Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

The odds of you being alive

#1
Magical Realist Offline
http://www.businessinsider.com/infograph...ive-2012-6

"It turns out the chances of you existing are infinitely tiny. But just how small?

Dr. Ali Binazir illustrates the extremely unlikely chain of events that would have to occur in order for you to be born with this example in a blog post:

'Imagine there was one life preserver thrown somewhere in some ocean and there is exactly one turtle in all of these oceans, swimming underwater somewhere. The probability that you came about and exist today is the same as that turtle sticking its head out of the water — in the middle of that life preserver. On one try.'

Dr. Binazir has crunched the exact numbers shown in the infographic below.

The path begins with the odds of your dad meeting your mom (1 in 20,000). This is multiplied by the chances of them staying together long enough to have kids (1 in 2,000), and so on...

The probability of you existing at all comes out to 1 in 10 2,685,000— yes, that's a 10 followed by 2,685,000 zeroes!

Binazir concludes that the odds of you being alive are basically zero..."
Reply
#2
Yazata Offline
While Binazir thinks that the odds approach zero, I think that they approach 100%.

That's because I think that the circumstances of my life define who I am. I'm a biological male with these particular parents, that particular childhood, these interests, those friends, and so on. As far as I'm concerned there isn't any inherent soul-like essence-of-me to which my personal identity inheres, rather it's my history and circumstances that have shaped me and made me who I am.

If the circumstances were more than trivially different, then I would be somebody else.

That's how I conceive of it.

(Which casts doubt on trans-world identity in those many-worlds possible-worlds schemes.)
Reply
#3
Syne Offline
(Feb 25, 2018 03:51 AM)Yazata Wrote: (Which casts doubt on trans-world identity in those many-worlds possible-worlds schemes.)

I think belief in a soul would cast doubt on that as well.
Reply


Possibly Related Threads…
Thread Author Replies Views Last Post
  Statistical analysis reveals odds of life evolving on alien worlds C C 0 132 May 21, 2020 04:49 AM
Last Post: C C
  The odds of stopping North Korean nuclear missiles C C 6 727 Dec 5, 2017 09:11 PM
Last Post: RainbowUnicorn
  What are the odds? The Flip Side of Optimism About Life on Other Planets C C 0 760 Aug 12, 2015 10:57 PM
Last Post: C C



Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)