Jul 6, 2025 12:21 AM
As Sir Keir Starmer marks his first anniversary, voters have issued their verdict. And for many, it’s a resounding F for Fail
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2025/07/as...-for-fail/
EXCERPTS: As Labour limps to the end of its first year in office, the marks are in and the verdict is brutal. My latest poll finds that based on what they have seen so far, nearly four in ten voters would give Keir Starmer an F for “fail”. Among the rest, the average grade is a C–. Even Labour voters can only bring themselves to award a C+.
It’s not just that many disapprove of the government’s agenda. Half the electorate, including nearly as many 2024 Labour voters, say they don’t understand what it is.
[...] A series of U-turns – a feature of Starmer’s administration since the early days, but now so abundant it’s hard to keep up with them – has only added to the sense of incoherence and confusion. Broken promises to the “Waspi women”; Sue Gray’s brief tenure as Number 10 chief of staff; reversals on winter fuel, the grooming gangs inquiry, and whether excessive immigration is or is not turning Britain into an “island of strangers” – these combine to show a government with little sense of direction. Starmer’s colossal turnaround on welfare reform compounds the damage, for three crucial reasons – both political and practical.
First, even at its most moderate, the Labour party has never fully shaken voters’ suspicions that it is too soft on welfare and can’t be trusted with taxpayers’ money. The backbench rebellion and the government’s retreat in the face of it show these doubts to be well founded.
Second, Starmer’s climbdowns will cost real money: some £4.5 billion, according to ministers’ own figures. That means (even) higher taxes or (even) more borrowing, or probably both, at a time when Britain needs neither. It also makes it harder to hit the new NATO target of spending 5 per cent of GDP on defence within 10 years – a policy which most voters support, as does (so he currently says) the prime minister.
Third, while an occasional pivot can show a government that listens and learns, a succession of them erodes confidence and credibility. “We need somebody strong at the head of our country to go head-to-head with Trump, but he can’t even keep control of his own party,” as a woman put it in one of my recent focus groups. “What’s he going to do on other policies?” asked another. “When he makes hard decisions and gets challenged, he just seems to flip.” In a dangerous world, people want a leader they can rely on.
Despite all this, a fair but dwindling chunk of voters still gives Labour the benefit of the doubt. [...] If the government lacks a sense of purpose, many feel the same is just as true for the Conservatives. More are starting to notice Kemi Badenoch, and to like what they see.
[...] Nigel Farage tops the grade table for the year – the only leader to get an A from his own voters, and a B overall. He has picked up the extra marks by being visible, getting people talking, articulating people’s frustration and turning it into local election votes. People see that his party is branching out beyond immigration to talk about energy, industry, welfare, policing and more... (MORE - missing details)
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2025/07/as...-for-fail/
EXCERPTS: As Labour limps to the end of its first year in office, the marks are in and the verdict is brutal. My latest poll finds that based on what they have seen so far, nearly four in ten voters would give Keir Starmer an F for “fail”. Among the rest, the average grade is a C–. Even Labour voters can only bring themselves to award a C+.
It’s not just that many disapprove of the government’s agenda. Half the electorate, including nearly as many 2024 Labour voters, say they don’t understand what it is.
[...] A series of U-turns – a feature of Starmer’s administration since the early days, but now so abundant it’s hard to keep up with them – has only added to the sense of incoherence and confusion. Broken promises to the “Waspi women”; Sue Gray’s brief tenure as Number 10 chief of staff; reversals on winter fuel, the grooming gangs inquiry, and whether excessive immigration is or is not turning Britain into an “island of strangers” – these combine to show a government with little sense of direction. Starmer’s colossal turnaround on welfare reform compounds the damage, for three crucial reasons – both political and practical.
First, even at its most moderate, the Labour party has never fully shaken voters’ suspicions that it is too soft on welfare and can’t be trusted with taxpayers’ money. The backbench rebellion and the government’s retreat in the face of it show these doubts to be well founded.
Second, Starmer’s climbdowns will cost real money: some £4.5 billion, according to ministers’ own figures. That means (even) higher taxes or (even) more borrowing, or probably both, at a time when Britain needs neither. It also makes it harder to hit the new NATO target of spending 5 per cent of GDP on defence within 10 years – a policy which most voters support, as does (so he currently says) the prime minister.
Third, while an occasional pivot can show a government that listens and learns, a succession of them erodes confidence and credibility. “We need somebody strong at the head of our country to go head-to-head with Trump, but he can’t even keep control of his own party,” as a woman put it in one of my recent focus groups. “What’s he going to do on other policies?” asked another. “When he makes hard decisions and gets challenged, he just seems to flip.” In a dangerous world, people want a leader they can rely on.
Despite all this, a fair but dwindling chunk of voters still gives Labour the benefit of the doubt. [...] If the government lacks a sense of purpose, many feel the same is just as true for the Conservatives. More are starting to notice Kemi Badenoch, and to like what they see.
[...] Nigel Farage tops the grade table for the year – the only leader to get an A from his own voters, and a B overall. He has picked up the extra marks by being visible, getting people talking, articulating people’s frustration and turning it into local election votes. People see that his party is branching out beyond immigration to talk about energy, industry, welfare, policing and more... (MORE - missing details)