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Shostak bets space aliens found by 2036 + Stingray nebula fades unexpectedly

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SETI astronomer bets you a cup of coffee that we find aliens by 2036
https://www.thedebrief.org/seti-astronom...s-by-2036/

EXCERPTS: SETI astronomer and astrophysicist Seth Shostak is convinced that humans will become aware of an intelligent extraterrestrial civilization by 2036. If he is wrong, he will buy you a Starbucks coffee. “SETI doubles in speed roughly every two years because the speed is largely dependent on computers,” Shostak told The Debrief in an interview last week. “So just follow Moore’s Law, and you know, I bet everybody a cup of Starbucks that we’ll find something by 2036.”

[...] SETI’s massive network of computers does all the listening. As those computers become better and faster, they can listen to more signals. “We don’t sit in front of the computers and look at the data. That would be kind of like watching millions of TV channels at the same time,” Shostak explained.

As computers become faster, SETI can actively monitor more channels simultaneously. [...] While some in the tech industry have claimed that Moore’s Law is no longer applicable due to changes in design, quantum computing, and even nano-biotechnology, the theory is still generally accepted. It is responsible for the speed at which technological development has occurred over the last several decades.

Shostak also pointed out that our general understanding of the cosmos has drastically changed over the last several years. “I think that the big thing that has happened over the past twenty years or so is the discovery of exoplanets. People know that that’s true. They know that we found lots of planets, and they know that planets are commonplace,” Shostak stated.

Shostak noted that there has always been a general optimism that someone else is out there. [...] Shostak hopes 2036 will be a pivotal year because SETI’s computers will have hopefully increased in speed and efficiency. “That’s when we will have looked at about a million star systems, and it’s my gut that says a million is the right number to find something,” Shostak explained... (MORE - details)


Leaving so soon? Unusual planetary nebula fades mere decades after it arrived
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/...120320.php

EXCERPTS: The tiny Stingray Nebula unexpectedly appeared in the 1980s and was first imaged by scientists in the 1990s using NASA's Hubble Space Telescope. It is by far the youngest planetary nebula in our sky. A team of astronomers recently analyzed a more recent image of the nebula, taken in 2016 by Hubble, and found something unexpected: As they report in a paper accepted to the Astrophysical Journal, the Stingray Nebula has faded significantly and changed shape over the course of just 20 years.

If dimming continues at current rates, in 20 or 30 years the Stingray Nebula will be barely perceptible, and was likely already fading when Hubble obtained the first clear images of it in 1996, according to lead author Bruce Balick, an emeritus professor of astronomy at UW.

"This is an unprecedented departure from typical behavior for a planetary nebula," said Balick. "Over time, we would expect it to imperceptibly brighten and expand, which could easily go unnoticed in a century or more. But here we're seeing the Stingray nebula fade significantly in an incredibly compressed time frame of just 20 years. Moreover, its brightest inner structure has contracted -- not expanded -- as the nebula fades."

Planetary nebulae form after most stars, including stars like our own sun, swell into red giants as they exhaust hydrogen fuel. At the end of the red giant phase, the star then expels large amounts of its outer material as it gradually -- over the course of a million years -- transforms into a small, compact white dwarf. The sloughed-off material expands outward for several thousand years while the star heats the material, which eventually becomes ionized and glows.

[...] Astronomers have yet to understand why SAO 244567 made the Stingray Nebula light up and then fade almost as quickly. One theory, posited by a team led by Nicole Reindl at the University of Potsdam, is that the star underwent a brief burst of fresh helium fusion around its core, which stirred up its outer layers and caused its surface to both shrink and heat. If so, then as its outer layers settle back down, the star may return to a more typical transition from red giant to white dwarf. Only future observations of the star and its nebula can confirm this... (MORE - details)
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