Oct 3, 2020 04:00 AM
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tru...president/
EXCERPTS: . . . Though Trump is in overall good health according to his publicly released annual physicals (which, it’s worth noting, only includes details at the discretion of the president’s doctor), he has a few risk factors that increase the odds of a severe infection, hospitalization, and death. He is 74 years old, male, and obese — at 6 feet, 3 inches tall and 244 pounds, his body mass index is 30.5, just over the line for the definition of obesity. While Trump doesn’t have hypertension, his latest physical said his blood pressure is 121 over 79, which is considered “elevated.” But just how risky are these factors?
Let’s start with age. When it comes to COVID-19, the older you are, the more elevated your risk of severe illness, hospitalization, ventilation and death. [...] “Even when controlling for a huge number of comorbidities, age is still the most important predictor of death,” said Marm Kilpatrick, an infectious disease biologist at the University of California, Santa Cruz. ... Patients aged 70-79 were 6.07 times more likely to die of COVID-19 than those 50-59, and patients over 80 were 20.6 times more likely to die compared to the 50-somethings.
In the U.S., 8 out of 10 COVID-19-related deaths have been in adults age 65 and older [...] Older people tend to have a higher prevalence of underlying illnesses that we know increase risk, along with declining immune responses. Being a man also puts Trump at a higher risk of adverse effects ... n the U.S., nearly 1.5 times more men than women in Trump’s age cohort have died because of COVID-19...
Lastly, we know that the president’s weight also likely puts him at a greater risk of a severe or deadly bout of COVID-19. [...] people with obesity who contracted COVID-19 were 113 percent more likely to be hospitalized, 74 percent more likely to be admitted to an ICU, and 48 percent more likely to die...
[...] But the president is, well, the president. And while his biology may be putting him in a riskier category, his social status is working in his favor. ... “If anyone has better odds of surviving than any other 74-year-old with his characteristics, it’s probably the president of the United States,” said Andrew Azman, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University.
Right now, the president reportedly has only mild symptoms and we can assume he is under constant, high-quality medical care. Those are things that could indicate a milder course of the disease, Azman said. [...] “Our best guess is the population average for people that look like him,” Azman said. “But we know that he is not the average person.” (MORE - details)
EXCERPTS: . . . Though Trump is in overall good health according to his publicly released annual physicals (which, it’s worth noting, only includes details at the discretion of the president’s doctor), he has a few risk factors that increase the odds of a severe infection, hospitalization, and death. He is 74 years old, male, and obese — at 6 feet, 3 inches tall and 244 pounds, his body mass index is 30.5, just over the line for the definition of obesity. While Trump doesn’t have hypertension, his latest physical said his blood pressure is 121 over 79, which is considered “elevated.” But just how risky are these factors?
Let’s start with age. When it comes to COVID-19, the older you are, the more elevated your risk of severe illness, hospitalization, ventilation and death. [...] “Even when controlling for a huge number of comorbidities, age is still the most important predictor of death,” said Marm Kilpatrick, an infectious disease biologist at the University of California, Santa Cruz. ... Patients aged 70-79 were 6.07 times more likely to die of COVID-19 than those 50-59, and patients over 80 were 20.6 times more likely to die compared to the 50-somethings.
In the U.S., 8 out of 10 COVID-19-related deaths have been in adults age 65 and older [...] Older people tend to have a higher prevalence of underlying illnesses that we know increase risk, along with declining immune responses. Being a man also puts Trump at a higher risk of adverse effects ... n the U.S., nearly 1.5 times more men than women in Trump’s age cohort have died because of COVID-19...
Lastly, we know that the president’s weight also likely puts him at a greater risk of a severe or deadly bout of COVID-19. [...] people with obesity who contracted COVID-19 were 113 percent more likely to be hospitalized, 74 percent more likely to be admitted to an ICU, and 48 percent more likely to die...
[...] But the president is, well, the president. And while his biology may be putting him in a riskier category, his social status is working in his favor. ... “If anyone has better odds of surviving than any other 74-year-old with his characteristics, it’s probably the president of the United States,” said Andrew Azman, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University.
Right now, the president reportedly has only mild symptoms and we can assume he is under constant, high-quality medical care. Those are things that could indicate a milder course of the disease, Azman said. [...] “Our best guess is the population average for people that look like him,” Azman said. “But we know that he is not the average person.” (MORE - details)
