We're All Doomed!!! End of the World in 2027!!!

#1
http://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/2019/...al_impact/

https://twitter.com/esaoperations/status...1598672904

https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/pd/cs/pdc19/

https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/pd/cs/pdc19/day1.html

Planetary Defense?! Where is CC's Space Guard now that we need them??

(I guess that it doesn't matter any more that I've been eating bacon all my life... that's the upside...)

...now it's up to CC in her sexy spacesuit with her ray-gun, riding a giant rocket ship that Elon Musk and a bunch of Texas guys in pickup trucks just kind of threw together in a field somewhere. Saving the whole damn planet!!

https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/nda/  

https://www.space.com/asteroid-impact-si...-2019.html

https://www.iflscience.com/space/nasa-an...this-week/

https://bgr.com/2019/04/29/asteroid-simu...-exercise/


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...And you all laughed at Trump's Space Force...
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#2
Time to speed up the testing of DART. Get it atop its Falcon 9 and on the way. A big-bad, refrigerator-sized impactor that has been doing some trash-talking about how it will deflect an asteroid lightweight. (Didymos)

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#3
Fuck it. I'll be 67. Bring it on.
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#4
Things are getting worse. It was 1/100 chance of hitting, now it's 1/10.


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#5
I wonder if building an underground bunker might be worth it? Asking for a friend. Big Grin
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#6
The Day2 Briefing Book is pretty fascinating. It goes into a lot of detail about what parts of the world are at what kind of risk. (The equivalent of a multi-hundred-megaton nuclear airburst, with thermal and blast effects, tsunamis, and all kinds of bad stuff. Then it looks at various deflection scenarios, what kind of orbits might work, the uncertainties involved and more bad stuff.

Download it here:

https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/pd/cs/pdc19/p...efing2.pdf

(May 1, 2019 04:48 AM)Leigha Wrote: I wonder if building an underground bunker might be worth it? Asking for a friend. Big Grin

This planning exercise imagines a pretty small asteroid, about 100-500 meters across. (Lots of uncertainty. The upper end of the range would make it as big as Bennu.) Not a giant planet killer hundreds of kilometers across, the size of Texas. But even the little one is bad enough. It would enter the earth's atmosphere like a blazing bolide, flaring to up to 5800 megatons of energy. That's like 290 times the larger cold war 20 megaton hydrogen bombs.

It might be worth going underground for me. I live in the South SF Bay Area in an area right on the cusp between what they call 'severe' and 'critical'. 'severe' predicts 30% fatalities, 3'd degree burns for those exposed to the sky (imagine that Chelyabinsk bolide on steroids), doors and windows blown out of buildings and widespread structural damage. 'critical' predicts 60% fatalities, buildings mostly blown down, anything flammable set on fire. Very nuclear...

I'd guess that evacuating to an area with less probability of sustaining a hit might be a better plan though. (New York City, Cleveland and Denver are right along the track where it could hit and if it hit them, it's labeled 'unsurvivable' (100% casualties, total destruction). If it hit in one of those places it could result in many millions of dead. I don't think that even an underground bunker would help if an asteroid hit right on top of you. It might even punch a hole right through the earth's crust, like shooting the earth with a bullet. Even if it comes into the atmosphere like an unconsolidated bunch of gravel, it would still release similar energy with all the same heat and blast effects. (It's a function of total mass being decelerated, I guess.) Lotsa bad news.

If they could produce a more precise idea of where on earth it would hit, people could probably try to evacuate the area for a less threatened area. But that requires fairly reliable impact predictions which will be hard to produce, especially early.

See page 9 in the briefing book.
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#7
In their scenario they are succeeding in characterizing the oncoming asteroid. It's supposed to be a contact binary (humm... wonder what made them think of that?) about 200 meters across. Estimated to release 510 megatons of energy when it hits Earth. (Better than 5800 megatons, but it's still 25 times the size of a large Cold War H-bomb.) Less tsunami threat if it hits at sea.

https://twitter.com/esaoperations/status...6007957507


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Here's some estimated results if it landed on Denver:


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#8
(May 2, 2019 03:36 AM)Yazata Wrote: Here's some estimated results if it landed on Denver:


Colorado Springs is circa 114 kilometers from Denver (although that might be by bent road rather than straight line), with the military Cheyenne Mountain Complex nearby. Its defensive bunker would probably survive if it's in the lighter zones or well beyond. Certainly wouldn't want to bet on its chances if it was ground zero, though.
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#9
(May 1, 2019 07:25 PM)Yazata Wrote: The Day2 Briefing Book is pretty fascinating. It goes into a lot of detail about what parts of the world are at what kind of risk. (The equivalent of a multi-hundred-megaton nuclear airburst, with thermal and blast effects, tsunamis, and all kinds of bad stuff. Then it looks at various deflection scenarios, what kind of orbits might work, the uncertainties involved and more bad stuff.

Download it here:

https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/pd/cs/pdc19/p...efing2.pdf

(May 1, 2019 04:48 AM)Leigha Wrote: I wonder if building an underground bunker might be worth it? Asking for a friend. Big Grin

This planning exercise imagines a pretty small asteroid, about 100-500 meters across. (Lots of uncertainty. The upper end of the range would make it as big as Bennu.) Not a giant planet killer hundreds of kilometers across, the size of Texas. But even the little one is bad enough. It would enter the earth's atmosphere like a blazing bolide, flaring to up to 5800 megatons of energy. That's like 290 times the larger cold war 20 megaton hydrogen bombs.

It might be worth going underground for me. I live in the South SF Bay Area in an area right on the cusp between what they call 'severe' and 'critical'. 'severe' predicts 30% fatalities, 3'd degree burns for those exposed to the sky (imagine that Chelyabinsk bolide on steroids), doors and windows blown out of buildings and widespread structural damage. 'critical' predicts 60% fatalities, buildings mostly blown down, anything flammable set on fire. Very nuclear...

I'd guess that evacuating to an area with less probability of sustaining a hit might be a better plan though. (New York City, Cleveland and Denver are right along the track where it could hit and if it hit them, it's labeled 'unsurvivable' (100% casualties, total destruction). If it hit in one of those places it could result in many millions of dead. I don't think that even an underground bunker would help if an asteroid hit right on top of you. It might even punch a hole right through the earth's crust, like shooting the earth with a bullet. Even if it comes into the atmosphere like an unconsolidated bunch of gravel, it would still release similar energy with all the same heat and blast effects. (It's a function of total mass being decelerated, I guess.) Lotsa bad news.

If they could produce a more precise idea of where on earth it would hit, people could probably try to evacuate the area for a less threatened area. But that requires fairly reliable impact predictions which will be hard to produce, especially early.

See page 9 in the briefing book.
You have time lol but you really need to have a good plan to be safe. Can you imagine, the earth being shot with a ''bullet?'' I worry too about the debris being kicked up into the atmosphere.
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#10
heavy lift MOAB sized cluster bomb missile that lays a 5 kilometer long string of pearl bombs that detonate with proximity mass radar detectors & multiple laser range and size detectors.
with 2 auxiliary missiles that can track & loiter the pathway to clear any additional fragments.
probably moon stationed for faster launch


backed up with 3 super high orbit counter-geo-orbit 'stationary' super long range lasrers with onboard mega-multi-swarm missile batterys of very small independently arming & independently launchable...
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