Article DIY: if the EU coalition is willing, Ukraine has a chance of defying the odds

[C C]

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/edi...38844.html

EXCERPTS: The latest massive, deadly attack carried out by Russia on civilian targets in Kyiv is a timely reminder that this conflict – and its eventual resolution – is not just about territory and lines on a map. It cannot be, in other words, some Trump Organisation real estate project writ large...

[...] The Trump peace plan, now leaked, carries with it the unspoken but lethal notion that various tracts of Ukraine can be transferred to Kremlin control with few ill effects for the inhabitants, and that those driven out as their homes were smashed and whole cities flattened can just return in safety or start again elsewhere. It is heartless beyond words.

The Ukrainian people are being treated as if they need not have a say in the matter – and if their democratically elected leader so much as questions Donald Trump’s “deal”, he is mocked, bullied and vilified, while there are invariably only warm words and endless concessions to Russia. The indulgence of the Kremlin by America is as incomprehensible as it is obscene, and the world knows it.

[...] Vladimir Putin is not interested in peace. He ... holds the American proposal for a ceasefire in utter contempt. As Volodymyr Zelensky points out, it is now some 44 days since Ukraine agreed to Donald Trump’s call for a full ceasefire and a halt to strikes. And for each of those 44 days, the Russians have been continuing to take the lives of innocents.

It is not, as President Trump claims, President Zelensky who is responsible for these “killing fields”, but the man who he clearly counts as a friend and ally: President Putin...

[...] There are, in other words, no consequences for Russia if it continues to commit war crimes, kidnap children, allows its troops to rape, maim, murder and plunder their way through occupied lands, and advances further into sovereign Ukrainian territory. President Trump says he’s “not happy” about the latest bombings, and that they are “unnecessary”, as if mildly chastising a badly behaved guest at Mar-a-Lago.

That is not going to be taken seriously by Putin, because the Trump plan continues to reward Putin for his aggression....

[...] It is certainly easy to be pessimistic. Ukraine would struggle without US military supplies and financial support, and Elon Musk said that Ukraine’s resistance would collapse if the Starlink satellite system controlled by him was shut off.

[...] Yet ... Mr Zelensky and Ukraine have been written off before and survived far longer than the few days or weeks they were previously given. Ukraine’s own military-industrial base and expertise in modern drone warfare has also been transformed...

[...] Europe, with loyal allies such as Canada and Japan, has enormous industrial, technological and financial resources at its disposal – and there is no reason in principle why it cannot bolster Ukrainian resistance. Of course, Mr Trump could regard such actions as unfriendly to the United States, but given the way his trade wars have weakened the superpower, he might not want to start a cold war with his remaining nominal allies.

[...] If Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron, ad hoc leaders of this ad hoc alliance, manage to inspire their allies half as much as Mr Zelensky has, then Ukraine still has a chance of defying the odds.

It might not win Crimea back in the near future, but it would mean that President Putin would be forced to negotiate a more satisfactory and sustainable peace, after which Ukraine can build its defences and deepen its newly strengthened partnerships, at least until the Trump-Putin era passes... (MORE - missing details)

[Syne]

Europe, with loyal allies such as Canada and Japan, has enormous industrial, technological and financial resources at its disposal – and there is no reason in principle why it cannot bolster Ukrainian resistance.

If they haven't all this time, when?

[Magical Realist]

Europe, with loyal allies such as Canada and Japan, has enormous industrial, technological and financial resources at its disposal – and there is no reason in principle why it cannot bolster Ukrainian resistance.

If they haven't all this time, when?

Until now Ukraine was largely dependent on the US for military support and funds.That's why there has been no support from the EU. Now that America has turned its back on them, we see the EU stepping up...

"Ukraine said on Thursday it had received a first batch of French Mirage 2000 fighter jets as well as U.S.-made F-16 fighters from the Netherlands as European allies seek to strengthen Kyiv's hand in its war with Russia.

When Russia launched its full-scale invasion three years ago, Ukraine had only a largely outdated air force inherited from the Soviet Union when it broke up in 1991.

Now facing Russian advances in the east and long-range air strikes, Ukraine has repeatedly pressed Western allies to supply it with increasingly advanced arms and ammunition including armoured vehicles, tanks, long-range missiles and F-16 fighters.

Mirage 2000s are the latest sophisticated jets Ukraine has received from allies after the first F-16s arrived last summer, marking a military milestone for the country.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy praised France and the Netherlands for their commitment to helping modernise Ukraine's air force.

"These modern combat aircraft have already arrived in Ukraine and will soon begin carrying out combat missions, strengthening our defence and enhancing our ability to effectively counter Russian aggression," Defence Minister Rustem Umerov said.

[Syne]

So.. on their doorstep, but as long as the US is footing the bill...

...and the US should have abandoned Ukraine much earlier.

Got it.

[Magical Realist]

So.. on their doorstep, but as long as the US is footing the bill...

How is US footing the bill? The jets are being provided by France.

...and the US should have abandoned Ukraine much earlier.

Yeah..we know where you stand. "Go Russia!" You have the moral spine of a jellyfish.

[Syne]

So.. on their doorstep, but as long as the US is footing the bill...

How is US footing the bill? The jets are being provided by France.

Until now Ukraine was largely dependent on the US for military support and funds.

9_9

...and the US should have abandoned Ukraine much earlier.

Yeah..we know where you stand. "Go Russia!" You have the moral spine of a jellyfish.

You obviously don't.

[Magical Realist]

9_9

Do you even know the meaning of the phrase "until now"?

[Syne]

i know the question "why not earlier?"

[Yazata]

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/edi...38844.html

[...] The Trump peace plan, now leaked, carries with it the unspoken but lethal notion that various tracts of Ukraine can be transferred to Kremlin control with few ill effects for the inhabitants, and that those driven out as their homes were smashed and whole cities flattened can just return in safety or start again elsewhere. It is heartless beyond words.

The London "Independent" (it's anything but) forgets that the "various tracts" of Ukraine in question are already in "kremlin control". Certainly the war has been very disruptive to those residents who live near the front in cities like Bakhmut. Continuing the war indefinitely into the future won't help them. Ending the fighting and allowing rebuilding and a return to normal life will.

[...] Vladimir Putin is not interested in peace. He ... holds the American proposal for a ceasefire in utter contempt.

So does the London "Independent" apparently. Nevertheless, the American attempts to negotiate a ceasefire remains the only attempt to end the slaughterhouse so far. I don't recall the Biden administration, the United Kingdom or the European Union making any attempt to put an end to it. All they seem capable of doing is incessantly criticizing the only country actually working for peace.

[...] There are, in other words, no consequences for Russia...

If the war continues, thousands of young Russian soldiers are killed and maimed every month. Besides the humanitarian cost, caring for those crippled by the war will be a huge burden on the Russian state. And the Russian people's support for the war will inevitably weaken, potentially threatening Putin's regime. The Russian army loses military equipment at a rate that can't easily be replenished, so the longer the war continues the weaker Russia becomes in conventional military terms. Then there's the economic cost...

That is not going to be taken seriously by Putin, because the Trump plan continues to reward Putin for his aggression....

That doesn't make sense. Russia will only agree to a deal if there's something in it for them. Same for Ukraine. Ending the human, military and economic cost of the war should appeal to both sides. Especially Ukraine which is a smaller country that feels the damage even more than Russia.

[...] It is certainly easy to be pessimistic. Ukraine would struggle without US military supplies and financial support

Yes. There's considerable question whether they could continue their war effort without the United States. They certainly couldn't ever realize their unrealistic maximalist goals, which seem to be to crush and humiliate the Russian military and evict them from all territory that Kyiv claims.

[...] Yet ... Mr Zelensky and Ukraine have been written off before and survived far longer than the few days or weeks they were previously given. Ukraine’s own military-industrial base and expertise in modern drone warfare has also been transformed...

Ukraine has certainly punched above its weight and performed a lot better than anyone expected. So well in fact that Russia's maximalist goals, defeating the Ukrainian army and regime change in Kyiv, might be as unrealistic as Ukraine's (and the Independent's) very different fantasies.

The way forward can't be indulging one side's fantasies if there's no plausible way of realizing them and huge cost in trying.

[...] Europe, with loyal allies such as Canada and Japan, has enormous industrial, technological and financial resources at its disposal – and there is no reason in principle why it cannot bolster Ukrainian resistance. Of course, Mr Trump could regard such actions as unfriendly to the United States, but given the way his trade wars have weakened the superpower, he might not want to start a cold war with his remaining nominal allies.

I'm not sure how realistic it is to include Japan. Japan has serious security challenges there in east Asia and no desire to get sucked into a never ending European war. In fact, it's currently against Japanese law to export military goods, though they are thinking of changing that. Given the geopolitical realities, Japan would probably be far more interested in exporting arms to Taiwan than to Ukraine.

Europe certainly has the combined population, GDP, technology and industry to once again be a global superpower, even if collectively. And that's precisely what the United States wants, Europe to finally become our equal and not just a collection of protectorates and client states. The US has been pushing for that for years, but Europe acts like its a threat to the "post-war order" and prefers to direct their resources to their welfare states while outsourcing their defense to the US at American expense.

But Europe becoming strong again would require a radical new political commitment to rebuilding their military and industrial strength. And most important to this discussion, it will take time - ten years at least. So it's not going to help Ukraine.

[...] If Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron, ad hoc leaders of this ad hoc alliance, manage to inspire their allies half as much as Mr Zelensky has, then Ukraine still has a chance of defying the odds.

And accomplishing what? Defeating the Russian army so that Russia essentially surrenders to Ukraine? How do Starmer and Macron propose to do that?

Simply by supplying arms? Given the small size of their current arms industries, they wouldn't even be able to match what the US is supplying now. At best, all that would do is keep the war going indefinitely into the future as it is now. (Even with the US fighting a proxy war, the front line in Ukraine has hardly moved in the last two years as countless young men on both sides died.)

Do either France or Britain really propose to send their own troops to fight alongside Ukraine in a land war against Russia? A very bloody high intensity land war? What will happen politically at home when thousands of coffins and maimed soldiers start returning?

If France and Britain did that, their forces would either be successful or not. If not, the war simply continues indefinitely into the future with lots of Ukrainian, British and French casualties. If they are successful and punch through the Russian lines and throw the Russian army into confusion, what will London and Paris do when Russia predictably hits their troop concentrations in Ukraine with tactical nuclear weapons? Trust that the US will reply suicidally against the Russians with nukes of its own? (Not going to happen. We are just a "nominal ally", remember?) Or would Britain and France break out their own nuclear weapons and risk losing London and Paris?

[confused2]

Seeing Trump and Zelensky sitting together in a church .. that's weird. Trump treats Zelensky like a child .. but not just any child .. like a son. Trump is the best hope for Zelensky so 'Europe' (and Zelensky) need to be careful not to foul up that relationship.