Russian Ukraine Invasion

[RainbowUnicorn]

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/MIit3ScsoSY

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https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/70XTTieKNys

[RainbowUnicorn]

[Image: FeOeR0uXkAgCqGg?format=jpg&name=large]

[Yazata]

I no longer doubt that Vlad will use at least one small yield, tactical nuclear weapon when the Ukrainians finally penetrate to some part that he can't tolerate being reclaimed.

I think that Crimea is probably that place. It's very important to the Russians, both strategically and historically, and Russia has already said years ago that if it is threatened the response will be nuclear. They will defend it as they would Moscow or St. Petersburg.

But by formally annexing the four additional Ukrainian oblasts, Putin has kind of boxed himself into a corner. If they really are parts of Russia as he claims, don't they deserve the same nuclear defense as Crimea? Can he allow even the appearance that foreign enemies are chipping off pieces of the Russian Federation? Putin is under extreme pressure right now and I'm sure that many of his rivals have their knives out.

And we all know that the Ukrainians are steaming mad and that they smell blood after their recent battlefield victories. So they aren't going to back off and cede part of their country to Russia. So we seem to be headed for a fatal head-on collision.

What he'll strike is anyone's guess, aside from it being a target shocking enough to halt any further progress.

My guess is that the first use of nuclear weapons would be a demonstration shot. Probably detonated over the Black Sea or in some unhabited spot, if any exist in Ukraine. Its purpose would be to demonstrate that the nuclear red-line has been crossed, so stop now.

If Ukraine didn't take the hint, the next nuclear detonation would probably be someplace calculated to hurt their war effort. We might see a tactical nuclear weapon hitting a military base right outside Kyiv so that the city residents can see the flash and the mushroom cloud and hopefully panic. The Russians probably have a target list of military bases, transport hubs, electical generating plants, industry and all that.

Or alternatively, put a small nuclear weapon on downtown Kyiv in hopes of decapitating the government. Basically what they initially expected to do with conventional forces when the war started in February.

The wild card at that point would be how NATO (meaning the US) would respond. Political pressure to do something would be overwhelming. So there would probably be a military response against Russia. So the ratchet would be engaged and the world would be riding the escalator to nuclear annihilation.

[C C]

I no longer doubt that Vlad will use at least one small yield, tactical nuclear weapon when the Ukrainians finally penetrate to some part that he can't tolerate being reclaimed. What he'll strike is anyone's guess, aside from it being a target shocking enough to halt any further progress.

If he does decide to do that, it would be very stupid, as it will result in a swift response.  It's not because people are poised to strike him back, it's actually because if he lets of a nuke and no one does anything in retaliation, what sort of message would it send to Iran or North Korea? (It would be open season for any tyranical nuke wielder to hit whomever they want)

Russia's whole philosophy in having such a surplus of tactical nukes seems to be that they believe the West will tolerate a few before responding with strategic warheads. Although a lot of that circa 2,000 in number stockpile could be intended for naval warfare (nuclear torpedoes, etc).

The West, in contrast, with only a couple of hundred, clearly believes that long, long before their "meager" supply is exhausted a conflict will have escalated to the traditional conception of a nuclear war, anyway.

It would be extremely damaging to Russia's reputation to even use one, but it's already so deep in the gutter, alongside sanctions, that the monomaniac thought orientation regarding Ukraine probably deems it a navigable sacrifice. Plus, to counter the pusillanimous image it now suffers as a world power, it desperately has to remind the globe of why it is still much to be feared.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive seems unstoppable for Russian's ragtag invaders turned defenders, minus something horrible intervening. But an alternative to a nuclear strike might be to exhaust their mobile missile supply coming in via rails by using conventional explosives instead, on either the advancing troops or the populations of cities in western Ukraine. Poison gas could even be a remote option.

Defenders of Mariupol from the Azov Regiment reported that on the evening of April 11, the Russian military used an unknown poison against the Ukrainian military and civilians.
https://www.txtreport.com/news/2022-04-1...bfM49.html

(2002) More than 100 hostages are dead after Russian authorities used an unidentified gas to incapacitate terrorists holding 750 people in a Moscow theater. Nearly all of the deaths were due to the gas, which Russian authorities have so far refused to identify.
https://fsi.stanford.edu/publications/ru...son_gases/

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I no longer doubt that Vlad will use at least one small yield, tactical nuclear weapon when the Ukrainians finally penetrate to some part that he can't tolerate being reclaimed.

I think that Crimea is probably that place. It's very important to the Russians, both strategically and historically, and Russia has already said years ago that if it is threatened the response will be nuclear. They will defend it as they would Moscow or St. Petersburg.

But by formally annexing the four additional Ukrainian oblasts, Putin has kind of boxed himself into a corner. If they really are parts of Russia as he claims, don't they deserve the same nuclear defense as Crimea? Can he allow even the appearance that foreign enemies are chipping off pieces of the Russian Federation?

And we all know that the Ukrainians are steaming mad and that they smell blood after their recent battlefield victories. So they aren't going to back off and cede part of their country to Russia. So we seem to be headed for a fatal head-on collision.

What he'll strike is anyone's guess, aside from it being a target shocking enough to halt any further progress.

My guess is that the first use of nuclear weapons would be a demonstration shot. Probably detonated over the Black Sea or in some unhabited spot, if any exist in Ukraine. Its purpose would be to demonstrate that the nuclear red-line has been crossed, so stop now.

If Ukraine didn't take the hint, the next nuclear detonation would probably be someplace calculated to hurt their war effort. We might see a tactical nuclear weapon hitting a military base right outside Kyiv so that the city residents can see the flash and the mushroom cloud and hopefully panic. The Russians probably have a target list of military bases, transport hubs, electical generating plants, industry and all that.

Or alternatively, put a small nuclear weapon on downtown Kyiv in hopes of decapitating the government. Basically what they initially expected to do with conventional forces when the war started in February.

The wild card at that point would be how NATO (meaning the US) would respond. Political pressure to do something would be overwhelming. So there would probably be a military response against Russia. So the ratchet would be engaged and the world would be riding the escalator to nuclear annihilation.

That pretty adeptly sums up the options they've got if Russia does go with tactical nukes, especially including the demonstration blast. The Ukrainians have already penetrated and reclaimed parts of the recently "annexed" land without incurring supreme wrath, so Crimea may indeed be the holy of holies for Putin.

Elon already got into trouble with Zelensky and the Ukrainian social media crowd for suggesting they just forget about taking back Crimea as part of a deal to end this mess. So the ultimate confrontation, triggering a nuclear attitude, looks destined to happen.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIit3ScsoSY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=70XTTieKNys

Gotta' feel sorry for the Ruskie soldiers that didn't volunteer or go the mercenary route. At least the Ukrainians seem to understand that on the occasions when they get close-up and personal enough for a surrender option to be possible, instead of long-distance being blown to bits.

[RainbowUnicorn]

UPDATE

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/vZcbefpUGp8

[Yazata]

That pretty adeptly sums up the options they've got if Russia does go with tactical nukes, especially including the demonstration blast. The Ukrainians have already penetrated and reclaimed parts of the recently "annexed" land without incurring supreme wrath, so Crimea may indeed be the holy of holies for Putin.

Elon already got into trouble with Zelensky and the Ukrainian social media crowd for suggesting they just forget about taking back Crimea as part of a deal to end this mess. So the ultimate confrontation, triggering a nuclear attitude, looks destined to happen.

Yeah, I was thinking of that when I wrote my reply. I think that Elon is basically right, but war-hysteria has been whipped up to such a level that nobody wants to hear it.

Elon's 4-point peace plan with my comments

1. Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that's the will of the people.

I expect that Ukraine would win the elections if they are truly free, so Russia would be giving up not only territories won in the 2022 war, but also the separatist Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics. This would be Russia's biggest objection to Elon's plan I think. It would return them to a worse position than they had before the war. It would also carry with it the humiliation of demonstrating to the world that the people they were purporting to save don't want them.

2. Crimea formally part of Russia

Realism, recognizing Russia's nuclear red line. Ceding Crimea is Ukraine's biggest objection I think. During the opening days of the war, the Ukrainians were desparately looking for a negotiated end to hostilities. But after their recent battlefield victories, their demands have gone maximalist. They are (understandibly) in no mood for compromise.

3. Water supply to Crimea assured.

Crimea has historically gotten its water from the Dnipro reservoirs. After Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea, that supply was cut. Of course there's nothing in Elon's proposal that says that Ukraine can't charge Russia for the water and make money off it. I don't see this item as a biggie.

4. Ukraine remains neutral

This one looks impossible to me. Russia burned that bridge when they invaded. Ukraine hates Russia and will align with whoever they think will help them against Russia.

But I believe very much that Ukraine should not become part of NATO. NATO is perceived by the Russians (probably accurately) as an anti-Russian holdover from the Cold War. So Ukrainian NATO membership would be a huge provocation in itself and might cross the nuclear red-line. What's more, the fundamental problem with NATO is that the United States becomes obligated to go to war to defend each and every member. (Which is why so many have cut their own defense budgets and effectively outsourced their defense to the US.) But in Ukraine's case that obligation to go to war would put us in direct (probably nuclear) confrontation with Russia.

I'm very much a believer in the principle that the US should only go to war if vital US interests are threatened. (And then we should fight to win. World War II is the paradigmatic example.) And no matter how sympathetic Americans are to the brave and inspiring Ukrainian cause, Ukraine simply isn't a vital American interest. It is a vital Russian interest though, which means that Ukrainian NATO membership would put the US into a very dangerous situation.

Of course the US and the Europeans enter into many military alliances and cooperation agreements around the world that don't obligate the signatories to go to war for each other. I can see Ukraine doing that with the Americans and Europeans. At the very least, Ukraine will be a big new market for American and European arms manufacturers.

[Yazata]

From the 'What the Hell is This??' department - spotted in Russian held Svatove, east of Kupyansk.

Turns out it's a BTM trench digger, Manufactured in several civilian and military models from the 1950's through the 1970's, from somewhere deep in Russian storage. Though they are old, they are said to be rugged and reliable.

The Russians are really rummaging around in their basement, looking for stuff they might have forgotten.

[Image: FePscCXWQAApp7d?format=jpg&name=medium]

[RainbowUnicorn]

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/CSlWJemuEvg

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Elon's 4-point peace plan with my comments

1. Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that's the will of the people.

Russia wont accept losing crimea to a vote

2. Crimea formally part of Russia

no effective difference to now which is refer #1 but its still a military base

3. Water supply to Crimea assured.

if russia get everything they want then they may possibly choose this

4. Ukraine remains neutral

ukraine will become part of nato regardless the invasion sealed that fate by a basic use of force
& russia is going backwards into its old cold war era to gain more territory and rally its own citizenry into a war footing

[/quote]

Elons premise is looking for an end to the war
putins premise is to concur new lands & be the greatest russia tsar of all time

why does elon care if lots of russians have to die before putin pulls his troops out ?
probably because elon wants to sell teslas to russia & also wants russian minerals to build his cars and rockets. (self interest)

with the massive increase in electricity prices
Elon will be watching his production costs go up
so he has vested interest in the war ending to make more money from reduced factory operating costs which effect his car sales prices.
with rising electricity costs it makes people think about the cost of re-charging their tesla cars & is putting extra strain on the electricity grids

so he is not impartial

putin & russians are the ones causing all the death and suffering

UPDATE

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/WV9XJHECd5A

[RainbowUnicorn]

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/PGHkODQeItc

[RainbowUnicorn]

[Image: FePw2qyWQBQwJta?format=jpg&name=large]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/stat...4509884416