BFR Developments

[Ostronomos]

WELL SHIT BITCH! IMMA SHUT UP MA MAAAN (TAKE IT TO THE HIZZAY).

[C C]

Update 10:45 AM CDT: Mary has received the Boca Chica evacuation warning and is leaving. So they do plan to try to fly later today.

Update 12:00 AM CDT: Canada's musical astronaut Chris Hadfield is watching Lab's cams

https://twitter.com/Cmdr_Hadfield/status...8587284489

Just glancing at the view, looks like the fog, mist, or whatever that was has dissipated on the ground. Though maybe it's still murky above. (Uhn... NASA is still showing it, though. Maybe LabPadre uses a filter for clearer shots, or something.)

EDIT: Obscuring shroud has returned now, on even LabPadre. Flight scrubbed. Next attempt Monday.

2nd EDIT: Does SpaceX ever pay attention to weather forecasts well in advance, or are the long-term predictions by meteorologists in that area simply that bad -- not acquiring accuracy until within a few hours of the actual circumstances themselves developing?

[Magical Realist]

They're saying it was the SpaceX Falcon 9 booster rocket that was seen in all it's firey glory last night over Oregon. Click on the video in the link for footage of incident.

https://kmph.com/news/local/strange-fire...N9Z61frSW8

[Yazata]

Update 10:45 AM CDT: Mary has received the Boca Chica evacuation warning and is leaving. So they do plan to try to fly later today.

Update 12:00 AM CDT: Canada's musical astronaut Chris Hadfield is watching Lab's cams

https://twitter.com/Cmdr_Hadfield/status...8587284489

Just glancing at the view, looks like the fog, mist, or whatever that was has dissipated on the ground. Though maybe it's still murky above. (Uhn... NASA is still showing it, though. Maybe LabPadre uses a filter for clearer shots, or something.)

Lab and NSF both have multiple cams. And both found that the cams further away were a lot more hazy than the ones close up. Jack Beyer was in South Padre Island about 5 miles away and couldn't really see anything. Cameras where Mary was next to the closest roadblock where they would let her be were heavily fogged out too. Lab has remote controlled robot cams on a tower about halfway between the build area and the launch area as well as his remote controlled Padcam right across the road from the launch site. (That was the one that SpaceX security removed, then returned with apologies when Elon personally intervened.)   

EDIT: Obscuring shroud has returned now, on even LabPadre. Flight scrubbed. Next attempt Monday.

It's paradoxical for me to say it, but I was both disappointed and happy that the flight has slipped to Monday. Disappointed because I wanted it to fly as smoothly and trouble free as possible, but happy because I was busy Friday afternoon and couldn't watch. Monday will be much better for me. I can watch on my big TV and on my computer with half a dozen tabs open showing all the streams. (I like to hop back and forth between them.)

2nd EDIT: Does SpaceX ever pay attention to weather forecasts well in advance, or are the long-term predictions by meteorologists in that area simply that bad -- not acquiring accuracy until within a few hours of the actual circumstances themselves developing?

There's a whole dedicated Space Force squadron at Cape Canaveral (the 45th Weather Squadron) tasked with producing weather forecasts for launches. All that Elon has are the normal National Weather Service forecasts. Plus the kind of forecasts that one finds at weather websites on the internet that are produced by computers rather than by human meteorologists.

But that being said, rumor has it that what scrubbed the launch wasn't just weather, there was was some other technical problem as well. The lifts certainly spent a lot of time up by the FTS plastic explosive charges, and one of the workers was seen with what looked like a phone pressed to his ear talking to somebody, so speculation is that they had some kind of problem arming them. (That can normally be done quickly and doesn't take an hour or more.) The FAA would never let it fly without a functioning flight termination system. (A basic safety measure required of all large rockets.) So that may have been a contributing factor in why they scrubbed it.

[Yazata]

Unlimited altitude flight TFRs announced for Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday. Coast Guard has issued a notice to mariners.

Elon says "Possible Starship flight tomorrow afternoon"

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1376235871989551105

There's concern in the space-nerd community about weather tomorrow though. May slip to Tuesday or Wed.

[Yazata]

Flaps no longer tied down. FTS appears to be successfully armed. The closest roadblock is being set up.

Still awaiting Boca Chica evacuation. Rumor that something has delayed it.

Lab is still concerned about the weather.

Lab's nerdle cam (a 'nerdle' is a herd of nerds)

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/sTA0GTgFn5E

The nsf stream

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/XCUGKZFIcxk

Lab's padcam

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/qCbgoqMcirI

---

Update: FLIGHT SCRUBBED

Verified by SpaceX. According to Elon, vehicle is healthy and reason for scrub is that FAA managers unable to reach Boca Chica in time for launch.

Federal government has taken a new tone in the last few months and wants to demonstrate its supremacy over a mere private corporation (spit that last word out, we all know that corporations are evil... don't we?) So the new line is that nothing happens without them in charge.

Recycling to launch no earlier than tomorrow.

[C C]

Update: FLIGHT SCRUBBED

Verified by SpaceX. According to Elon, vehicle is healthy and reason for scrub is that FAA managers unable to reach Boca Chica in time for launch.

Federal government has taken a new tone in the last few months and wants to demonstrate its supremacy over a mere private corporation (spit that last word out, we all know that corporations are evil... don't we?) So the new line is that nothing happens without them in charge.

Recycling to launch no earlier than tomorrow.

In addition to competent meteorology, looks like SpaceX could benefit from bureaucratic behavior forecasting. Though I doubt that a reliable algorithm could ever be achievable even with big data and machine learning.

[Zinjanthropos]

In addition to competent meteorology, looks like SpaceX could benefit from bureaucratic behavior forecasting. Though I doubt that a reliable algorithm could ever be achievable even with big data and machine learning.

Been waiting for a chance to use this:

Easier sailing a container ship sideways down the Suez Canal, than it is avoiding bureaucracy.

[C C]

Now either an invisible crash landing or an invisible explosion in flight of SN11 to add to the repertoire: https://youtu.be/Be68vd59ZnU

One step forward, two steps back -- following the half successful landing of SN10, that was marred only by a hard touchdown and a self-destructive blast several minutes later.

"Elon Musk has apparently confirmed that SpaceX’s Starship (SN11) has been destroyed. [...] 'At least the crater is in the right place!' he then posted, seemingly confirming what appeared to be a large explosion, and suggesting that it had not caused critical damage as it did. In a more detailed tweet, he said that 'something significant' had happened to bring about the problems – but that it was not clear what that problem was. 'Looks like engine 2 had issues on ascent & didn’t reach operating chamber pressure during landing burn, but, in theory, it wasn’t needed,' he wrote. 'Something significant happened shortly after landing burn start. Should know what it was once we can examine the bits later today.'"
- - -

(UPDATE?) Space Flight Insider: Spaceflight Insider’s Nicholas D’Alessandro was on site to capture the launch and although the fog blocked visibility, the audio very clearly indicated a mid-air explosion after re-light with a loud sharp “BANG” a split second after the sound of the Raptors re-igniting for landing. Other cameras in the area showed an orange glow a fraction of a second after the Raptors began to ignite for the landing-flip maneuver, followed by the loud explosion and debris beginning to rain down all across the launch and landing area. It’s unclear whether that explosion was from a Raptor or the vehicle’s flight termination system. What is clear, however, is Starship SN11 did not come close to landing and instead performed a “rapid unscheduled disassembly”, or RUD.
- - -

Twitter link: "This morning’s explosion, however, appears to have been particularly heavy, with debris raining down from the skies a great distance from the launch pad. Case in point, one spectator was able to recover a piece of debris from the lost rocket an astonishing five miles from where it launched, according to CNBC reporter Michael Sheetz."

The debris shower of SN11

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/A9RSt_0hDoI

Almost 16 minutes of unsatisfactory camera footage due to fog, dropouts & freezes
(Jump slightly ahead: Actually starts circa the 1:30 minute mark)

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/gjCSJIAKEPM

[Yazata]

John Insprucker was being a little coy when has repeatedly called it an "exciting" test. He must have known that telemetry stopped soon after the video did and may have known about the rain of steel from the sky.

Right now, metal fragments are strewn all over the road across the street from the launch area. (CC's video shows the rain of shrapnel.) There's what looks like a Raptor engine lying in the road with a group of SpaceX engineers and technicians gathered around it. There's what looks like a fin further down the road.

Some of the metal fragments that landed around the cameras were big. One appeared to be a part of the engine skirt with a landing leg still attached. Das on nsf was calling their padcam "dangercam".

The best theory on what happened that I've heard comes from a post on the nsf forums by a guy who works at Kennedy Space Center. He says that the talk at KSC is that two of the three engines failed to relight (the SpaceX video seems to verify that), Sn11 was unable to perform its flip maneuver, and the flight termination system auto-activated its explosive charges.

There are at least two reports of debris falling in South Padre Island five miles away, apparently light insulating material in both cases. But it isn't verified that it was rocket debris or whether it was just stuff found on the ground unrelated to the rocket.

The tankfarm and the orbital launch site construction areas appear undamaged. And more importantly, Hoppy is fine. But nsf's, Lab's and Tim Dodds' cameras all appear to have taken hits. They took a lickin' but they're still tickin'. Apart from that, no indications of injuries or any property damage to anyone apart from SpaceX.

I think that we can be certain that the FAA will open an investigation though.