swine flu in china

#1
looks really bad.
probably vastly worse than being reported so far.

china consumes a massive amount of pork
it is a staple of their food security.


this looks very ominous

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/15/busin...index.html

what concerns me is the high probability that swine flu infected pork will be put to market.

good news for American pork farmers.
i expect the global price for pork will start to climb in the next 2 weeks quietly at first. then possible jump a bit more after about 1 month or 2 after the state of chinas swine flu comes to better understanding.

i am guessing china(maybe local rather than central government) is trying to play to down as much as possible to avoid mass pig culls.

for china it could not have come at a worse time with the tariffs being applied.
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#2
(May 15, 2019 03:18 PM)RainbowUnicorn Wrote: . . . good news for American pork farmers.


Yah, China has been buying a lot since December, despite those retaliatory 62% tariffs imposed on US pork.

Quote:i am guessing china(maybe local rather than central government) is trying to play to down as much as possible to avoid mass pig culls.


The (severer?) punishment implications of single-party bureaucracy, as administered to officials lower in rank, is apparently skewering accuracy.

Also in Hebei, fellow farmer Zhang Haixia watched all her 600 pigs die. The official cause of death, she was told, was a regular swine influenza. "The local officials were afraid to be accountable," she told CNN. "They threatened us that there would be consequences if we reported to higher-ups in the government. They are afraid of losing their jobs because of this."

Quote:for china it could not have come at a worse time with the tariffs being applied.
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#3
(May 15, 2019 04:19 PM)C C Wrote:
(May 15, 2019 03:18 PM)RainbowUnicorn Wrote: . . . good news for American pork farmers.


Yah, China has been buying a lot since December, despite those retaliatory 62% tariffs imposed on US pork.  

Quote:i am guessing china(maybe local rather than central government) is trying to play to down as much as possible to avoid mass pig culls.


The (severer?) punishment implications of single-party bureaucracy, as administered to officials lower in rank, is apparently skewering accuracy.

Also in Hebei, fellow farmer Zhang Haixia watched all her 600 pigs die. The official cause of death, she was told, was a regular swine influenza. "The local officials were afraid to be accountable," she told CNN. "They threatened us that there would be consequences if we reported to higher-ups in the government. They are afraid of losing their jobs because of this."

Quote:for china it could not have come at a worse time with the tariffs being applied.

with china not regulating breeding programs i am guessing most pigs will be of the same genetic line that is highly susceptible to the swine flu type.
they are likely to buy vastly more amounts of foreign chickens to make up for it.
pork is a Chinese cultural staple
if this takes hold many politicians may lose their job for not running a better agricultural bio security program(if they have such an organization)
beef prices are likely to jump, and most of that comes from usa new zealand and australia and is priced quite highly as world top grade beef.
the on flow effects of poor quality beef farming practices as well as poor quality crisis management is likely to risk outbreaks of foot and mouth.
any hints of BSE and they will be looking at global markets closing to them and quite a substantial national disaster.

with a run on unregulated live chicken sales to china it may raise the issues of bird flu.

Quote:African swine fever (ASF) is decimating China's pork industry, by far the biggest in the world. Dutch bank Rabobank, which lends to the global agricultural sector, estimates the country's pig population could shrink by a third in 2019 -- up to 200 million animals -- through a combination of the disease and culling.

To put it in context, that's almost as many pigs as in the US and Europe combined.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/15/busin...index.html

Quote:China, the world's largest soybean buyer, has seen its pig population ravaged by African Swine Fever. China mostly uses soybean for crushing it into high-protein pig feed.

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/marke...bean-trade

Quote:S&P Global Platts Analytics estimates that ASF could cut China's soybean imports in 2018-19 to 80 million mt, down 15% year on year and the first major year-on-year decline seen in many years. Analysts say the repercussions of ASF could last longer, which may keep China's soybean demand lower than previous levels.


[Image: 20190515_swine_flu_crisis_small.gif]


looks like this Christmas may come early for Brazil

i am guessing Europe will have trouble selling Brazilian deforested soya to their environmentally conscious customers.
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