Article POTUS race is over: The fat lady (Lichtman) sings

[C C]

It will be an avalanche. Nostradamus (Allan Lichtman) has officially predicted KH will win, a choice from him which should engender zero astonishment for people not dwelling under a flipped table lying just outside an abandoned shack in the woods.  

Shockwaves? (Apparently part of the original headline before they maybe changed it.) "Shockwaves" is as absurdly exaggerated as the legacy media feigning wonder at Taylor Swift selecting KH. Or maybe in Lichtman's case, it reflects that they didn't have confidence themselves, before his announcement, that she would win.

Bottom line is that you only get to catch the establishment by surprise once (2016), and after that the collective might of journalism, entertainment industry, the academic world, progressive business community, and the sitting bureaucracy have your number. GOP voters should have selected someone else in the primaries: "Well, they won't let Trump be president again. So vote for me."

Allan Lichtman's election 2024 prediction of Harris sent shockwaves
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/poli...348592007/

[Syne]

According to his own "13 keys," he's missed the mark on several.

[Syne]

So what will all these doomsayers say if Harris loses? Miracle? Establishment overconfidence?
How will they justify their current conspiratorial streak after the fact?

I count a minimum of 5 keys his prediction gets entirely wrong.

[C C]

[...] I count a minimum of 5 keys his prediction gets entirely wrong.

One can infer that he is partially going against his "formula" this time around, because earlier he panicked over the Dems removing Biden. And now he's all good with Kamala because ultimately he's a team player. Like two-thirds or four-fifths of everybody comprising the establishment.[1] 

2024 presidential election: In the run-up to the 2024 presidential election, amid widening calls by Democratic Party representatives, members, voters, and supporters for incumbent president Joe Biden to withdraw from the race in favor of another candidate with "better chances", Lichtman called that demand a "foolish, destructive escapade", accusing "pundits and the media" of "pushing" Democrats into a losing choice. He added that "all" those calling for Biden's resignation have "zero track record" of predicting election outcomes. On July 21, 2024, Biden announced he was withdrawing from the race but would serve the remainder of his term. Vice President Kamala Harris was nominated as the Democratic presidential candidate the next month. On September 5, Lichtman predicted that Harris will win the election.

- - - footnote - - -

[1] Do 97 percent of journalist donations go to Democrats?: Ballotpedia reviewed three other analyses of contributions from donors identified as journalists and found that a majority of the donors or a majority of the donations (depending on the study) benefited Democrats or liberal causes.

New York Times on Hollywood bias: Polling data on actors’ political views are hard to come by. But there’s evidence beyond award-show behavior and Instagram feeds to suggest that the stereotype of the liberal actor squares with reality. For example, where Hillary Clinton received three votes for every one that went to Donald Trump in Los Angeles County as a whole, actor-heavy areas like the Hollywood Hills recorded even more-lopsided tallies. Likewise, the Center for Responsive Politics reports that individuals and firms in the television, movie and music industries gave $84 million in campaign contributions during the 2016 election cycle, with 80 percent going to Democrats.

Political views of American academics: A 2014 study found that "by 2006 ... the ratio of Democrats to Republicans had climbed to more than 11:1.

[Syne]

I guess he's willing to risk his prognosticating record.

[Yazata]

CC seems to be trying mightily to pull defeat out of the jaws of victory.

She may be right, but it's looking like a toss-up right now. If we exclude some outlier polls (some showing Trump ahead, others Kamala), the candidates appear to be effectively tied right now in the popular vote.

(Assuming that we take the polls seriously and discount their inherent left-bias.)

But what counts isn't the popular vote, but rather the electoral college. (US presidential elections are actually 50 different state elections).

Right now, Trump is leading in all the states he won in 2020, plus Arizona and Georgia. So all he needs to go over the top in the electoral college is one more reasonably large state. Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennnsylvania could all do it.

The wildcard is election fraud. We all know that if they sense that they are losing, the democrats will turn their election fraud machine up to 11.