(Jun 19, 2019 04:48 AM)C C Wrote: Brexit Britain


i guess there is a rise in bigotry based violence
religious, ethnic, gender, sexual orientation, provincial & national.


it is simple logic from the pushing of extremist ideology.
while people fight to push people into hate groups it undermines the civility of society and so is a self fulfilling prophecy of the extremists.


i imagine this is the case across Europe in general.


xenophobia normalized in divisive politics normalizes hatred for that which is different or not understood.
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#7
It's not the right that has radicalized.

[Image: D-FqQdVWwAEcGot?format=jpg]

(source: NYT)
Between 2008 and 2012, the left moved farther left from it's old position than its difference from the right in 2008. This means that the political polarization is wholly due to the radicalization of the left.

The civility of society is undermined by extremists...wholly on the left.


[Image: 1513306898929.gif]
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#8
(Jun 29, 2019 07:26 PM)Syne Wrote: It's not the right that has radicalized.

[Image: D-FqQdVWwAEcGot?format=jpg]

(source: NYT)
Between 2008 and 2012, the left moved farther left from it's old position than its difference from the right in 2008. This means that the political polarization is wholly due to the radicalization of the left.

The civility of society is undermined by extremists...wholly on the left.


[Image: 1513306898929.gif]

WoW !
wiggly lines !

all hail precious baby jeses ! god of the politics
let us now prey to wiggly line babys jeses for he knows all radicalness

wiggly line baby jeses is the one true godly politic and should be god of the politic
church and state should be baby jeses man love best friends for life

only paybeey jeses knows whats best for politics
paabeey jeses should be president of all laws


solid rational from the right about bigotry based violence towards LGBTQ+
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#9
Yep, you have to deny facts to justify your nonsense. That makes you one of the extremists and part of the problem.
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#10
says the LGBTQ+ hater who wants the church to run the government ...
yeah ! no extremism there for sure
totally fair and un biased for sure !

your such a pillar of moral balance !
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