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4 ways Brexit transition period could be extended after deadline (alt possibilities)

#1
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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po...39586.html

INTRO: The UK and EU are negotiating a trade deal and have until the end of the year to do it. If nothing is agreed by 1 January, the UK will crash out of the single market without a deal. That is, unless there’s an extension to the Brexit transition period Britain is currently in. It sounds simple, but there’s a catch: the deadline to agree such an extension to the transition is just a month away.

Battle-scarred from the last-minute decisions that characterised the first phase of Brexit talks, the UK and EU agreed to set the deadline for an extension six months in advance of the actual break, to avoid a cliff edge and give countries and businesses time to prepare for a no deal.

It was well-intentioned. Surely this would remove uncertainty? But it may end up doing exactly the opposite. There’s always been scepticism about whether the end of June really is a deadline. Of course, in EU law, it is absolutely the last time the transition can be extended. And the UK swears blind it won’t extend for any reason – as it did every other time until the last minute.

It’s also clear that Article 50, the terms under which the original deal was drawn up, is now useless to get Britain out of this situation – it only applies to departing member states, which the UK is no longer.

But where there’s a will, there is usually a way. A new report by experts at the Institute for Government spells out four ways the UK and EU could extend the transition once the June deadline has past... (MORE - details)

THE OPTIONS EXPLORED: [1] Change the date in the withdrawal agreement .... [2] Create a new transition period to begin on 1 January 2021 .... [3] Put an implementation phase in the future relationship treaty ... [4] Set up an implementation phase to prepare for no deal

ORIGINAL PAPER: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.u...-more-time
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#2
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Boris Johnson's Brexit nightmare is back at the worst possible moment
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/01/uk/boris-...index.html

EXCERPT: June is [...] a make or break month in the UK's post-Brexit negotiations with the European Union. Johnson, the architect of Brexit, has made such firm commitments to not extend the transition period that he simply cannot afford any capitulation -- especially with his mounting domestic issues. Weakness is not an option. Here's where things stand: The UK formally left the EU on January 31. Since then, it has been in a transition period where it still obeys EU rules in exchange for business as usual in key areas, most notably trade.

The whole point of the transition period was to create a space where both sides could safely negotiate their future relationship without causing disruption to businesses and citizens. However, that transition period ends on December 31 and sources on both sides say that those negotiations are not going very well.

The pandemic hasn't helped the political deadlock. The negotiating teams have been unable to physically meet, relying on videoconferencing tools instead. The next round of virtual talks begins Tuesday, but sources on both sides have said this has damaged the quality of the negotiations, as individuals are unable to split off for private chats about how to resolve thorny issues. And the scale of the coronavirus crisis has overshadowed the urgency of Brexit talks. Johnson must now spend June with one eye on complicated and fraught negotiations with the largest trading bloc in the world, while also overseeing the response to the country's worst public health crisis in decades.

Both sides agreed that June would be used as a period to reflect on if there is a deal in sight, or whether they should respectfully put a bullet in the talks and prepare for a no-deal scenario.
No deal is almost universally accepted as the worst possible outcome. The British economy relies heavily on imports from Europe. Maximum disruption to this trade would affect supply chains -- making life hell for businesses, such as car manufacturers, that rely on them and leading to potential shortages on household essentials, like food, for consumers. Numerous studies have predicted that it would be a huge economic hit on both households and the nation at large.

Despite neither the UK or EU claiming to want this outcome, negotiators fear the political deadlock means it's becoming increasingly likely... (MORE - details)
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