Russian Ukraine Invasion

[stryder]

Talk about the blind leading the blind.

The "underlying causes" (to anyone who's actually paid attention) would be Ukraine seeking NATO membership. Trump has already said Ukraine joining NATO is not on the table of any peace deal... even before Putin mentioned this. It just makes sense to deescalate the region. Proxy hostilities from the West arming Ukraine is in the same vein.

I'm willing to bet there's some negotiation room between surrender and withdrawal from Kursk, which is Russian territory.

But any rational person should readily recognize that no one, other than Trump, has/had any feasible plan for peace... much less even a foreseeable strategy to end this war.

Syne, There was plenty of ways of dealing with the situation. The problem is that there wasn't any strong leadership because they were all use to America taking the lead and being the strong one. Since Trump though, the other countries now know that the US can't be relied upon to do that anymore. Thats why the other countries are starting to work out other ways of doing things.

Trump is getting his one pump chance to fix things, but if it's truly that broke, I'd expect he resignation.

Meanwhile I'm a little apprehensive about all the Tariff's he wants to bill everyone with, since I think the flash of cash is just to try and wet Putins appetite to play ball. The problem is that none of the countries he's trying to tariff are going to be too happy about money going to Russia, so that tariffs could end up getting frozen if it heads that way, which in turn means if the peace deal is based on that breadline it will probably be DOA.

Further to that, the Hotel and Golf course that Trump intends to build in Gaza for the Israeli's is obviously going to cost the US treasury, either from taxation or tariffs.

[Yazata]

The "underlying causes" (to anyone who's actually paid attention) would be Ukraine seeking NATO membership. Trump has already said Ukraine joining NATO is not on the table of any peace deal... even before Putin mentioned this.

Exactly. NATO was obviously the proximate cause. And I think that Russia's larger complaint was the US and Europe trying to subvert what Russia perceived as its most important ally. That's why Russia responded so aggressively to the coup that the US and Europe helped engineer in Kyiv in 2014, by seizing Crimea.

It just makes sense to deescalate the region. Proxy hostilities from the West arming Ukraine is in the same vein.

Putin told the US representative yesterday that he agreed with the idea of a ceasefire, but there were several issues that needed to be worked out before he could agree to order it. One of them was Ukraine using the respite from battle to arm to the teeth with American weapons and to train up a whole bunch of fresh soldiers. Apparently Russia perceives themselves as having the advantage in a war of attrition, so they perceive a ceasefire as being something that Ukraine badly needs and hence as being in Ukraine's advantage.

For it's part, the US clearly does not want to be drawn into an endless and exceedlingly costly proxy war with Russia with the danger of going nuclear at any time. If Europe really wants the war to continue indefinitely, then they can damn well pay for it and supply it with arms.

I'm willing to bet there's some negotiation room between surrender and withdrawal from Kursk, which is Russian territory.

Another reason for Putin to delay a ceasefire. Russia is likely to evict the Ukrainians from Kursk oblast in a matter of days, so it's in Russia's interest to hold out for that, rather than letting Zelensky use it as a bargaining chip to extract a Russian concession elsewhere.

But any rational person should readily recognize that no one, other than Trump, has/had any feasible plan for peace... much less even a foreseeable strategy to end this war.

Biden (or whoever controlled the auto-pen that signed his name on orders) had no plan and never even tried to stop the war. The Europeans have no plan and haven't tried.

[Image: Gl9vOeuWQAAmGof?format=png&name=medium]

nsNS

[confused2]

Looks to me like Trump plans to hand Ukraine over to Putin in return for the proper respect due to the American President able to negotiate a ceasefire. Europe is too weak and disorganised to hold Putin back .. so that's it for Ukraine.

[Syne]

Putin told the US representative yesterday that he agreed with the idea of a ceasefire, but there were several issues that needed to be worked out before he could agree to order it. One of them was Ukraine using the respite from battle to arm to the teeth with American weapons and to train up a whole bunch of fresh soldiers. Apparently Russia perveives themselves as having the advantage in a war of attrition, so they perceive a ceasefire as being something that Ukraine badly needs and hence as being in Ukraine's advantage.

I hadn't thought of that. Very good point.

If Europe really wants the war to continue indefinitely, then they can damn well pay for it and supply it with arms.

Absolutely. They also seem to be getting a lot of mileage out of the Russia fearmongering... probably to consolidate their own power even more.

Another reason for Putin to delay a ceasefire. Russia is likely to evict the Ukrainians from Kursk oblast in a matter of days, so it's in Russia's interest to hold out for that, rather than letting Zelensky use it as a bargaining chip to extract a Russian concession elsewhere.

Yeah, I thought some of your updates were headed that way.

...(or whoever controlled the auto-pen that signed his name on orders) ...

This.

---

Syne, There was plenty of ways of dealing with the situation. The problem is that there wasn't any strong leadership because they were all use to America taking the lead and being the strong one. Since Trump though, the other countries now know that the US can't be relied upon to do that anymore. Thats why the other countries are starting to work out other ways of doing things.

Trump is getting his one pump chance to fix things, but if it's truly that broke, I'd expect he resignation.

Meanwhile I'm a little apprehensive about all the Tariff's he wants to bill everyone with, since I think the flash of cash is just to try and wet Putins appetite to play ball. The problem is that none of the countries he's trying to tariff are going to be too happy about money going to Russia, so that tariffs could end up getting frozen if it heads that way, which in turn means if the peace deal is based on that breadline it will probably be DOA.

Further to that, the Hotel and Golf course that Trump intends to build in Gaza for the Israeli's is obviously going to cost the US treasury, either from taxation or tariffs.

Don't like it? Breed and elect stronger leaders. And it's exactly that kind of European weakness that would lead anyone to think of resigning a few months into a huge effort to rework domestic government and make international peace deals. Maybe forcing Europe to be adults, responsible for their own security, you eventually will breed stronger stock.

But guess what? None of them would be doing anything if it weren't for Trump. Biden's lack of leadership didn't spur them to action... other then arming/funding an endless war. Now they're taking the bloodshed in Ukraine more seriously.

You're apprehensive about reciprocal tariffs? LOL! And you're delusional if you think the US is sending Russia any money. It's actually Europe who's been funding Russia by buying Russian oil.

Just like the US investing in rare mineral mining in Ukraine, US investment in Gaza would also end up paying dividends.


Like I said, the blind leading the blind.

---

Looks to me like Trump plans to hand Ukraine over to Putin in return for the proper respect due to the American President able to negotiate a ceasefire. Europe is too weak and disorganised to hold Putin back .. so that's it for Ukraine.

What are you seeing that would remotely suggest anyone is handing the entirety of Ukraine over? Anything other than BBC hysterics?

[stryder]

You're apprehensive about reciprocal tariffs? LOL! And you're delusional if you think the US is sending Russia any money. It's actually Europe who's been funding Russia by buying Russian oil.

You miss all that USAID money that was used to prop up democracy in countries on the Russian border, that likely got leeched off by Russian from their infiltration to create corruption for literally decades. they made a situation they've been paid for for years and probably funded spies throughout the US through it. Musk going in there with DOGE though might of been a bit hatchet like though for a proper investigation.

[Syne]

Likely? You're just making up bullshit.
USAID was as leftists as Europe, which is STILL funding Russia... directly.

[confused2]

What are you seeing that would remotely suggest anyone is handing the entirety of Ukraine over? Anything other than BBC hysterics?

Apparently Russia perceives themselves as having the advantage in a war of attrition,

I hadn't thought of that. Very good point.

Think about it.

[Syne]

And how do you make the leap from "war of attrition" to taking over the "entirety of Ukraine"?

You do realize that wars of attrition don't usually end in one entire country being subsumed by the other. Don't you?

One of the most enduring examples of attrition warfare on the Western Front is the Battle of Verdun, which took place throughout most of 1916. Erich von Falkenhayn later claimed that his tactics at Verdun were designed not to take the city but rather to destroy the French Army in its defense.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attrition_...Best_known

Most typical
The French invasion of Russia is a textbook example of attrition warfare, where Russia interfered with Napoleon's military logistics and won the war without a decisive battle.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attrition_...st_typical

Or do you believe the French took all of Russia?

[stryder]

Likely? You're just making up bullshit.
USAID was as leftists as Europe, which is STILL funding Russia... directly.

Left or Right doesn't matter when it's about cohersion and manipulation for Russian state gain. So quit strawmanning.

[Syne]

Likely? You're just making up bullshit.
USAID was as leftists as Europe, which is STILL funding Russia... directly.

Left or Right doesn't matter when it's about cohersion and manipulation for Russian state gain. So quit strawmanning.

There's not a single straw man in what I said.

Europe is LITERALLY still funding Russia, by buying Russian oil.

What you said USAID did is exactly what most European countries also do. "Humanitarian aid" aimed at spreading their own cultural values, with little to no oversight as to where those funds ultimately end up. Your baseless claims about what Russia "leeched off" are just that, baseless. If anything, that is the straw man here.