Jan 7, 2026 10:35 PM
Colton Jebb: "What is causing trepidation among oil companies is that Trump will not be around for the whole decade or more required. And there's hardly confidence that Vance would win three years from now. They may invest billions to rebuild Venezuela's oil industry, only to have a guilt-ridden Democrat president piss it all away at the ledge of some yawning canyon on a moonlit night. In a redemption gesture that restores the same corrupt socialist party to power that allowed everything to crumble and turned the country into a hillbilly shack. The Venezuelan economy was already in shambles when Bernie Sanders was praising Chávez's regime back in 2011."
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Venezuela After Maduro: The Economic and Political Implications of Regime Change
https://europeanbusinessmagazine.com/bus...me-change/
EXCEPTS: Reality is far more complicated than Trump’s optimistic framing suggests. Venezuela’s oil is predominantly heavy, sour crude that requires specialised equipment and advanced refining capacity—much of which has deteriorated after years of underinvestment. International oil companies were expelled or nationalised in the early 2000s, and producers have not forgotten being kicked out of Venezuela when the country expropriated foreign assets.
The investment required to restore production is staggering. Analysts estimate it would take decades of investment and billions of dollars to meaningfully increase output. Infrastructure is crumbling, skilled labour has emigrated, and the legal framework for foreign investment remains uncertain. The country’s refineries, pipelines and export terminals all require extensive rehabilitation.
[...] The longer-term question is whether the world needs Venezuelan oil at all. Until recently, the consensus was that global oil demand would peak within four years due to electric vehicles and climate policies. But as the US, China and Canada weaken climate policies and EV sales slow, the prospect of investing in Venezuela has become more attractive.
For European businesses watching from afar, Venezuela’s oil sector presents a case study in geopolitical risk and resource nationalism. The scramble for energy security that has defined Europe’s strategic response to recent shocks makes Venezuelan oil theoretically valuable—but only if political stability can be assured.
[...] f Venezuela stabilises, the potential returns are substantial—but so are the risks. Several sectors stand to benefit from reconstruction efforts:
Energy infrastructure: Rebuilding Venezuela’s oil industry will require massive capital investment in refineries, pipelines, extraction technology and export facilities. US oil companies including ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, which were forced out in the 2000s, may seek to return. Chevron, currently the only major US firm operating in the country, is positioned to expand operations significantly.
Construction and engineering: Venezuela’s infrastructure—roads, bridges, ports, electricity grids—has deteriorated dramatically. International contractors with experience in post-conflict reconstruction could find lucrative opportunities, though security concerns will remain paramount.
Financial services: Venezuela’s banking system has been hollowed out by hyperinflation and capital flight. The country launched a new currency in 2021, dropping six zeros from its bolivar notes, but rebuilding trust in financial institutions will require comprehensive reform. European banks expanding into Latin America may see opportunities in trade finance and corporate lending.
Consumer goods and retail: With GDP having collapsed by 73 per cent and basic goods scarce for years, pent-up demand for everything from food to electronics could drive a consumption boom if incomes recover. However, purchasing power will remain constrained until the labour market stabilises.
Mining and minerals: Beyond oil, Venezuela has significant deposits of gold, iron ore, bauxite and rare earth elements. These have been largely undeveloped or controlled by criminal networks during the Maduro era. A stable government could attract mining investment, though environmental and social governance standards will be crucial.
The caveat to all of this is political risk. Venezuela’s legal system is weak, property rights are poorly defined, and the risk of future expropriation cannot be dismissed. US oil companies have not forgotten being kicked out in the early 2000s, and any investor entering Venezuela must weigh the potential returns against the possibility of another populist backlash in a decade or two.
For European firms evaluating emerging market opportunities, Venezuela presents a classic risk-reward calculation. The upside is substantial but highly contingent on factors—political stability, legal reform, security—that remain deeply uncertain... (MORE - missing details)
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
Venezuela After Maduro: The Economic and Political Implications of Regime Change
https://europeanbusinessmagazine.com/bus...me-change/
EXCEPTS: Reality is far more complicated than Trump’s optimistic framing suggests. Venezuela’s oil is predominantly heavy, sour crude that requires specialised equipment and advanced refining capacity—much of which has deteriorated after years of underinvestment. International oil companies were expelled or nationalised in the early 2000s, and producers have not forgotten being kicked out of Venezuela when the country expropriated foreign assets.
The investment required to restore production is staggering. Analysts estimate it would take decades of investment and billions of dollars to meaningfully increase output. Infrastructure is crumbling, skilled labour has emigrated, and the legal framework for foreign investment remains uncertain. The country’s refineries, pipelines and export terminals all require extensive rehabilitation.
[...] The longer-term question is whether the world needs Venezuelan oil at all. Until recently, the consensus was that global oil demand would peak within four years due to electric vehicles and climate policies. But as the US, China and Canada weaken climate policies and EV sales slow, the prospect of investing in Venezuela has become more attractive.
For European businesses watching from afar, Venezuela’s oil sector presents a case study in geopolitical risk and resource nationalism. The scramble for energy security that has defined Europe’s strategic response to recent shocks makes Venezuelan oil theoretically valuable—but only if political stability can be assured.
[...] f Venezuela stabilises, the potential returns are substantial—but so are the risks. Several sectors stand to benefit from reconstruction efforts:
Energy infrastructure: Rebuilding Venezuela’s oil industry will require massive capital investment in refineries, pipelines, extraction technology and export facilities. US oil companies including ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, which were forced out in the 2000s, may seek to return. Chevron, currently the only major US firm operating in the country, is positioned to expand operations significantly.
Construction and engineering: Venezuela’s infrastructure—roads, bridges, ports, electricity grids—has deteriorated dramatically. International contractors with experience in post-conflict reconstruction could find lucrative opportunities, though security concerns will remain paramount.
Financial services: Venezuela’s banking system has been hollowed out by hyperinflation and capital flight. The country launched a new currency in 2021, dropping six zeros from its bolivar notes, but rebuilding trust in financial institutions will require comprehensive reform. European banks expanding into Latin America may see opportunities in trade finance and corporate lending.
Consumer goods and retail: With GDP having collapsed by 73 per cent and basic goods scarce for years, pent-up demand for everything from food to electronics could drive a consumption boom if incomes recover. However, purchasing power will remain constrained until the labour market stabilises.
Mining and minerals: Beyond oil, Venezuela has significant deposits of gold, iron ore, bauxite and rare earth elements. These have been largely undeveloped or controlled by criminal networks during the Maduro era. A stable government could attract mining investment, though environmental and social governance standards will be crucial.
The caveat to all of this is political risk. Venezuela’s legal system is weak, property rights are poorly defined, and the risk of future expropriation cannot be dismissed. US oil companies have not forgotten being kicked out in the early 2000s, and any investor entering Venezuela must weigh the potential returns against the possibility of another populist backlash in a decade or two.
For European firms evaluating emerging market opportunities, Venezuela presents a classic risk-reward calculation. The upside is substantial but highly contingent on factors—political stability, legal reform, security—that remain deeply uncertain... (MORE - missing details)