The scientific limits of understanding complex social phenomena

#1
C C Offline
http://www.lse.ac.uk/philosophy/blog/201...phenomena/

EXCERPT: [...] This recent paper illustrates that the existing literature is laden with contradictory hypotheses and findings that suggest that this potential relationship can be positive or negative, stronger or weaker, differentiated or non-existent and can vary across and within countries and time periods.

However, fundamental methodological and empirical limitations of analysis do not allow us to make such claims robustly. This is partly because the process of democratisation and changes in levels of equality are highly nuanced, idiosyncratic and heterogeneous and thus difficult to capture econometrically. Some of the most prominent authors in this literature claim that high levels of inequality decrease the likelihood of democratisation, and they also talk about “causal effects” and “the impact of democracy” on outcomes. Such conclusions presuppose a number of very demanding assumptions and requisite premises that cannot be rigorously met.

In fact, thousands of academic papers analyse the potential relationship between political variables like democracy and economic variables like inequality by gathering their data, selecting their methods and then going forward with their analysis, interpreting their findings and potentially informing policy, with many other steps along the way that involve making important implicit methodological assumptions.

My approach (as outlined in this paper) is to instead go backwards to analyse whether the data and methods that are applied by the leading authors in this literature are able to produce the robust results that they claim....

MORE: http://www.lse.ac.uk/philosophy/blog/201...phenomena/
Reply


Possibly Related Threads…
Thread Author Replies Views Last Post
  Article Is understanding propaganda a necessary skill for modern democracy? (social sciences) C C 0 492 May 19, 2025 05:50 PM
Last Post: C C
  Article Computational 'short cuts' offer fast answers to complex supply chain problems C C 0 324 Apr 26, 2023 08:34 PM
Last Post: C C
  Is progress slowing down? Do we need a better understanding of 'progress'? C C 2 589 Jun 19, 2022 06:24 PM
Last Post: Magical Realist
  Walmart modifies store hours, limits purchases for certain items + Asda changes (UK) C C 0 382 Mar 19, 2020 06:05 PM
Last Post: C C
  Limits & diminishing returns of innovation + Disparities of science policy C C 0 563 Dec 26, 2016 03:06 AM
Last Post: C C
  Abandoning 'statistically significant' + Modeling shifting beliefs in complex society C C 0 659 Oct 21, 2016 09:07 PM
Last Post: C C
  Statistics is dead - long live statistics + Is climate change too complex to predict? C C 0 836 Jul 29, 2016 06:00 AM
Last Post: C C
  Universal resilience patterns in complex networks C C 0 740 Feb 24, 2016 08:29 PM
Last Post: C C
  Complex web of vested interests promote calcium & vitamin D despite lack of data C C 0 587 Jan 1, 2016 06:42 PM
Last Post: C C



Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)