9 hours ago
This next year will bring a whole wave of elections in the various European countries. Here's how they appear to stack up, according to the National Pulse
Bulgaria
Bulgaria holds its presidential election on October 25th, 2026. Current President Iliana Yotova, backed by Prime Minister Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria movement, leads the field by a wide margin in recent surveys. A Yotova victory would lock in the preference for a negotiated settlement in Ukraine over continued arms shipments to Kyiv, giving war hawk voices less weight in EU foreign policy.
Spain
Spain will vote on November 29th, 2026, after Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called a snap election. Multiple polls put the center/squishy-right People’s Party in the lead, with populist-nationalist Vox doing well enough to give both parties an absolute majority if they work together. The currently ruling Socialist Workers’ Party is facing intense criticism for pushing an amnesty supposedly for 500,000 illegal aliens. (More than a million applied for the amnesty.) The mass migrant crossings into Ceuta has pushed immigration, where the Socialists are weakest, to the top of Spanish issues.
France.
The first round of France’s presidential election falls on April 18th, 2027. Marine Le Pen of the National Rally (RN) party leads first-round surveys, which she has done before but lost in the second round when the other parties united against her. This time, polls suggest she might win the second round. In September, National Rally president Jordan Bardella signed a memorandum of understanding with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party at the latter’s conference. The document commits both sides, if in power, to intercept migrant boats in the English Channel and return their passengers to France pending ultimate repatriation to their countries of origin. It also calls for shared costs and tighter controls on illegal working and welfare access. A Le Pen presidency would place a longstanding critic of open borders at the head of a founding EU member and radically alter discussions on migration returns and EU integration.
Italy.
Italy must hold parliamentary elections by December 2027. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy) continues to be Italy's most popular individual party (there are lots of parties). Italian conservatives and President Trump in the US have been critical about the surprisingly slow pace with which Meloni has addressed her campaign promises and her apparent willingness to court the EU establishment in Brussels. This has led to the rise of increased populist opposition to her right. But her government has begun to record some modest results in reducing seaborne migration. Deals with Tunisia and Libya, reinforced border measures, and a potentially trend-setting offshore processing center in Albania have contributed.
Poland.
Poland’s parliamentary election is due by autumn 2027. Globalist and pro-EU Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition leads individual polls, yet the combined strength of the formerly governing Law and Justice party (PiS), the populist-nationalist Konfederacja (Confederation), and smaller national-conservative groupings remains substantial enough that cooperation among them could produce a right-leaning coalition government. The right already holds the Polish presidency. A stronger parliamentary result for the right in 2027 would likely orient the country further away from permissive immigration policies, climate politics, and a relaxed attitude towards migration.
Germany.
Germany holds multiple state elections in 2027. The eurosceptic, anti-mass migration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party leads national polls after winning nearly 44 percent in eastern Germany's Saxony-Anhalt. Germany’s establishment parties have responded by renewing discussion on potentially banning the populist party.
Estonia.
Estonia votes on March 7th, 2027. The national-conservative Isamaa has frequently led or placed near the top of the polls.
Finland.
The populist Finns Party is already part of the governing center-right coalition. The Social Democrats are challenging.
Greece.
Greece is scheduled to vote by late July. PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis’s center-right New Democracy holds a clear lead.
Slovakia.
Robert Fico’s currently ruling Smer-SD faces progressive opponents in a close race. Fico has questioned the automatic invocation of NATO’s Article 5, resumed military attaché contacts with Russia, and opposed EU financial packages for Kiev that he argues will prolong the war in Ukraine, instead pushing for negotiations.
Bulgaria
Bulgaria holds its presidential election on October 25th, 2026. Current President Iliana Yotova, backed by Prime Minister Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria movement, leads the field by a wide margin in recent surveys. A Yotova victory would lock in the preference for a negotiated settlement in Ukraine over continued arms shipments to Kyiv, giving war hawk voices less weight in EU foreign policy.
Spain
Spain will vote on November 29th, 2026, after Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called a snap election. Multiple polls put the center/squishy-right People’s Party in the lead, with populist-nationalist Vox doing well enough to give both parties an absolute majority if they work together. The currently ruling Socialist Workers’ Party is facing intense criticism for pushing an amnesty supposedly for 500,000 illegal aliens. (More than a million applied for the amnesty.) The mass migrant crossings into Ceuta has pushed immigration, where the Socialists are weakest, to the top of Spanish issues.
France.
The first round of France’s presidential election falls on April 18th, 2027. Marine Le Pen of the National Rally (RN) party leads first-round surveys, which she has done before but lost in the second round when the other parties united against her. This time, polls suggest she might win the second round. In September, National Rally president Jordan Bardella signed a memorandum of understanding with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party at the latter’s conference. The document commits both sides, if in power, to intercept migrant boats in the English Channel and return their passengers to France pending ultimate repatriation to their countries of origin. It also calls for shared costs and tighter controls on illegal working and welfare access. A Le Pen presidency would place a longstanding critic of open borders at the head of a founding EU member and radically alter discussions on migration returns and EU integration.
Italy.
Italy must hold parliamentary elections by December 2027. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy) continues to be Italy's most popular individual party (there are lots of parties). Italian conservatives and President Trump in the US have been critical about the surprisingly slow pace with which Meloni has addressed her campaign promises and her apparent willingness to court the EU establishment in Brussels. This has led to the rise of increased populist opposition to her right. But her government has begun to record some modest results in reducing seaborne migration. Deals with Tunisia and Libya, reinforced border measures, and a potentially trend-setting offshore processing center in Albania have contributed.
Poland.
Poland’s parliamentary election is due by autumn 2027. Globalist and pro-EU Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition leads individual polls, yet the combined strength of the formerly governing Law and Justice party (PiS), the populist-nationalist Konfederacja (Confederation), and smaller national-conservative groupings remains substantial enough that cooperation among them could produce a right-leaning coalition government. The right already holds the Polish presidency. A stronger parliamentary result for the right in 2027 would likely orient the country further away from permissive immigration policies, climate politics, and a relaxed attitude towards migration.
Germany.
Germany holds multiple state elections in 2027. The eurosceptic, anti-mass migration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party leads national polls after winning nearly 44 percent in eastern Germany's Saxony-Anhalt. Germany’s establishment parties have responded by renewing discussion on potentially banning the populist party.
Estonia.
Estonia votes on March 7th, 2027. The national-conservative Isamaa has frequently led or placed near the top of the polls.
Finland.
The populist Finns Party is already part of the governing center-right coalition. The Social Democrats are challenging.
Greece.
Greece is scheduled to vote by late July. PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis’s center-right New Democracy holds a clear lead.
Slovakia.
Robert Fico’s currently ruling Smer-SD faces progressive opponents in a close race. Fico has questioned the automatic invocation of NATO’s Article 5, resumed military attaché contacts with Russia, and opposed EU financial packages for Kiev that he argues will prolong the war in Ukraine, instead pushing for negotiations.