Apr 14, 2024 09:21 PM
(This post was last modified: Apr 14, 2024 09:22 PM by C C.)
https://bigthink.com/hard-science/3-body...unication/
EXCERPTS: . . . It’s possible that spacefaring extraterrestrial civilizations evolved to overcome their early aggressive tendencies, though it’s unlikely they would lose them entirely. Even if they did, conflicts could still arise from misunderstandings or the need to survive. Although science-fiction aliens often are shown invading Earth, I don´t think that would be very likely. The only special thing about our planet is its biology.
If mineral resources are what the aliens want, the better option would be to get them from an asteroid or uninhabited moon, without having to fight for them. Earth’s amazing biodiversity is critical to our own survival, but may not be tempting for an ETI (extraterrestrial intelligence). Aliens are likely to find our biosphere toxic since they’d have no immunity to all the bacteria and viruses that we humans have coexisted with for millions of years (think War of the Worlds).
Given the huge risks (and possible rewards) associated with contacting an extraterrestrial civilization, it seems odd that anyone can send out a radio message at any time, without asking permission from anyone. A group associated with the SETI Institute raised this concern back in 2015, stating that “the decision whether or not to transmit must be based upon a worldwide consensus, and not a decision based upon the wishes of a few individuals with access to powerful communications equipment. We strongly encourage vigorous international debate by a broadly representative body prior to engaging further in this activity.” Sadly, there’s been no progress toward making that happen.
Most of the messages sent to date have been in the form of radio waves. These, of course, get weaker the farther they travel into space. The signal strength decreases with the square of the distance from Earth, meaning that if the distance doubles, the signal strength drops by a factor of four. In addition, over long distances, the interstellar medium distorts the signals, meaning that any alien recipients would likely have difficulty distinguishing the transmission from random noise unless a huge power source is used to transmit as in 3 Body Problem, which hasn’t been the case so far.
[...] Even if they’re able to decipher a relatively short and simple message, extended conversations with aliens may prove impossible. Mathematical equations are one thing (would spacefaring aliens know them already?). But as for communicating anything related to human experience, we haven’t yet figured out how to effectively talk with dolphins, a clearly intelligent species related to us. Even some ancient human languages haven’t been decoded yet.
In short, the chances that our radio message could actually reach an ETI are very low, and the chances of them understanding it even lower — that is, unless they’re already here and have been studying us. In that case, it really doesn’t matter whether we transmit or not. That’s the most likely scenario if the Zoo hypothesis is correct, which assumes that an ETI would choose not to interfere with the natural evolution of a developing culture (similar to Star Trek’s “prime directive”).
The other possibility, as pointed out in arecent Nature Astronomy paper by Ian Crawford and me, is that there is nobody else — or hardly anyone else — in our part of the Universe. In that case, it also doesn’t matter whether we transmit or not, because there’s no one around to hear us. Since we don’t know which hypothesis is correct and the possibility exists that both are wrong, we may want to be cautious about signaling our presence to extraterrestrial civilizations — just in case the authors of 3 Body Problem are right... (MORE - missing details)
EXCERPTS: . . . It’s possible that spacefaring extraterrestrial civilizations evolved to overcome their early aggressive tendencies, though it’s unlikely they would lose them entirely. Even if they did, conflicts could still arise from misunderstandings or the need to survive. Although science-fiction aliens often are shown invading Earth, I don´t think that would be very likely. The only special thing about our planet is its biology.
If mineral resources are what the aliens want, the better option would be to get them from an asteroid or uninhabited moon, without having to fight for them. Earth’s amazing biodiversity is critical to our own survival, but may not be tempting for an ETI (extraterrestrial intelligence). Aliens are likely to find our biosphere toxic since they’d have no immunity to all the bacteria and viruses that we humans have coexisted with for millions of years (think War of the Worlds).
Given the huge risks (and possible rewards) associated with contacting an extraterrestrial civilization, it seems odd that anyone can send out a radio message at any time, without asking permission from anyone. A group associated with the SETI Institute raised this concern back in 2015, stating that “the decision whether or not to transmit must be based upon a worldwide consensus, and not a decision based upon the wishes of a few individuals with access to powerful communications equipment. We strongly encourage vigorous international debate by a broadly representative body prior to engaging further in this activity.” Sadly, there’s been no progress toward making that happen.
Most of the messages sent to date have been in the form of radio waves. These, of course, get weaker the farther they travel into space. The signal strength decreases with the square of the distance from Earth, meaning that if the distance doubles, the signal strength drops by a factor of four. In addition, over long distances, the interstellar medium distorts the signals, meaning that any alien recipients would likely have difficulty distinguishing the transmission from random noise unless a huge power source is used to transmit as in 3 Body Problem, which hasn’t been the case so far.
[...] Even if they’re able to decipher a relatively short and simple message, extended conversations with aliens may prove impossible. Mathematical equations are one thing (would spacefaring aliens know them already?). But as for communicating anything related to human experience, we haven’t yet figured out how to effectively talk with dolphins, a clearly intelligent species related to us. Even some ancient human languages haven’t been decoded yet.
In short, the chances that our radio message could actually reach an ETI are very low, and the chances of them understanding it even lower — that is, unless they’re already here and have been studying us. In that case, it really doesn’t matter whether we transmit or not. That’s the most likely scenario if the Zoo hypothesis is correct, which assumes that an ETI would choose not to interfere with the natural evolution of a developing culture (similar to Star Trek’s “prime directive”).
The other possibility, as pointed out in arecent Nature Astronomy paper by Ian Crawford and me, is that there is nobody else — or hardly anyone else — in our part of the Universe. In that case, it also doesn’t matter whether we transmit or not, because there’s no one around to hear us. Since we don’t know which hypothesis is correct and the possibility exists that both are wrong, we may want to be cautious about signaling our presence to extraterrestrial civilizations — just in case the authors of 3 Body Problem are right... (MORE - missing details)
