Nov 10, 2025 11:13 PM
(This post was last modified: Nov 10, 2025 11:14 PM by C C.)
https://www.skeptic.com/article/transgen...-americans
EXCERPTS: A few weeks ago, I published results from six waves of the massive Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) annual survey of undergraduate students. The data were unequivocal: the share of students identifying as a gender other than male or female—that is, as non-binary—peaked in 2023 and has halved in the two years since. This is a stunning reversal in the culture that will reverberate through society and politics in the coming years.
[...] Why is the trans curve bending downward? Are young people becoming more conservative and religious? No. The same FIRE student surveys that show non-binary gender and queer sexuality dropping like a stone find no shift to the political right over time, and no rise in the share affiliating with a religion. Students are also no more supportive of free speech, and no more opposed to shouting down speakers, than they were in 2020. They are as woke as ever, just less trans and queer.
The rise and fall pattern for gender non-conformity took place on both red and blue state campuses. Not only that, but the rise and fall pattern for gender non-conformity took place on both red and blue state campuses, among both liberal and conservative students, albeit from different baselines. At ultra-liberal Oberlin College, for example, the share of students identifying as non-binary plunged 20 points between 2023 and 2025. On Ivy League campuses, the collapse was more pronounced than it was among students at less prestigious institutions.
Could a decline in mental health issues explain the decline of trans identification? There is evidence that student mental health improved substantially between 2023 (when five mental health questions were first introduced in the FIRE data) and 2025. The share who said they were anxious most or all of the time declined from 38 to 28 percent while the proportion who said they were depressed fell from 17 to 10 percent.
The CDC finds an improvement in mental health among high school students between 2021 and 2023, the latest data point. Statistical analysis shows that better mental health helps to explain only part of the decline in non-binary gender identification.
Most of the change in gender identification is not accounted for by better mental health, with mental health issues also declining among non-binary students. Instead, it seems to largely be an independent youth fashion that operates on a plane that is separate from politics and mental health.
Faced with mounting evidence that trans is in decline, some progressive and transactivist writers have shifted to arguing that Republican attacks on their movement have pushed trans people back into the closet. However, the FIRE data shows that non-binary students self-censor their opinions less than other students, and feel as free as anyone else to voice their views on transgender issues, with no change after Donald Trump took office for the second time.
Accounting for the political views of non-binary students and their peers, there is no evidence that the speech climate for non-binary students worsened on red state campuses more than blue state campuses after 2024. This is not about trans people going back into the closet... (MORE - details)
EXCERPTS: A few weeks ago, I published results from six waves of the massive Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) annual survey of undergraduate students. The data were unequivocal: the share of students identifying as a gender other than male or female—that is, as non-binary—peaked in 2023 and has halved in the two years since. This is a stunning reversal in the culture that will reverberate through society and politics in the coming years.
[...] Why is the trans curve bending downward? Are young people becoming more conservative and religious? No. The same FIRE student surveys that show non-binary gender and queer sexuality dropping like a stone find no shift to the political right over time, and no rise in the share affiliating with a religion. Students are also no more supportive of free speech, and no more opposed to shouting down speakers, than they were in 2020. They are as woke as ever, just less trans and queer.
The rise and fall pattern for gender non-conformity took place on both red and blue state campuses. Not only that, but the rise and fall pattern for gender non-conformity took place on both red and blue state campuses, among both liberal and conservative students, albeit from different baselines. At ultra-liberal Oberlin College, for example, the share of students identifying as non-binary plunged 20 points between 2023 and 2025. On Ivy League campuses, the collapse was more pronounced than it was among students at less prestigious institutions.
Could a decline in mental health issues explain the decline of trans identification? There is evidence that student mental health improved substantially between 2023 (when five mental health questions were first introduced in the FIRE data) and 2025. The share who said they were anxious most or all of the time declined from 38 to 28 percent while the proportion who said they were depressed fell from 17 to 10 percent.
The CDC finds an improvement in mental health among high school students between 2021 and 2023, the latest data point. Statistical analysis shows that better mental health helps to explain only part of the decline in non-binary gender identification.
Most of the change in gender identification is not accounted for by better mental health, with mental health issues also declining among non-binary students. Instead, it seems to largely be an independent youth fashion that operates on a plane that is separate from politics and mental health.
Faced with mounting evidence that trans is in decline, some progressive and transactivist writers have shifted to arguing that Republican attacks on their movement have pushed trans people back into the closet. However, the FIRE data shows that non-binary students self-censor their opinions less than other students, and feel as free as anyone else to voice their views on transgender issues, with no change after Donald Trump took office for the second time.
Accounting for the political views of non-binary students and their peers, there is no evidence that the speech climate for non-binary students worsened on red state campuses more than blue state campuses after 2024. This is not about trans people going back into the closet... (MORE - details)
