Jan 5, 2024 06:40 PM
https://www.persuasion.community/p/the-f...dium=email
EXCERPTS: . . . Climate change is real. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the late nineteenth century, average global temperatures have risen by 1.1°C, and according to estimates by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) they are likely to rise by a further 1.0–1.8°C in a very low greenhouse gas emissions scenario, 2.1–3.5°C in a moderate scenario, or as much as 3.3–5.7°C in an extreme scenario.
Because of the complexity of climate systems, we cannot predict exact impacts, but there is widespread consensus that global warming will lead to significant changes in climates around the world...
[...] Global warming is one of the most pressing issues facing humanity. However, to link this issue with the specter of mass migration is a dangerous and misleading practice based on myth rather than fact. The typical approach of apocalyptic climate migration forecasts has been to map changes induced by climate change (such as sea level rise, drought or desertification) onto settlement patterns to predict future human displacement...
I have always been flabbergasted at how naively some serious research organizations buy into such deterministic reasoning, which assumes a one-on-one relation between the environment and migration, in which “environmental pressures” somehow automatically generate movement. There are many reasons to be wary of this narrative, but here are just three.
Geographers have long observed that people show huge resilience in coping with scarcity and environmental threats. In fact, people have often moved towards, instead of away from, places with the greatest environmental hazards, such as river valleys and coastal areas, because these also tend to be the most fertile and prosperous areas—the exact opposite of the climate refugee forecasts.
The paradox is that the most fertile agricultural lands also tend to be most prone to flooding. [...] people are not keen to abandon their lands in fertile river valleys and delta areas. They have historically learned to cope with seasonal and occasional flooding so it becomes a way of life...
Dramatic forecasts of massive climate migration are also based on the assumption that sea level rise will drive people out of coastal areas. However, we cannot just assume that low-lying areas will be submerged. This is mainly because processes of sedimentation—leading to land growth—can counterbalance the effects of erosion and sea level rise. [...] Land rise because of sedimentation explains why studies of satellite images have shown that most deltas, mangroves and other coastal marshlands in the world have actually grown, not shrunk over the past decades, despite the rise in sea level...
[...] The evidence also counters the stereotype that the Pacific islands are massively “sinking” into the ocean. Again, this is because the effects of sea level rise and erosion are counterbalanced by the sedimentation of material generated by the surrounding reef, such as dead coral, weathered shells and dried-up microorganisms...
[...] Nor can we assume that environmental stresses in general will automatically “push” people out of their homes. A wide range of studies has shown that people generally prefer to stay home in the wake of natural shocks, and will do everything they can to stay put...
The idea that climate change will lead to mass migration is based on popular “push-pull” models that naively assume that migration is somehow a linear function of poverty, violence and other forms of human misery. However, migration requires considerable resources, particularly long-distance migration from rural areas to cities or abroad. Extreme poverty—whether caused by environmental stress or other factors—actually tends to deprive vulnerable people of the means to travel and migrate over large distances, and they might therefore find themselves trapped where they are, unable to flee.
Detailed studies fail to find a simple causal link between environmental stress (whether linked to climate change or not) and migration.... (MORE - missing details)
EXCERPTS: . . . Climate change is real. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the late nineteenth century, average global temperatures have risen by 1.1°C, and according to estimates by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) they are likely to rise by a further 1.0–1.8°C in a very low greenhouse gas emissions scenario, 2.1–3.5°C in a moderate scenario, or as much as 3.3–5.7°C in an extreme scenario.
Because of the complexity of climate systems, we cannot predict exact impacts, but there is widespread consensus that global warming will lead to significant changes in climates around the world...
[...] Global warming is one of the most pressing issues facing humanity. However, to link this issue with the specter of mass migration is a dangerous and misleading practice based on myth rather than fact. The typical approach of apocalyptic climate migration forecasts has been to map changes induced by climate change (such as sea level rise, drought or desertification) onto settlement patterns to predict future human displacement...
I have always been flabbergasted at how naively some serious research organizations buy into such deterministic reasoning, which assumes a one-on-one relation between the environment and migration, in which “environmental pressures” somehow automatically generate movement. There are many reasons to be wary of this narrative, but here are just three.
Geographers have long observed that people show huge resilience in coping with scarcity and environmental threats. In fact, people have often moved towards, instead of away from, places with the greatest environmental hazards, such as river valleys and coastal areas, because these also tend to be the most fertile and prosperous areas—the exact opposite of the climate refugee forecasts.
The paradox is that the most fertile agricultural lands also tend to be most prone to flooding. [...] people are not keen to abandon their lands in fertile river valleys and delta areas. They have historically learned to cope with seasonal and occasional flooding so it becomes a way of life...
Dramatic forecasts of massive climate migration are also based on the assumption that sea level rise will drive people out of coastal areas. However, we cannot just assume that low-lying areas will be submerged. This is mainly because processes of sedimentation—leading to land growth—can counterbalance the effects of erosion and sea level rise. [...] Land rise because of sedimentation explains why studies of satellite images have shown that most deltas, mangroves and other coastal marshlands in the world have actually grown, not shrunk over the past decades, despite the rise in sea level...
[...] The evidence also counters the stereotype that the Pacific islands are massively “sinking” into the ocean. Again, this is because the effects of sea level rise and erosion are counterbalanced by the sedimentation of material generated by the surrounding reef, such as dead coral, weathered shells and dried-up microorganisms...
[...] Nor can we assume that environmental stresses in general will automatically “push” people out of their homes. A wide range of studies has shown that people generally prefer to stay home in the wake of natural shocks, and will do everything they can to stay put...
The idea that climate change will lead to mass migration is based on popular “push-pull” models that naively assume that migration is somehow a linear function of poverty, violence and other forms of human misery. However, migration requires considerable resources, particularly long-distance migration from rural areas to cities or abroad. Extreme poverty—whether caused by environmental stress or other factors—actually tends to deprive vulnerable people of the means to travel and migrate over large distances, and they might therefore find themselves trapped where they are, unable to flee.
Detailed studies fail to find a simple causal link between environmental stress (whether linked to climate change or not) and migration.... (MORE - missing details)