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Scaring the Crap out of Hawaii

#1
Yazata Offline
This morning, a beautiful Saturday morning in paradise, a text alert went out to all cell phones in Hawaii, saying that a ballistic missile was inbound and that it wasn't a drill. Air raid sirens were going off and everything. People were panicking while others (thinking 'what can I possibly do?') filmed them with their cell phone cameras. Photos of empty streets and little groups of people standing around talking. There are stories of parents sticking their children in storm drains.

People suddenly realized there were no shelters and no place to go. The only advice seemed to be to lay down flat and stay away from doors and windows. (Not bad advice, actually... See the kind of damage in this thread) People felt that their only option was standing around waiting to get vaporized.

Then 30 minutes later, word went out that here was no missile. Turns out that it was all human error at the HI state Emergency Preparedness Office that accidentally activate the state attack warnings. (I'd hate to be the person that "pushed the wrong button", because heads are gonna roll.  

Oops!
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#2
Magical Realist Online
Well..it's just a question of being vaporized standing outside or having a building collapse on top of you inside. I guess it took a false alert to show everybody the futility of any action whatsoever.

"A 1 megaton nuclear bomb creates a firestorm that can cover 100 square miles. A 20 megaton blast's firestorm can cover nearly 2500 square miles."
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#3
RainbowUnicorn Offline
(Jan 13, 2018 10:30 PM)Yazata Wrote: This morning, a beautiful Saturday morning in paradise, a text alert went out to all cell phones in Hawaii, saying that a ballistic missile was inbound and that it wasn't a drill. Air raid sirens were going off and everything. People were panicking while others (thinking 'what can I possibly do?') filmed them with their cell phone cameras. Photos of empty streets and little groups of people standing around talking. There are stories of parents sticking their children in storm drains.

People suddenly realized there were no shelters and no place to go. The only advice seemed to be to lay down flat and stay away from doors and windows. (Not bad advice, actually... See the kind of damage in this thread) People felt that their only option was standing around waiting to get vaporized.

Then 30 minutes later, word went out that here was no missile. Turns out that it was all human error at the HI state Emergency Preparedness Office that accidentally activate the state attack warnings. (I'd hate to be the person that "pushed the wrong button", because heads are gonna roll.  

Oops!

Accident or accidential ideal ...
Either way i do not think the person should be sacked unles they have a track record of such errors that show a clear lack of management over sight, control and incompetance.

The knee jerk reaction to fire people for single breaches has been scientifically proven to be a complete failure in these type of systemic errors.

The ability to keep on someone who has made a single mistake and review the procedures has shown a far higher quality of outcome, conversely to...
the sudden firing of people which usualy signals managemet covering their ass for the reason they have been the actual cause of a system that has allowed critical failures to occur soo easily.

i cant be bothered pulling out all the research but anyone interested in the facts can find them easily enough with google.

now the conversation will hopefully evolve.

... interestingly enough... i dont know anything about millitary stuff, however, would it not seem obviouse that Hawaii would be possibly THE most protected island in the world from such like things ?
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#4
Yazata Offline
Hawaii has about 1.5 million people scattered across its various islands. (About 1 million of them on Oahu in Honolulu and its outlying areas like Pearl Harbor and all the military housing.)

A big problem with a North Korean nuke is that nobody knows how accurate the rocket would be. So it might hit right on top of Honolulu (like a Russian missile presumably would do), or it might miss, hitting maybe 50 or 100 miles out over the ocean. Nobody knows how big its warhead would be either. A comparatively small Hiroshima-size atom bomb or a bigger H-bomb. That's why the laying flat and avoiding windows advice is good advice. If the bomb isn't huge and it detonates a few miles away from where you are, buildings will probably remain standing but windows and doors will likely be blown out and there may be flash-burns.

It's a little mind boggling to think that everyone there this morning believed that there was a good chance they might be living the last 10 or 20 minutes of their lives. What would you do? Who would you try to contact? What would you say?? There's not enough time to try to flee, and where would you go on an island 20 miles across at its widest point if you don't know where the missile will detonate?


[Image: 1200px-Honolulu01.JPG]
[Image: 1200px-Honolulu01.JPG]



Quote:... interestingly enough... i dont know anything about millitary stuff, however, would it not seem obviouse that Hawaii would be possibly THE most protected island in the world from such like things ?

You would think so (given all the military bases in Hawaii) but apparently not. The only operational anti-ballistic missile interceptors that the US has are stationed at Ft. Greely in Alaska (under the 'great circle' route from NK to the continental US) and Vandenberg in California. That suggests that the threat is seen as coming from the west, presumably North Korea. (There were plans to build a third site in Poland to defend against missiles coming from the east (Iran?) but political opposition in Europe killed that idea.) There are only about 40 interceptors total (though that number is expected to increase as NK's capabilities improve). Their effectiveness is unknown, but probably not that great, each one with less than a 50% chance of destroying an incoming missile. I believe that they test missile interceptors in Hawaii, that launch from there to try to destroy dummy ICBM's fired from California, but that's just R&D.
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#5
stryder Offline
"Keep Calm and Carry On"

I've seen a similar state of panic when an Aircraft I was on developed an Engine fault. The flight attendant said the captain had something to say, the captain then said over the speakers that if we'd looked out the starboard windows that the wing wasn't leaking fuel, he was actually dumping it due to an engine failure for safety reasons and that we'd land for repairs at JFK. The attendant retook the over the speakers again, and to be honest you could hear complete panic in her voice as she suggested people should be in their seats, belted up and readying for the worst.

The flights passengers seemed to be frantically looking around fearfully. I considered the point, "I'm on a plane, If it drops from the sky there is little if anything I can do. So there is no point panicking, so I decided to get some kip (or at least try) as I considered if I was going to suffer an ill-fated flight I might as well be oblivious to it.

As you can guess (since I'm writing about it) we touched down at JFK (although it was a rough landing) and we had to sit in the plane for a couple of hours as they repaired the engine and refuelled before continuing our journey to England.

In essence if something is outside of your control, it's best just to continue living how you were or find somewhere quiet to get some shuteye.
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#6
RainbowUnicorn Offline
(Jan 14, 2018 06:14 AM)Yazata Wrote: Hawaii has about 1.5 million people scattered across its various islands. (About 1 million of them on Oahu in Honolulu and its outlying areas like Pearl Harbor and all the military housing.)

A big problem with a North Korean nuke is that nobody knows how accurate the rocket would be. So it might hit right on top of Honolulu (like a Russian missile presumably would do), or it might miss, hitting maybe 50 or 100 miles out over the ocean. Nobody knows how big its warhead would be either. A comparatively small Hiroshima-size atom bomb or a bigger H-bomb. That's why the laying flat and avoiding windows advice is good advice. If the bomb isn't huge and it detonates a few miles away from where you are, buildings will probably remain standing but windows and doors will likely be blown out and there may be flash-burns.  

It's a little mind boggling to think that everyone there this morning believed that there was a good chance they might be living the last 10 or 20 minutes of their lives. What would you do? Who would you try to contact? What would you say?? There's not enough time to try to flee, and where would you go on an island 20 miles across at its widest point if you don't know where the missile will detonate?


Quote:... interestingly enough... i dont know anything about millitary stuff, however, would it not seem obviouse that Hawaii would be possibly THE most protected island in the world from such like things ?

You would think so (given all the military bases in Hawaii) but apparently not. The only operational anti-ballistic missile interceptors that the US has are stationed at Ft. Greely in Alaska and Vandenberg in California. That suggests that the threat is seen as coming from the west, presumably North Korea. There are only about 40 interceptors total. Their effectiveness is unknown, but probably not that great, each one with less than a 50% chance of destroying an incoming missile. I believe that they test missile interceptors in Hawaii, trying to destroy dummy ICBM's fired from California, but that's just R&D.

i heard the news mention (some weeks back about a DPRK missle test)"re-entry" something something...
since i like space stuff i am guessing this refers to the angle of trajectory... ?
so anti missile systems would need to be stationed to intercept directly above, rather than from a horizontal position  ?
i guess this requires a far greater level of technology ?
ground based laser ?
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#7
Syne Offline
(Jan 14, 2018 06:14 AM)Yazata Wrote: It's a little mind boggling to think that everyone there this morning believed that there was a good chance they might be living the last 10 or 20 minutes of their lives. What would you do? Who would you try to contact? What would you say?? There's not enough time to try to flee, and where would you go on an island 20 miles across at its widest point if you don't know where the missile will detonate?

Plan to survival. Shelter near water, or a building with fire sprinklers or showers that I'd hope survive in operational condition. If the blast doesn't kill you, the radioactive particles can be washed away, limiting exposure.
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#8
Magical Realist Online
Quote:It's a little mind boggling to think that everyone there this morning believed that there was a good chance they might be living the last 10 or 20 minutes of their lives. What would you do? Who would you try to contact? What would you say?? There's not enough time to try to flee, and where would you go on an island 20 miles across at its widest point if you don't know where the missile will detonate?

Get inside any bldg as fast as you can away from doors and windows. Bathrooms are good as they rarely have windows. Then bend over and kiss your ass goodbye.
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#9
Yazata Offline
(Jan 14, 2018 06:35 AM)stryder Wrote: "Keep Calm and Carry On"

I guess that's what many people in Hawaii did. Lots of people decided that everyone has to die sometime and figured it's cool to be in such a scenic place when it happens, so they kicked back with a view of the beach with a drink in their hand to await their fate.

But lots of other people panicked, some got hysterical and people were running around shouting while calmer ones filmed them on their cell-phones. It isn't clear that getting agitated is any more apt to help them survive than fatalistically shrugging at the whole thing.

Having a plan and executing it is probably the best idea, assuming that there's anything practical that one can do. The 'get in a bathtub' idea sounds good, despite few bathtubs being metal these days (they used to be like armor plate) if only because bathrooms are less apt to have windows. Putting a mattress atop you over the bathtub sounds good too. It won't stop a nuclear explosion but it will deflect flying debris if the explosion is further off.
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Quote:I've seen a similar state of panic when an Aircraft I was on developed an Engine fault...

I considered the point, "I'm on a plane, If it drops from the sky there is little if anything I can do.  So there is no point panicking, so I decided to get some kip (or at least try) as I considered if I was going to suffer an ill-fated flight I might as well be oblivious to it...

In essence if something is outside of your control, it's best just to continue living how you were or find somewhere quiet to get some shuteye.

I hear you. Airplanes give me that fatalistic feeling that my fate is largely out of my hands and that it hangs on a lot of engineering stuff that I don't entirely understand.
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#10
confused2 Offline
It isn't a proper covevgne unless people are running about expecting to die at at any moment.
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