Jul 11, 2024 02:43 AM
https://youtu.be/XkIv5PtQM6c
VIDEO EXCERPTS: Today's entry is what happens to China when Xi Jinping dies.
[...] XI has imprisoned and executed his way into being a cult of personality. There is no potential successor, there is no up-and-coming cadre of people with talent. He has basically purged the entire system of anyone who had ambition or competence. So it is just him.
[...] So it is just Xi, it is Xi alone, and he will ride this system into the ground. It's so much worse than that sounds, because China is not a normal country. There are different sorts of governing systems [conflicting with each other]...
[...] XI himself is not a spring chicken. I mean, he's not like Biden or Trump old, but the dude can't be around for much longer, and there's no one in the wings waiting to take over.
So when this breaks, you take the most hyper-centralized iteration of China we have ever had, and you cut off the head at a time when the country is facing financial over-extension and a demographic collapse...
When XI dies -- however that happens -- there will not be another government of China. We will be facing state dissolution. And because the demographic situation is so bad, it's entirely feasible that we have a collapse in the country's ability to generate any economic activity of note. Before such time as something can theoretically rise on the other side of this.
So we probably are looking at the end of the Han ethnicity as a player in international affairs. Because when we get to the end of this century, there aren't going to be a lot of them left. So when XI goes, that's it -- the party's over...
Peter Zeihan: "China After Xi"
https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/XkIv5PtQM6c
VIDEO EXCERPTS: Today's entry is what happens to China when Xi Jinping dies.
[...] XI has imprisoned and executed his way into being a cult of personality. There is no potential successor, there is no up-and-coming cadre of people with talent. He has basically purged the entire system of anyone who had ambition or competence. So it is just him.
[...] So it is just Xi, it is Xi alone, and he will ride this system into the ground. It's so much worse than that sounds, because China is not a normal country. There are different sorts of governing systems [conflicting with each other]...
[...] XI himself is not a spring chicken. I mean, he's not like Biden or Trump old, but the dude can't be around for much longer, and there's no one in the wings waiting to take over.
So when this breaks, you take the most hyper-centralized iteration of China we have ever had, and you cut off the head at a time when the country is facing financial over-extension and a demographic collapse...
When XI dies -- however that happens -- there will not be another government of China. We will be facing state dissolution. And because the demographic situation is so bad, it's entirely feasible that we have a collapse in the country's ability to generate any economic activity of note. Before such time as something can theoretically rise on the other side of this.
So we probably are looking at the end of the Han ethnicity as a player in international affairs. Because when we get to the end of this century, there aren't going to be a lot of them left. So when XI goes, that's it -- the party's over...
Peter Zeihan: "China After Xi"