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The scientific limits of understanding complex social phenomena

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http://www.lse.ac.uk/philosophy/blog/201...phenomena/

EXCERPT: [...] This recent paper illustrates that the existing literature is laden with contradictory hypotheses and findings that suggest that this potential relationship can be positive or negative, stronger or weaker, differentiated or non-existent and can vary across and within countries and time periods.

However, fundamental methodological and empirical limitations of analysis do not allow us to make such claims robustly. This is partly because the process of democratisation and changes in levels of equality are highly nuanced, idiosyncratic and heterogeneous and thus difficult to capture econometrically. Some of the most prominent authors in this literature claim that high levels of inequality decrease the likelihood of democratisation, and they also talk about “causal effects” and “the impact of democracy” on outcomes. Such conclusions presuppose a number of very demanding assumptions and requisite premises that cannot be rigorously met.

In fact, thousands of academic papers analyse the potential relationship between political variables like democracy and economic variables like inequality by gathering their data, selecting their methods and then going forward with their analysis, interpreting their findings and potentially informing policy, with many other steps along the way that involve making important implicit methodological assumptions.

My approach (as outlined in this paper) is to instead go backwards to analyse whether the data and methods that are applied by the leading authors in this literature are able to produce the robust results that they claim....

MORE: http://www.lse.ac.uk/philosophy/blog/201...phenomena/
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