Jan 8, 2020 08:41 AM
https://theconversation.com/will-ai-take...ise-126567
EXCERPT (Mauro Vallati): . . . Recent theories in physics suggest the universe is extremely chaotic and random. [...] Assuming these theories are correct, they suggest that, beyond a certain level of detail, the universe is ultimately unpredictable, chaotic and unstable. This would mean that any sort of growing intelligence would eventually reach a point where it can no longer improve its predictions of the future and so cannot further increase in intelligence.
In other words, there is no risk of a runaway AI, because physical laws of the universe pose some very constraining hard limits. For instance, given the known limits on weather predictability, an AI system will not be able to outsmart humans by exploiting extremely accurate long-term weather forecasts for planning future actions.
It is very comforting to believe that the nature of the universe is, in some sense, preventing an AI escalation. But there is an alternative perspective. What if humans perceive the universe as random and chaotic only because our cognitive and reasoning capabilities are too limited? We are aware of some of the limits of human understanding but, to paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, we don’t know what we don’t know.
Taking this perspective, it may be the case that the universe is instead deterministic, and therefore fully predictable, but in an extremely complex way that we as humans cannot grasp. Albert Einstein argued that quantum theory was an incomplete description of the universe [...] That would turn the table on the possibility of an AI singularity. A super-advanced intelligence could be in the position to reveal these hidden variables and so understand the predictable nature of the universe, unleashing the machine’s full potential. It’s worth noting that AI approaches are already used for automatically making discoveries in physics.
On a practical level, the singularity doesn’t seem that plausible given how limited AI actually still is... (MORE - details)
EXCERPT (Mauro Vallati): . . . Recent theories in physics suggest the universe is extremely chaotic and random. [...] Assuming these theories are correct, they suggest that, beyond a certain level of detail, the universe is ultimately unpredictable, chaotic and unstable. This would mean that any sort of growing intelligence would eventually reach a point where it can no longer improve its predictions of the future and so cannot further increase in intelligence.
In other words, there is no risk of a runaway AI, because physical laws of the universe pose some very constraining hard limits. For instance, given the known limits on weather predictability, an AI system will not be able to outsmart humans by exploiting extremely accurate long-term weather forecasts for planning future actions.
It is very comforting to believe that the nature of the universe is, in some sense, preventing an AI escalation. But there is an alternative perspective. What if humans perceive the universe as random and chaotic only because our cognitive and reasoning capabilities are too limited? We are aware of some of the limits of human understanding but, to paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, we don’t know what we don’t know.
Taking this perspective, it may be the case that the universe is instead deterministic, and therefore fully predictable, but in an extremely complex way that we as humans cannot grasp. Albert Einstein argued that quantum theory was an incomplete description of the universe [...] That would turn the table on the possibility of an AI singularity. A super-advanced intelligence could be in the position to reveal these hidden variables and so understand the predictable nature of the universe, unleashing the machine’s full potential. It’s worth noting that AI approaches are already used for automatically making discoveries in physics.
On a practical level, the singularity doesn’t seem that plausible given how limited AI actually still is... (MORE - details)