6 hours ago
(This post was last modified: 5 hours ago by C C.)
‘The UK has been promoted to Russia’s main opponent’
https://www.thenerve.news/p/russia-war-n...s-prepping
EXCERPT: Carole: One of the things I want to talk about is that, in many ways, the scales have fallen from our eyes. We can see clearly now. We understand what Putin is doing; we can see what is happening in Ukraine. But what I find really interesting is that there are extraordinary things going on across Europe.
There is a build-up happening, and we have had a series of warnings over the last months and weeks – particularly over the last few days – from the heads of European intelligence agencies, from the Polish prime minister, from the French president. They are talking about a significant escalation from Russia which could lead to a confrontation with Nato and trigger an article 5 event.
Would we do what we’re supposed to do – stand together and fight back against Russia? We’re no longer in denial; we can see what’s happening. But the news cycle is not responding to these threats.
Luke: The first thing is to make a conceptual point, a paradigm point: the Kremlin – the Russian political elite – thinks, and has long thought, that it is already at war not just with Ukraine but with what it calls “the collective west”. In other words, we may not wish it to be so, but they think they’re at war with Europe, and in particular the democracies of Europe.
And by the way, they really hate the UK. America used to be the main opponent. Now America is run by someone whose allegiances to Russia we can discuss a bit later on, and the UK has been promoted.
They feel this is a rolling war of good against evil – they’re good and we’re evil – and Putin has long thought like this. That’s why he’s dispatched assassins to this country to kill Russian dissidents. That’s why he’s tried to meddle in British politics. So first of all, the war exists whether we like it or not.
The other thing is the window of opportunity. I think most people probably assume Donald Trump will, in some form, lose the midterm elections, so the Russians have until January, when the new Congress is sworn in, if they want to test article 5 of the Nato treaty, to do something.
And the war is going pretty badly from Putin’s point of view. He gives the impression that victory is inevitable, but in fact it’s been five grinding years and they still haven’t taken the whole of the Donbas region. And Russia’s chances of taking Kyiv and getting rid of Zelenskyy are practically zero.
So if they’re going to do something, it has to be now. I’m pretty convinced they are going to do something. And I think the real test moment will be when Russia, accidentally on purpose, kills EU civilians – two people on the Estonian border, or four people in a farmhouse in Poland, or some people in Moldova. I think we’re quite close to that, and I think clearly European intelligence agencies think that, and are concerned.
Carole: There are really credible voices at the moment saying there are a lot of things lining up right now which look scarily reminiscent of 2022, right before Russia invaded Ukraine. I’ve seen pushback from people saying “we’re not seeing troop movements, so keep your wig on”. But there is talk about a land invasion of Estonia, isn’t there? There are different scenarios: that, or a drone strike on Poland, or something in Britain … Can you talk me through those scenarios?
Luke: There aren’t going to be tanks. It could be water systems; it could be electricity. They’ve been buzzing European airports, naval bases and nuclear facilities, cutting undersea cables in the Baltic, and trying to blow up a Ukrainian plane at Leipzig airport – which they very nearly did, and which could have killed someone.
You have to understand there’s a criminal energy about the Russian regime, and they really don’t care if they kill people collaterally. In fact, I think they rather want that, because it’s a test: how will Nato respond? And just in terms of drones, there was a major drone attack on Poland last summer using decoy drones, about 100 of them, and Nato struggled to shoot down four or five.
And despite all of this – a hyper-aggressive Russia, a psychopathic dictator – I still don’t think most politicians, including in this country, have quite come to grips with the threat. (MORE - missing details)
https://www.thenerve.news/p/russia-war-n...s-prepping
EXCERPT: Carole: One of the things I want to talk about is that, in many ways, the scales have fallen from our eyes. We can see clearly now. We understand what Putin is doing; we can see what is happening in Ukraine. But what I find really interesting is that there are extraordinary things going on across Europe.
There is a build-up happening, and we have had a series of warnings over the last months and weeks – particularly over the last few days – from the heads of European intelligence agencies, from the Polish prime minister, from the French president. They are talking about a significant escalation from Russia which could lead to a confrontation with Nato and trigger an article 5 event.
Would we do what we’re supposed to do – stand together and fight back against Russia? We’re no longer in denial; we can see what’s happening. But the news cycle is not responding to these threats.
Luke: The first thing is to make a conceptual point, a paradigm point: the Kremlin – the Russian political elite – thinks, and has long thought, that it is already at war not just with Ukraine but with what it calls “the collective west”. In other words, we may not wish it to be so, but they think they’re at war with Europe, and in particular the democracies of Europe.
And by the way, they really hate the UK. America used to be the main opponent. Now America is run by someone whose allegiances to Russia we can discuss a bit later on, and the UK has been promoted.
They feel this is a rolling war of good against evil – they’re good and we’re evil – and Putin has long thought like this. That’s why he’s dispatched assassins to this country to kill Russian dissidents. That’s why he’s tried to meddle in British politics. So first of all, the war exists whether we like it or not.
The other thing is the window of opportunity. I think most people probably assume Donald Trump will, in some form, lose the midterm elections, so the Russians have until January, when the new Congress is sworn in, if they want to test article 5 of the Nato treaty, to do something.
And the war is going pretty badly from Putin’s point of view. He gives the impression that victory is inevitable, but in fact it’s been five grinding years and they still haven’t taken the whole of the Donbas region. And Russia’s chances of taking Kyiv and getting rid of Zelenskyy are practically zero.
So if they’re going to do something, it has to be now. I’m pretty convinced they are going to do something. And I think the real test moment will be when Russia, accidentally on purpose, kills EU civilians – two people on the Estonian border, or four people in a farmhouse in Poland, or some people in Moldova. I think we’re quite close to that, and I think clearly European intelligence agencies think that, and are concerned.
Carole: There are really credible voices at the moment saying there are a lot of things lining up right now which look scarily reminiscent of 2022, right before Russia invaded Ukraine. I’ve seen pushback from people saying “we’re not seeing troop movements, so keep your wig on”. But there is talk about a land invasion of Estonia, isn’t there? There are different scenarios: that, or a drone strike on Poland, or something in Britain … Can you talk me through those scenarios?
Luke: There aren’t going to be tanks. It could be water systems; it could be electricity. They’ve been buzzing European airports, naval bases and nuclear facilities, cutting undersea cables in the Baltic, and trying to blow up a Ukrainian plane at Leipzig airport – which they very nearly did, and which could have killed someone.
You have to understand there’s a criminal energy about the Russian regime, and they really don’t care if they kill people collaterally. In fact, I think they rather want that, because it’s a test: how will Nato respond? And just in terms of drones, there was a major drone attack on Poland last summer using decoy drones, about 100 of them, and Nato struggled to shoot down four or five.
And despite all of this – a hyper-aggressive Russia, a psychopathic dictator – I still don’t think most politicians, including in this country, have quite come to grips with the threat. (MORE - missing details)
