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If we all ate enough fruits & vegetables, there'd be big shortages

#1
C C Offline
https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/201...-shortages

EXCERPT: If everyone around the globe began to eat the recommended amounts of fruits and vegetables, there wouldn't be enough to go around. That's the conclusion of a new study published in The Lancet Planetary Health. Currently, only about 55% of people around the globe live in countries with adequate availability of fruits and vegetables [...] With economic growth, presumably, production will expand. But the researchers project that by 2050, an estimated 1.5 billion more people will live in places with insufficient supply – unless challenges such as food waste and improved productivity are solved.

The report comes at a time when poor diets are a leading cause of premature death. In fact, a recent study found diets are now responsible for more deaths than smoking around the globe. [...] "Current diets are detrimental to both human and planetary health and shifting towards more balanced, predominantly plant-based diets is seen as crucial to improving both," write the authors of the new Lancet Planetary Health study. Currently, the global supply of calories is more than enough to meet consumption. But many people eat poor-quality diets ... These factors promote obesity – so we now live in a world where many people are simultaneously overweight and malnourished...

[...] The authors argue that several actions are needed to meet the challenges: increased investments in fruit and vegetable production; increased efforts to educate people about the importance of healthy diets; and – given that about one-third of food produced globally is wasted – new technologies and practices to reduce food waste. The predictions for fruit and vegetable shortfalls are based on modeling. The researchers draw on food production data, but there is uncertainty in their estimates, given factors such as a lack of data on global waste.

[...] The report spells out other fixes, too, including reducing the use of biofuels that divert edible crops to produce energy and reducing food waste... Yet another proposed fix: Nudge people toward a more plant-centered diet. Currently, agriculture uses nearly half of the globe's vegetated land – and at least 30 percent of all cropland is used to grow feed for animals. The resource intensiveness of meat production is a leading cause of deforestation. If current trends continue, the WRI report estimates that we'd need an extra 593 million hectares – an area that is almost twice the size of India — to feed the population in 2050. [...] the report concludes that we would have to clear most of the globe's remaining forests to feed the world. ...

Demand for meat is growing as more people, in more countries, can afford it. The WRI estimates that if people in the U.S. and other heavy meat-eating countries reduced their consumption of beef (and other meat from ruminants) to about 1.5 burgers per person, per week, it would "nearly eliminate the need for additional agricultural expansion (and associated deforestation), even in a world with 10 billion people." (MORE - details)
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#2
RainbowUnicorn Offline
(Jul 18, 2019 02:22 AM)C C Wrote: https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/201...-shortages

EXCERPT: If everyone around the globe began to eat the recommended amounts of fruits and vegetables, there wouldn't be enough to go around. That's the conclusion of a new study published in The Lancet Planetary Health. Currently, only about 55% of people around the globe live in countries with adequate availability of fruits and vegetables [...] With economic growth, presumably, production will expand. But the researchers project that by 2050, an estimated 1.5 billion more people will live in places with insufficient supply – unless challenges such as food waste and improved productivity are solved.

The report comes at a time when poor diets are a leading cause of premature death. In fact, a recent study found diets are now responsible for more deaths than smoking around the globe. [...] "Current diets are detrimental to both human and planetary health and shifting towards more balanced, predominantly plant-based diets is seen as crucial to improving both," write the authors of the new Lancet Planetary Health study. Currently, the global supply of calories is more than enough to meet consumption. But many people eat poor-quality diets ... These factors promote obesity – so we now live in a world where many people are simultaneously overweight and malnourished...

[...] The authors argue that several actions are needed to meet the challenges: increased investments in fruit and vegetable production; increased efforts to educate people about the importance of healthy diets; and – given that about one-third of food produced globally is wasted – new technologies and practices to reduce food waste. The predictions for fruit and vegetable shortfalls are based on modeling. The researchers draw on food production data, but there is uncertainty in their estimates, given factors such as a lack of data on global waste.

[...] The report spells out other fixes, too, including reducing the use of biofuels that divert edible crops to produce energy and reducing food waste... Yet another proposed fix: Nudge people toward a more plant-centered diet. Currently, agriculture uses nearly half of the globe's vegetated land – and at least 30 percent of all cropland is used to grow feed for animals. The resource intensiveness of meat production is a leading cause of deforestation. If current trends continue, the WRI report estimates that we'd need an extra 593 million hectares – an area that is almost twice the size of India — to feed the population in 2050. [...] the report concludes that we would have to clear most of the globe's remaining forests to feed the world. ...

Demand for meat is growing as more people, in more countries, can afford it. The WRI estimates that if people in the U.S. and other heavy meat-eating countries reduced their consumption of beef (and other meat from ruminants) to about 1.5 burgers per person, per week, it would "nearly eliminate the need for additional agricultural expansion (and associated deforestation), even in a world with 10 billion people." (MORE - details)

Quote:heavy meat-eating countries

Taiwan

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_sw...irus#China

Quote:Vietnam

Vietnam confirmed its first case of African swine fever in hogs on 19 February, 2019. As of 4 July 2019, more than 3,000,000 hogs have been culled[54].



Quote:The report spells out other fixes, too, including reducing the use of biofuels that divert edible crops to produce energy

Quote:https://www.technologyreview.com/s/42338...od-prices/

Does ethanol production affect food prices?

The increased production of ethanol has a large impact on corn prices, not only because it's a major source of demand, but also because the demand is fixed. ... But the ethanol mandates will help keep corn prices higher than they have been in the past. The “new normal” will be something like $3 to $4 a bushel, he says.Mar 23, 2011


Quote:The authors argue that several actions are needed to meet the challenges: increased investments in fruit and vegetable production;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colony_collapse_disorder
Quote:Bee rental for pollination is a crucial element of U.S. agriculture, which could not produce anywhere near its current levels with native pollinators alone.[169]


http://www.bbc.co.uk/guides/zg4dwmn

[Image: large]
[Image: large]

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#3
Zinjanthropos Offline
There’s always yummy tree bark to satisfy your hunger.

https://www.offthegridnews.com/extreme-s...ival-food/

If all the land is used for plant production, and we’re all vegetarians then what happens to all the livestock or possibly even wild animals when we take their land? If wildlife is being squeezed now, what’s in store for them in a future vegetarian world?
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#4
C C Offline
(Jul 18, 2019 06:23 PM)Zinjanthropos Wrote: . . . If all the land is used for plant production, and we’re all vegetarians then what happens to all the livestock or possibly even wild animals when we take their land? If wildlife is being squeezed now, what’s in store for them in a future vegetarian world?


If cellular agriculture (lab-grown meat) takes off, they'll fade away eventually, anyhow.

For recreational and competitive purposes, a ridiculously fewer number of pedigreed livestock will persist in the purebred industry for exhibition in connoisseur breed shows.That is, if animal rights extremists don't prematurely put an end to that last remaining slot where they could survive.

Even deeper into the future, some products like leather goods, eggs, and wool may still not be adequately replaced by synthetic means to every consumer's satisfaction, so there would be those diminished commercial lingerers.
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#5
Seattle Offline
If current demand is being met, who is to say that if demand increased, supply wouldn't as well?
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#6
confused2 Offline
Z Wrote:If all the land is used for plant production, and we’re all vegetarians then what happens to all the livestock or possibly even wild animals when we take their land? If wildlife is being squeezed now, what’s in store for them in a future vegetarian world?
This looks like the start of a fake news story to me. You have a cow wandering about for three or four years eating vegetables - then you kill the cow and eat the cow. OR. You eat the vegetables that grow on the same patch of land that the cow lived on. After (say) four years would eating the cow provide more or less nourishment than eating the vegetables without the cow being involved?
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