Article Iran's ability to reach Europe fully exposed now? (ballistic network)

[C C]

Of course, the old man who was obstructing that kind of missile range was taken out. Though (at 86) he was bound to have croaked in the not too distant future anyway. And his son Mojtaba is a hardliner: "Mojtaba Khamenei was viewed as someone who 'would put the IRGC fully at the helm of Iranian politics', sidelining spiritual and moderate political leadership."
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Trump proven right on Iran's long-range missile capability as regime targets US-UK base, experts say
https://www.foxnews.com/world/trump-prov...xperts-say

EXCERPTS: The Islamic Republic of Iran significantly escalated its war effort against the U.S. with its launch of two intermediate-range ballistic missiles on Friday toward Diego Garcia, a key U.S.-U.K. military base in the Indian Ocean.

The targeting of Diego Garcia, roughly 2,500 miles from Iran, means Tehran’s missile capabilities appear to have exceeded previously acknowledged limits.

[...] "I think it's a message that the IRGC is in charge in Iran after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death," Brodsky said. "When Khamenei was alive, he limited the range of Iran's missile program to 2,000 kilometers. Khamenei recounted in 2018 how he had rejected overtures from IRGC commanders seeking to increase the range to as much as 5,000 kilometers.

"But now that he has died, those voices in the IRGC seeking to increase the range are likely driving the agenda. The launch of the missiles was likely meant as a signal of the IRGC's capabilities to threaten U.S. allies beyond the Middle East. For example, this threatens Europe."

The two long-range Iranian missiles did not hit the base, but the attempted attack marked a significant expansion of Iran’s reach beyond the Middle East and toward a major U.S. strategic hub. One missile reportedly failed in flight, while a U.S. warship launched an SM-3 interceptor at the other, officials said. It was not immediately clear whether the interception was successful. The remote base is a critical launch point for U.S. bombers, nuclear submarines and other strategic assets.

Ilan Berman, vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, D.C., told Fox News Digital, "The launch hammers home the president’s point about Iran being an imminent threat. It’s easy for casual observers to ignore, but the increasing maturity of Iran’s strategic programs, plural, has been exponentially expanding the threat that the Islamic Republic poses beyond the Middle East.

"That is what Epic Fury is seeking to address. The administration believes, absolutely correctly in my view, that these types of capabilities cannot be left in the hands of a radical, predatory regime... (MORE - missing details)

[Syne]

You don't suddenly have IRBMs just because the ayatollah died. They obviously had been developing these, and with the intent to use them. Khamenei had just been lying.

[Zinjanthropos]

Something doesn’t sound right…… IRGC can keep ICBM ownership news locked up yet can’t keep Khomeini et al whereabouts secret. You’d think the new IRGC command deliberately let the old guard (no pun intended) be eliminated before releasing surprises. Sounds like they’re in it to win it.

[Syne]

Something doesn’t sound right…… IRGC can keep ICBM ownership news locked up yet can’t keep Khomeini et al whereabouts secret. You’d think the new IRGC command deliberately let the old guard (no pun intended) be eliminated before releasing surprises. Sounds like they’re in it to win it.

Probably depends on where Israel has agents and assets within the regime. Probably upper leadership whereabouts and movement was the priority. We didn't seem to have much exact info on their remaining weapons stockpiles, enriched uranium, etc.. So I assume a couple of medium range missiles would fall into that category.

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In a phone conversation with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday condemned attacks on critical infrastructure in West Asia and called for keeping the critical shipping lanes “open and secure” amid major disruption in global energy supplies in view of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Pezeshkian conveyed to Modi that India, as the current chair of BRICS, can leverage its “independent role” in halting the “aggressions” against Iran and safeguarding peace and stability in the region.
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- https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/new...770002.ece

That's rich. Iran calling to safeguard "peace and stability in the region."

[Yazata]

Something doesn’t sound right…… IRGC can keep ICBM ownership news locked up yet can’t keep Khomeini et al whereabouts secret.

I've seen speculation about that (nothing but speculation). Iran was known to have a relatively small space program that had successfully launched several satellites. Small satellite launching rockets are kind of dual-use and it wouldn't be all that hard to hide a ballistic missile program inside an ostensibly civilian space program.

That's probably why we bombed Iran's space research center in Tehran, because it was believed to be up to its eyeballs in ballistic missile development.

You’d think the new IRGC command deliberately let the old guard (no pun intended) be eliminated before releasing surprises. Sounds like they’re in it to win it.

I think that moderates and hard-liners have been competing inside the Iranian government for years. And the IRGC hard-line faction has always been on top. I don't think that the late elder Khomeini should be portrayed as a moderate either. Whenever he had to choose, he sided with the IRGC. They pretty clearly were in charge when it came to using armed force to put down the recent demonstrations killing some 30,000 young Iranians. They are probably the ones who drew the unacceptable red lines (no limits on uranium enrichment etc.) in negotiations with Trump's people before the war.

Now that open warfare has broken out and the upper levels of the Iranian government organizational chart has been eliminated by the Israelis mostly, I'd guess that the IRGC command structure is just about the only national level organization that they have left. So in that sense, the war has put the hard-liners even more solidly in control.

The moderates are probably more concentrated on the streets among the people, perhaps with some support here and there from local police forces and some elements in the regular military rank-and-file and the lower level officer ranks.

The Iranian regular military has always been a little estranged from the militant theological leadership. The military's loyalty is more to Iran the country, than it is to the mullahs. That's why the IRGC was created in the first place, because the mullahs never entirely trusted the military's loyalty after the Islamic revolution.

[Yazata]

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