Article Reform UK savages Labour in local elections, Starmer doomed to exit

[Yazata]

Thunder clouds are gathering above Kier Starmer. While last night the attitude in No.10 was that Starmer was determined to remain, the tone has changed markedly in the last few hours. Darren Jones, the PM's Chief Secretary who has been assigned to be Starmer's voice to the media, said this to the London Times: "He’s listening to colleagues, and he's talking to colleagues… I can't say what decision he may or may not take. I’m not going to get ahead of the prime minister's decision."

'He's making a decision' is a notable change from 'He's determined to remain.'

[C C]

Thunder clouds are gathering above Kier Starmer. While last night the attitude in No.10 was that Starmer was determined to remain, the tone has changed markedly in the last few hours. Darren Jones, the PM's Chief Secretary who has been assigned to be Starmer's voice to the media, said this to the London Times: "He’s listening to colleagues, and he's talking to colleagues… I can't say what decision he may or may not take. I’m not going to get ahead of the prime minister's decision."

'He's making a decision' is a notable change from 'He's determined to remain.'

They often seem to go through an initial, obstinate phase of denial ("I'm going to stay") before finally accepting their fate. It was similar with Biden, although that was in a "run again for POTUS" context rather than dropping out while still in office. A US president is less vulnerable to a "lack of confidence" party coup than the systems PMs usually abide in. (Nixon was no Trump acrobat.)

[Yazata]

The Daily Mail is reporting that individuals close to Kier Starmer are saying that he's decided to step down, but that he wants the process to be orderly.

Assuming that there's any truth to that, then I can see two general possibilities.

1. Starmer resigns abruptly. That would leave the British government leaderless triggering a battle for leadership in Parliament. Multiple figures would be maneuvering for support among the MPs, factions forming with plenty of back-stabbing.

A problem for Labour is that the choice of leader will probably entail choosing different positions on hot-button issues on the left: mass migration, "gender", feminism, LGBT and the "trans" craziness, Palestine and relations with the Muslim world, British patriotism and identity, relations with Trump's United States and the globalist/socialist EU, Britain's underfunded defense, the serious crime and policing problems, race, religion and multiculturalism, taxes, class, the welfare state, industrial policy and business competitiveness.

Without strong party leadership willing and able to enforce party discipline, whatever position a Labour politician takes on some of these, will almost certainly generate angry opposition from another group of MPs.

2. Starmer remains in office for several months (until September maybe) as he tries to manage his succession. That could produce a zombie government in which lame-duck Starmer is unable to exert the necessary discipline over Parliament as MPs stop heeding him and once again, ambitious figures start maneuvering with their different visions of the future of the party and of Britain itself. Except with Starmer hanging on for months as figure-head, this period of leadership paralysis might last even longer than if he just quit and allowed support to eventually coalesce around somebody else.

In both cases Reform and maybe the Tories too would be calling for new elections, but the only thing that Labour MPs will be able to agree on is avoiding a new general election in which many of them would fear losing their seats.

So if there's any plausibility to this American's-eye-view, then Britain might be about to go from very bad to much worse.

[Syne]

Or the Daily Mail is circulating rumors from replacement hopefuls.