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Hurricanes of the future: slower, stronger, wetter

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https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20...131532.htm

EXCERPT: Scientists have developed a detailed analysis of how 22 recent hurricanes would be different if they formed under the conditions predicted for the late 21st century. While each storm's transformation would be unique, on balance, the hurricanes would become a little stronger, a little slower-moving, and a lot wetter.

[...] The study, led by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and published in the Journal of Climate, compares high-resolution computer simulations of more than 20 historical, named Atlantic storms with a second set of simulations that are identical but for a warmer, wetter climate that's consistent with the average scientific projections for the end of the century. "Our research suggests that future hurricanes could drop significantly more rain," said NCAR scientist Ethan Gutmann, who led the study.

[...] With more people and businesses relocating to coastal regions, the potential influence of environmental change on hurricanes has significant implications for public safety and the economy. Last year's hurricane season, which caused an estimated $215 billion in losses according to reinsurance company Munich RE, was the costliest on record.

[...] As a group, storms in simulations of the future had 6 percent stronger average hourly maximum wind speeds than those in the past. They also moved at 9 percent slower speeds and had 24 percent higher average hourly maximum rainfall rates. Average storm radius did not change. [...] there was one consistent feature across storms: They all produced more rain.

While the study sheds light on how a particular storm might look in a warmer climate, it doesn't provide insight into how environmental change might affect storm genesis. [...] Other research has suggested that fewer storms may form in the future because of increasing atmospheric stability or greater high-level wind shear, though the storms that do form are apt to be stronger. "It's possible that in a future climate, large-scale atmospheric changes wouldn't allow some of these storms to form," Gutmann said. "But from this study, we get an idea of what we can expect from the storms that do form."

MORE: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20...131532.htm
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