Jul 25, 2016 03:59 AM
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/07/on...arity.html
EXCERPT: [...] This new book from best-selling AI writer Calum Chace argues that within a few decades, most humans will not be able to work for money. [...] Faster computers, the availability of large data sets, and the persistence of pioneering researchers have finally rendered [deep learning] effective this decade, leading to “all the impressive computing demos” referred to by Robin Hanson in chapter 3.3, along with some early applications. But the major applications are still waiting in the wings, poised to take the stage.
[...] It’s time to answer the question: is it really different this time? Will machine intelligence automate most human jobs within the next few decades, and leave a large minority of people – perhaps a majority – unable to gain paid employment? It seems to me that you have to accept that this proposition is at least possible if you admit the following three premises:
1. It is possible to automate the cognitive and manual tasks that we carry out to do our jobs.
2. Machine intelligence is approaching or overtaking our ability to ingest, process and pass on data presented in visual form and in natural language.
3. Machine intelligence is improving at an exponential rate. This rate may or may not slow a little in the coming years, but it will continue to be very fast. No doubt it is still possible to reject one or more of these premises, but for me, the evidence assembled in this chapter makes that hard....
EXCERPT: [...] This new book from best-selling AI writer Calum Chace argues that within a few decades, most humans will not be able to work for money. [...] Faster computers, the availability of large data sets, and the persistence of pioneering researchers have finally rendered [deep learning] effective this decade, leading to “all the impressive computing demos” referred to by Robin Hanson in chapter 3.3, along with some early applications. But the major applications are still waiting in the wings, poised to take the stage.
[...] It’s time to answer the question: is it really different this time? Will machine intelligence automate most human jobs within the next few decades, and leave a large minority of people – perhaps a majority – unable to gain paid employment? It seems to me that you have to accept that this proposition is at least possible if you admit the following three premises:
1. It is possible to automate the cognitive and manual tasks that we carry out to do our jobs.
2. Machine intelligence is approaching or overtaking our ability to ingest, process and pass on data presented in visual form and in natural language.
3. Machine intelligence is improving at an exponential rate. This rate may or may not slow a little in the coming years, but it will continue to be very fast. No doubt it is still possible to reject one or more of these premises, but for me, the evidence assembled in this chapter makes that hard....