BFR Developments

[Yazata]

Boca Chica resident Nomadd reports that SpaceX has informed him that the static fire was good and that a Monday flight is a possibility but not a certainty. I'm guessing that they don't want to rush preparations. It could slip to Tuesday or Wednesday.

Edit: Boca Chica Maria (not the same person as Mary) says that she was told to be ready to evacuate by 7 AM Monday. That's probably consistent with what Nomadd was told, and he chose to emphasize the 'be ready to' part while Maria emphasized the '7 AM' part. As far as I know, no definitive word yet on whether the evacuation will actually be necessary Monday.

And last night Lab Padre's 24 hour live stream cams caught them installing FTS (flight termination system) plastic explosive charges on Eileen in case she goes out of control and veers towards a populated area. Explosives are only installed when flight is immanent to reduce danger to workers, another good indication that something will happen soon.

No new road closures have been announced, but flight tfrs (clearing airspace to unlimited altitude) remain in effect for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

Looks like things externally are in waiting mode, while internally they are probably in checking-off the checklist items mode.

In other news, they seem to have abandoned the idea of building SN12, 13 and 14. It looks like the unassembled parts for 13 and 14 are being scrapped. Instead they are powering on to SN15, 16 and 17. It's already known that there are significant modifications starting on SN15. (One change is a redesigned thrust dome and simplified propellant plumbing. Another might be heat-shield tiles.) So it looks like they don't want to waste too much effort with old-design Starships and would prefer that their tests be of the current design. But they seem to want to perfect landing and recovery with the earlier more basic ones before they risk the more elaborate ones. They already have SN10 completed in the High Bay, the SN11 tank section is complete in the mid-bay, with its nose ready to be mated with it, and they still have many of the parts for SN12 in reserve I think, so there's no shortage of backup Starships in case Eileen is lost. SN15 is currently being stacked in the Mid Bay while BN1, the first SuperHeavy, stacks in the High Bay. My expectation is that once landing and recovery are perfected, SN15 and its successor Starships will turn their attention to expanding the envelope to supersonic flight, suborbital spaceflights (up to the Karman line) and atmospheric reentry. There will have to be some hop tests with the early Superheavies, then fully-stacked orbital flights are somewhere down the line, perhaps even by the end of the year. The biggest remaining challenge is probably reentry from orbital velocity. I suspect that we are likely to see a few Columbia style breakup fireball disasters before they perfect orbital reentry at mach 25. (The Space Shuttle nailed it on the first try.)

[Yazata]

The plot becomes more convoluted! Mary has received a warning notice for Monday, but it's "merely" one of the by-now-familiar "overpressure" notices.

https://twitter.com/BocaChicaGal/status/...72/photo/1

Three new road closures have been announced, for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. But the Monday closure is different than the other two, running from 12 noon to 6 PM while Tuesday and Wednesday are 8 AM to 5 PM.

It sounds like another static fire, except that word from multiple sources is that they liked the results of the last one.

[speculation]Maybe what they liked was how the engines started up and shut down, but they are still tinkering with the tank pressurization or something like that, that might require another static fire to observe the effects of some change on fuel feed or whatever.[/speculation]

All that anyone can do in the circumstances is generate WAGs. The result is nobody is sure what is going to happen tomorrow. I guess we will have to watch in order to find out. (Like an old movie cliffhanger where the heroine is left tied to the railroad tracks in the last episode...)

Edit: Still no resolution of the mystery of Monday. But the Coast Guard in Corpus Christi has issued this warning to mariners saying that SpaceX has informed them of launch activities during daylight hours on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday.

http://www.qualityapps.com/Contents/Comm...an2021.pdf

[Yazata]

I don't really expect a flight today, mainly because Boca residents haven't been told to evacuate. However they've been told to stand by for an update later this morning.

At 8:22 AM Hoppy announced this (as overheard by Lab Padre's Pad Cam):

"Attention on Pad A we're targeting the hands-off be by 10am in order to step into press-vent cycles, TVC check outs and Raptor check outs by 10am. Thank you"

Thank you for keeping us informed, Hoppy!

Edit: A mariner's alert is going out over marine radio

https://twitter.com/SpacePadreIsle/statu...3902631938

[Yazata]

Reports that they are currently conducting a Flight Readiness Review. If they decide to fly today, the word to evacuate Boca Chica will go out immediately.

Edit: Jack Beyer reports that the Sheriffs are clearing the beach, so apparently something is planned for today.

Hoppy just made another announcement through its loudspeakers -- Hand's off in 30 minutes.

Word is leaking out that FRR decision is Go Flight! for this afternoon. Sheriff's barricades are going up.

Edit 12:30 CST - Pad still not clear. Police roadblocks are in place but they are letting SpaceX cars in and out. Have yet to see them removing flap tie-downs and the safety pins from the flight termination charges. Most obvious problem is high wind that might make them scrub today's attempt. It's kind of borderline.

Edit: 1:40 PM CST - Still lots of cars at the pad. As of last word, Mary still hasn't been told to evacuate.

Edit: 2:00 PM CST - Mary says they just told her that the village won't be evacuated today. So there apparently won't be a flight today.

https://twitter.com/BocaChicaGal/status/...3178937345

Lab Padre says that he heard that the flight was scrubbed because of high winds.

[Yazata]

Looks like flight may be several days off, due to weather. They are taking advantage of the time to do other things.

Today that's a pressure-test-to-failure of their new test tank 7.2. That's intended to see whether they can hold and maintain suitable pressure with thinner steel in order to cut weight. (If they can trim ten tons off the rocket structure, then that's ten more tons of payload to orbit.)

So 7.1 is currently covered in frost and is venting crazily. It's expected to blow up shortly.

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/Z72Au8Px7mM

[confused2]

Looks like flight may be several days off, due to weather. They are taking advantage of the time to do other things.

Today that's a pressure-test-to-failure of their new test tank 7.2. That's intended to see whether they can hold and maintain suitable pressure with thinner steel in order to cut weight. (If they can trim ten tons off the rocket structure, then that's ten more tons of payload to orbit.)

So 7.1 is currently covered in frost and is venting crazily. It's expected to blow up shortly.

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/Z72Au8Px7mM

A few hours later - looks like they're emptying it . Test to fail is kind'a fun to watch (glued to screen) but test and pass is even better.

[Yazata]

A few hours later - looks like they're emptying it . Test to fail is kind'a fun to watch (glued to screen) but test and pass is even better.

Elon verifies that it passed.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1354172189679955970

[C C]

[...] Today that's a pressure-test-to-failure of their new test tank 7.2. That's intended to see whether they can hold and maintain suitable pressure with thinner steel in order to cut weight. (If they can trim ten tons off the rocket structure, then that's ten more tons of payload to orbit.) ...

Kind of dents the perception that engineers can assess on paper or computer the necessary requirements that an _X_ must conform to, in advance of real world results. Such actually must be the case when it comes to many things that can't be reasonably redone once erected, but that's apparently where over-engineering comes into the picture safeguard wise. Better to cater to excessive standards than risk the disaster of under-engineering. With the way SpaceX does things, though, the opportunity exists to refine and pinpoint an in-between criterion.

[Yazata]

Mary reports that she has received a familiar "overpressure" warning for tomorrow. She also says that she was told that the village may have to evacuate tomorrow. I've heard elsewhere that the word is that residents should be prepared to be out of town by 10 am local time. Just prepared, since it isn't for sure yet.

https://twitter.com/BocaChicaGal/status/...9952555012

Complicating matters is the fact that Bluto the Giant Crane rode its SPMTs down to the launch site yesterday after 7.2 had its brush with death. Will they really launch Sn9 with the crane close by? Or will they end up doing something else tomorrow? Another pressure test on 7.2 to really see what they can crank it up to? There's even speculation that Sn10 might be moved to the other pad tomorrow. But would they really want to risk damaging shiny new Sn10 if Sn9's flight goes awry?

Elon probably is laughing maniacally at all the consternation that he's causing.

[Yazata]

Latest is that Boca Chica residents have been told to evacuate by 8:00 am CST.

Source: Boca Chica resident Mary

https://twitter.com/BocaChicaGal/status/...0728704002

Other rumors from out of SpaceX certainly make it look like a flight tomorrow is planned. Still don't know what's up with Bluto the giant crane.

Mary's gonna be busy livestreaming along with nasaspaceflight.com. Here:

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/n5kVZlnHZ3o

LabPadre already has his streams going 24/7. They will have good commentary closer to launch

His remote control "nerdle cam" (a 'nerdle' is a herd of nerds)

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/Ky5l9ZxsG9M

Lab Padre's launch pad cam is here. This remote controlled camera is right across the road from the launch site.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z72Au8Px7mM&t=0s

And Lab has several more cameras watching from different angles, pointed at the road blocks and at the build area etc. You can find links to them in the text below the pictures on the youtube pages. (Lab is really his name, or at least his initials. Padre from where he lives, South Padre Island.)

Tim Dodd will have a stream on his channel here --

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC6uKrU_...HMTY3LIx5Q

Felix at What About It should be streaming here

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1XvxnH...9egyFasP1Q