Israel-Gaza War (and Iranian Distractions)

[Yazata]

Iran just launched the largest ballistic missile attack in history on Israel. The entire population of Israel told to go to bomb shelters. Hundreds of ballistic missiles were launched, and while many of them were intercepted, many of them got through. So far most of the missiles appear to have been launched at Tel Aviv and at the Israeli nuclear weapons site at Dimona. Video shows many impacts.

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Apparently the attack has concluded and Israelis have been told that they can emerge from their shelters. With sunrise, damage looks less devastating than was feared when the missiles were falling. No word yet on casualties.

[Zinjanthropos]

I think Khamenei just signed his own death certificate. His and a bunch of generals’.

[Yazata]

Talk now is that if even a few of the missiles that got through had nuclear warheads, that would be all she wrote for tiny Israel. Everyone is waiting to see what Israel's reply will be, and many are calling for them to target Iran's nuclear program. The big question is whether they have the military capability to destroy it. (I suspect that they don't.)

So the question is what the United States does.

[Syne]

Iran should be ended. Period.

[Yazata]

It's looking like the Iranian missile attack targeted Israeli air bases. The Israelis claim that damage was minor and that there were no Israeli casualties.

I'm skeptical about that, since video shows dozens of missiles hitting the bases. That said, the Israelis were probably all in shelters. And I don't think that the Iranian missiles were very precisely guided. Their guidance was good enough to find their way to the bases, but seemingly not good enough to target particular runways, buildings or aircraft shelters. Instead the Iranian missiles seemed to fall randomly. Many of them probably didn't hit anything of value. In particular, I didn't see any big fireballs or plumes of smoke which would have indicated that tanks of aviation fuel were hit. But runways are a big target and I'd expect some runway cratering. That will interfere with Israeli air operations until it's repaired, which might take several days.

The big question I have is whether any aircraft were destroyed on the ground.

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Jordan has posted some video that they say shows Iranian missiles being intercepted by Jordanian missiles over the Jordanian capital of Amman.

I'm skeptical about this and am more inclined to think that they were Israeli missiles that performed their intercepts over Jordan.

But it's still rather important that Jordan claimed credit, since it communicates to Iran whose side they are on. That could conceivably be dangerous to Jordan, since Iran has threatened to strike any Arab state that sides with Israel.

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That brings up another issue. If Israel hauls off and launches a big retaliatory strike on Iran, might some of the Arab military powers like Saudi Arabia or the UAE join with Israel in trying to weaken Iran and crippling its nuclear weapons program? While I don't know if Israel is strong enough to do the necessary damage to Iran all by itself (provided it doesn't use nukes) a combined attack just might be. Making US participation unnecessary.

While for Israel it's a life-or-death matter of the survival of their country, the other Arab states have an interest in preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear-armed regional superpower that would dominate all of them.

[Yazata]

This is Fawzi Amin Sido, who was an eleven year old Yezedi girl in 2014 when she was kidnapped by ISIS and turned into a sex-slave/child-bride for an ISIS fighter. When the ISIS state was destroyed, her owner/"husband" took her to Gaza where he joined Hamas. She has just been rescued at the age of 21 from Gaza by the Israeli Defense Force and has returned back to what remains of her Yezedi family in Iraq.

[Image: GY-YThUWcAAtDGb?format=jpg&name=small]

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Iran has been boasting that their missile attack devastated Nevatim air base outside Beersheba in southern Israel, destroying as many as 20 F-35's, Israel's most modern aircraft.

Well, here is post-attack satellite imagery of the base. Only three missile impacts are visible inside the base perimeter, only one of which struck an aircraft shelter. Assuming (entirely hypothetically) that the shelter contained an F-35 at the time, and (again hypothetically) that explosive concussion and fragments destroyed whatever was in the two adjoining shelters, that's a maximum of three F-35's knocked out. Most likely less.

As long as I'm speculating, there's a row of seven of what appear to be C130's in the upper left (with a eighth taxiing). There is a large black square next to the second from the right. It's conceivable that this is hastily applied asphalt meant to patch a crater. If there was indeed an explosion there, at least one of the 130's was likely damaged. They all look intact though, not burned or blown apart, so probably repairable if they were damaged at all.

So the Israeli claims of little damage might be accurate.

A thought: The C130 that is taxiing appears to be painted grey, while the others are painted sand colored. I believe that the Israeli air force paints theirs sand colored, while the US airforce favors grey. Which raises the question whether any US aircraft/personnel were at Nevatim when it came under attack.

[Image: GY-I_srWQAALU40?format=jpg&name=900x900]

[Yazata]

Update: It appears that Nevatim is divided between a fighter jet section and a transport/reconnaissance/refueling section. The photo above is of the latter section.

[Image: GY-bzNcWwAAGoPy?format=jpg&name=4096x4096]

Here's some imagery of the fighter jet section with dark spots that may or may not be damage circled. I don't see a whole lot of damage to aircraft in this photo or in others like it. Perhaps some in the upper left of the aircraft parking area to the right of the red circle. There might be traces of fire there. Most of the aircraft parking spots are empty, I assume these jets are busy attacking Hezbollah up in Lebanon.

[Image: GY-bzNgX0AA9kkb?format=jpg&name=900x900]

nsNS

[Yazata]

The sweet looking gentleman below is Hashem Safieddine, head of Hezbollah's executive council and cousin of the late Hassan Nasrallah. He is believed to have recently been chosen to be Hezbollah's new leader.

Well, as is their habit, tonight Israel struck an underground bunker in south Beirut's Dahieh suburb where Safieddine was believed to be meeting with Iranian IRGC Quds force officers using a very powerful bunker busting bomb. The Israelis haven't verified that Safieddine is dead, but they are pretty confident they got him.

[Image: GY_wdOrWwAA_u8c?format=jpg&name=small]

[Image: GY_u2UUXYAAlz_K?format=jpg&name=small]

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In other news, the Israelis struck warehouses at Syria's Latakia international airport. Iranian aircraft had just been there and offloaded armaments meant for Hezbollah in Lebanon. What makes this strike unusual is that the military side of this commercial airport is Syria's Khmeimim air base which is currently occupied and used by the Russian air force. The Russians have been operating out of Khmeimim for ten years, since they intervened in the Syrian civil war to support Bashir al Assad.

The Russian facilities weren't targeted.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GY_RfytXQAAT...name=small

[Zinjanthropos]

The sweet looking gentleman below is Hashem Safieddine, head of Hezbollah's executive council and cousin of the late Hassan Nasrallah. He is believed to have recently been chosen to be Hezbollah's new leader.

Well, as is their habit, tonight Israel struck an underground bunker in south Beirut's Dahieh suburb where Safieddine was believed to be meeting with Iranian IRGC Quds force officers using a very powerful bunker busting bomb. The Israelis haven't verified that Safieddine is dead, but they are pretty confident they got him.

[Image: GY_wdOrWwAA_u8c?format=jpg&name=small]

[Image: GY_u2UUXYAAlz_K?format=jpg&name=small]

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In other news, the Israelis struck warehouses at Syria's Latakia international airport. Iranian aircraft had just been there and offloaded armaments meant for Hezbollah in Lebanon. What makes this strike unusual is that the military side of this commercial airport is Syria's Khmeimim air base which is currently occupied and used by the Russian air force. The Russians have been operating out of Khmeimim for ten years, since they intervened in the Syrian civil war to support Bashir al Assad.

The Russian facilities weren't targeted.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GY_RfytXQAAT...name=small

Not a recent pic I assume, so I wonder if the two gents behind Saffieddine are missing testicles these days. I hope Israel got the prick.

Symbolically speaking, the bottom pic looks like someone’s privates going up in smoke.

[confused2]

To follow

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[Image: GY-YThUWcAAtDGb?format=jpg&name=small]

This is Fawzi Amin Sido, who was an eleven year old Yezedi girl in 2014 when she was kidnapped by ISIS and turned into a sex-slave/child-bride for an ISIS fighter. When the ISIS state was destroyed, her owner/"husband" took her to Gaza where he joined Hamas. She has just been rescued at the age of 21 from Gaza by the Israeli Defense Force and has returned back to what remains of her Yezedi family in Iraq.

Same picture, same girl but now she's called Ezidi Fevziye. Kurdish/Yezedi isn't necessarily a contradiction.

Ezidi Fevziye, a Kurdish girl kidnapped by ISIS 10 years ago from Şengal (Iraq Kurdistan) and sold to Hamas, was rescued during Israeli operations in Gaza. Abducted at the age of 11, Fevziye was handed over to Iraqi authorities at the age of 21 to be reunited with her family.

https://9gag.com/gag/an79X3B

Some points arise in the comments ..
ISIS and hamas have very different aims. Hamas wants a 'normal' state that joins the UN .. (also the elimination of Israel) whereas ISIS wants an Islamic world empire .. no UN, just Islam. Possible (but unlikely) that a an ISIS fighter would want to join Hamas. One possibility is that she was sold as a sex slave to a Gazan citizen - it makes a better story if the citizen was 'hamas' or indeed all Gazans are Hamas.

If her name was changed to protect her identity .. I hope that is the reason.